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Posted on 9/21/26 at 11:14 am to MilkJug
We simply have to get to 7-1. 2-1 in the next stretch with two at home is absolutely possible
Posted on 9/21/26 at 11:16 am to MilkJug
Agreed. But every year you have people that come on here after week two and say “we are favored in every game for the rest of the year” as if it means we’ll win them all.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 11:32 am to MilkJug
If we beat aTm this weekend we could go 9-3. If we lose 8-4 or 7-5 that is just the facts.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 11:39 am to Jack Crevalle
quote:
Your model has LSU favored by 12 against A&M? 3.5 more than Vegas. That's a lot of points for that spread.
DraftKings has LSU -9.5. But whatever, you're comparing apples and oranges. Football scores don't increase by one. They increase (mostly) by 3 and 7. So calculating some percentage difference between two spreads doesn't make a lot of sense. This isn't baseball.
My model sees LSU getting one more field goal than Vegas sees.. do you think that is some massive difference or something?
Posted on 9/21/26 at 11:45 am to DustyDinkleman
All of this
Posted on 9/21/26 at 11:54 am to MilkJug
What did this model say about the Ole Miss game?
I'll hang up and listen.
I'll hang up and listen.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 11:59 am to MilkJug
quote:
Football scores don't increase by one.
Right, but potential scores can run anything from 2 on up (it's just the "baseball" scores are relatively uncommon - even a "football" one 6-3 is relatively uncommon in modern CFB).
Now, the most common margins are not in 1s - that much is true - that's why the most common margins are: 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 24, 28, and 31 - because that's how scoring usually goes once a team has scored. Safeties are very rare.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:01 pm to MilkJug
This post was edited on 9/21/26 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:01 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
What did this model say about the Ole Miss game?
Similar to Vegas
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:02 pm to Dez
EVERY WEEKEND will be a battle going forward.
Even Arkansas.
Even Arkansas.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:03 pm to BearCrocs
Not feeling-12 v. aggy, but fully agree it's a must win.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:04 pm to MilkJug
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:06 pm to Ace Midnight
I think you missed his point. His point was "12" is ~50% more than 8.5. So, percentage-wise, my spread of 12 "isn't close" to Vegas' spread of 8.5. And that's just a disingenuous statement. Because football scores don't increase by one. They increase by 3 and 7 (mostly).
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:07 pm to Ebridg3
Yeah, that's sanity. Folks need to come to reality.
Yes, it is always better to lose early than late, even in 2026. However, losing this game to this team at this time, almost certainly sets the table for 3 losses MINIMUM and the likelihood of an 8-4 season is the best bet at this point.
Even 9-3 (which could be a stretch at this point) would likely not be enough. LSU can afford only 1 more loss before it becomes "every game is do or die from now on" as early as Saturday.
#Nextyearbawsnextyear
Yes, it is always better to lose early than late, even in 2026. However, losing this game to this team at this time, almost certainly sets the table for 3 losses MINIMUM and the likelihood of an 8-4 season is the best bet at this point.
Even 9-3 (which could be a stretch at this point) would likely not be enough. LSU can afford only 1 more loss before it becomes "every game is do or die from now on" as early as Saturday.
#Nextyearbawsnextyear
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:08 pm to MilkJug
quote:
They increase by 3 and 7 (mostly).
Did you miss where I posted the most common margins?
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:33 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Did you miss where I posted the most common margins?
You still aren't understanding. Don't worry about it.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 12:35 pm to Hot Carl
quote:
look at that schedule, and it looks WAY more daunting today than it did Friday. October is not as “catch-your-breath” easy as we expected it to be. @UK and MSU at home aren’t just roll your helmet out there and win games to me now. And I’m not shitting on our team at all, I just think our injuries are brutal and our lack of depth at certain positions has been exposed.
Agreed. The depth on this team is not good at all.
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