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This stat will be the difference in the game
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:39 am
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:39 am
Ole Miss is 35% on 3rd down. 94th in the country
LSU is 58%. Good for 10th
Ole Miss will hit some chunk plays but when it’s scheme vs scheme I think we have big advantages.
LSU is 58%. Good for 10th
Ole Miss will hit some chunk plays but when it’s scheme vs scheme I think we have big advantages.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:48 am to Purple Spoon
I think lsu wins comfortably assuming Sam doesn’t completely shite the bed.
Ole Miss does not have any advantage in this game other than playing at home.
Ole Miss does not have any advantage in this game other than playing at home.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:49 am to Purple Spoon
quote:
Ole Miss is 35% on 3rd down. 94th in the country
Too make it worse for them, what are the numbers for LSUs defense on third down
Outside of backups in garbage time, has the defense given up just 2 third down conversions?
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:51 am to Pikes Peak Tiger
quote:
Outside of backups in garbage time, has the defense given up just 2 third down conversions?
yes, and on one we stripped the ball and recovered the fumble
we're 5th in the nation in defensive 3rd down conversion rate
This post was edited on 9/16/26 at 9:53 am
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:54 am to Purple Spoon
I agree. They will be zone heavy. We will need to have our short passing game working if we can’t run it better than last week
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:58 am to Purple Spoon
I disagree. If LSU can keep the turnover battle at -2 or better (don’t even have to win it), LSU wins.
Defense is too stout to give up many long drives, and the offense is plenty capable of putting up points. LSU offense can’t give OM free points.
Defense is too stout to give up many long drives, and the offense is plenty capable of putting up points. LSU offense can’t give OM free points.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:59 am to Rummeltigah
Uh, what? They have several advantages. This board thinks Ole Miss is weirdly lacking talent. You realize they dumped money on their roster like LSU did right? They're breaking in a new OC/HC. They have a big advantage at QB and RB. Chambliss is the best QB in the SEC.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 9:59 am to Purple Spoon
Leavitt will throw for 350+
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:00 am to Pikes Peak Tiger
quote:
Outside of backups in garbage time, has the defense given up just 2 third down conversions?
Clemson they only converted one 3rd down, which was on the final drive with backups in
LA Tech there was a 3rd down conversion via penalty (Pickett PI), then a 3rd down conversion on that long TD play with the backups in, then the next drive the backups let them convert a 3rd down, and then the starters went back in on the ensuing 3rd and 4th down to get the final stop.
By my count the only 3rd down conversion the starters have allowed came via penalty, the other three on the season so far were the backups
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:00 am to Purple Spoon
IF we can keep them in 3rd and long situations I like our chances over the course of the entire game.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:02 am to Purple Spoon
2 games in. And one of those against a terrible team. The other was against Tech who wasn’t much to brag about.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:05 am to Purple Spoon
quote:
stat will be the difference in the game
Turnover margin
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:08 am to Purple Spoon
I don’t think the first team defense has giving up a third down yet this year
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:13 am to friendlyobservation
quote:
They have a big advantage at QB and RB. Chambliss is the best QB in the SEC.
No one said that they don’t have a lot of talent. You realize the QBs don’t play each other correct? The advantage you’re looking at comparing is LSU’s QB vs their DBs and Ole Miss’s QB vs LSU’s DBs
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:14 am to how333
He's forcing balls because his OL in front of him is terrible. Outside Seaton/Moore that line is not good. The right side is a massive liability. Davis looks like last year. I saw in the LT game he fell on his butt twice by some mid level DE and got Sam to throw the ball faster. This is a massive concern in the game. If I was Ole Miss I'd load that side up and bring the heat from that side always. Davis can't handle it. You don't even need to blitz from his side. He's so bad. I have no idea why LSU kept him and didn't make a bigger effort to keep some of the other guys who showed potential. He looked bad at times in the Clemson game as well. You're not noticing it as much because Sam is not a statue in the pocket. 9/10 the pressures on him are coming from the right side.
This post was edited on 9/16/26 at 10:20 am
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:16 am to vidtiger23
quote:
No one said that they don’t have a lot of talent.
quote:
Ole Miss does not have any advantage in this game other than playing at home.
Sounds like he's implying they don't have heavy talent in several areas on the roster. It's under the radar but Ole Miss probably spent close to what LSU did for their roster.
This post was edited on 9/16/26 at 10:18 am
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:19 am to Purple Spoon
1 thing not mentioned is QB scrambling/rushing yards. Keep the OLD QB in the pocket and it's over pretty quick. Until we see a Blake Baker defense contain the qb run it's always going to be an issue.
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:19 am to tigerfoot
quote:
I agree. They will be zone heavy. We will need to have our short passing game working if we can’t run it better than last week
Lane obviously gets the benefit of the doubt, but I'm surprised we haven't seen a little more of Berry at the RB spot. Jones appears to be LSU's best all-around RB. He seems to have good vision, balance, and ability to shed some tackles. But he doesn't seem to have true game-changing speed that scares defenses or can allow a back to get outside even if the blocking isn't great.
It's early, but it appears the weakness of LSU's OL is the interior OL. The strength of OM's defense looks to be the middle (DT and LB). That might make it tough for LSU to run inside consistently
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:23 am to Alt26
I read Berry is hurt and limited. Might be why you haven't been seeing him splitting him out at WR or things like that. You're correct their DT is very good and this is why I'm worried. LSU right side gets Sam killed and Bo is a bit undersized as well.
Kiffin pretty much said it before the season the things that are manifesting now. He was concerned about OL, WR, and defensive depth. All 3 things have reared their ugly head in 2 games. He said it but people weren't paying attention apparently.
Kiffin pretty much said it before the season the things that are manifesting now. He was concerned about OL, WR, and defensive depth. All 3 things have reared their ugly head in 2 games. He said it but people weren't paying attention apparently.
This post was edited on 9/16/26 at 10:24 am
Posted on 9/16/26 at 10:25 am to Purple Spoon
I genuinely don't think they'll be able to methodically move the ball like they want to. They'll live and die by the shot play and the question becomes: are we already up when they hit it, and by how much... Conversely, they're probably going to sack us a few times and cause havoc in the backfield. We need to get on the board first and establish the outside run to keep their edges honest.
If they hit a shot play to make it 17-7, we'll be fine and we'll be able to control TOP. If they hit it early and go up 7-0 it changes the flow of the game in a really meaningful way.
If they hit a shot play to make it 17-7, we'll be fine and we'll be able to control TOP. If they hit it early and go up 7-0 it changes the flow of the game in a really meaningful way.
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