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MilkJug
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 230 |
| Registered on: | 11/10/2025 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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Tom Murphy (covers Ar-kansas) has LSU unranked
Posted by MilkJug on 8/17/26 at 11:40 am
and Clemson at #20... ? :lol:
16
re: The best and worst LSU teams since 1960
Posted by MilkJug on 7/19/26 at 10:16 am to NorthshoreTiger76
quote:
They have 1992 team better than 1993? I don’t know about that one
It's not a ranking. It's simply sorted by Average Margin of Victory descending.
quote:
Suggest adding another column with the Head Coach at that time ?
updated OP
'58 would be #6 on this list
'59 would be #28
'59 would be #28
The best and worst LSU teams since 1960
Posted by MilkJug on 7/18/26 at 7:13 pm
Sorted by Average Margin of Victory
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/18/26 at 6:34 pm to Gatorbait2008
who? what year? wtf are you talking about?
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/17/26 at 4:33 pm to Gatorbait2008
I've always thought '01 Miami was a little overrated. Yes, they had a lot of 1st round picks and great NFL players. But what they actually did on the field at Miami has been overrated.
Don't twist my words, I think they are a top 10 team all time (don't know where I would put them), I just don't think they're top 3.
They played and beat one.. ONE top 15 team that year (Nebraska). Could they have beaten more, absolutely, but they didn't play them. As opposed to a team like 2016 Alabama who beat 9 ranked teams. I'm not saying 2016 Bama was better, but they at least proved themselves against a much tougher schedule. 2019 LSU played and beat 7 top 10 teams. The only thing that Miami team can say, relative to other all-time great teams, is "we had a lot of NFL players".
Don't twist my words, I think they are a top 10 team all time (don't know where I would put them), I just don't think they're top 3.
They played and beat one.. ONE top 15 team that year (Nebraska). Could they have beaten more, absolutely, but they didn't play them. As opposed to a team like 2016 Alabama who beat 9 ranked teams. I'm not saying 2016 Bama was better, but they at least proved themselves against a much tougher schedule. 2019 LSU played and beat 7 top 10 teams. The only thing that Miami team can say, relative to other all-time great teams, is "we had a lot of NFL players".
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/17/26 at 9:42 am to bamabaseballsec
quote:
but there is zero chance any of the teams pre 90s have a shot at beating an above average modern(bcs era to present) college football team.
quote:
As opposed to the OP list, this is not predicting who would beat who. This is simply a measure of how dominant a team was against the field in the season they played.
I guess even putting it in bold doesn't make you people read it..
This is a "ranking". As opposed to the OP list, this is not predicting who would beat who. This is simply a measure of how dominant a team was against the field in the season they played. Running up the score is not rewarded, pulling starters late in the game is not punishing. It considers strength of schedule, quality wins, and bad losses.
* obviously, I don't have a solution yet for the Covid year. I'm trying to find an accurate, non-biased way of handling that. Anomalies are tough to deal with. I'd like to use injury and absence data, which I can already kind of do by inferring absences based on a player not having stats - the problem with this is that offensive lineman don't record stats and it's also common for defensive players to not record stats. For example, there are many games where a lockdown corner doesn't record a stat, because the other team didn't throw his way. Also, DLs have games where they don't record stats. So that was too inaccurate, so I took it out. I need actual depth chart data. I've been scouring the internet and this is really hard to find. Certainly hard to find going back decades.
This is 1960 forward. I do have an all-time ranking list. You'll notice there are a lot of ties, which I'm ok with. This is more like "buckets" of the best teams ever.
* obviously, I don't have a solution yet for the Covid year. I'm trying to find an accurate, non-biased way of handling that. Anomalies are tough to deal with. I'd like to use injury and absence data, which I can already kind of do by inferring absences based on a player not having stats - the problem with this is that offensive lineman don't record stats and it's also common for defensive players to not record stats. For example, there are many games where a lockdown corner doesn't record a stat, because the other team didn't throw his way. Also, DLs have games where they don't record stats. So that was too inaccurate, so I took it out. I need actual depth chart data. I've been scouring the internet and this is really hard to find. Certainly hard to find going back decades.
This is 1960 forward. I do have an all-time ranking list. You'll notice there are a lot of ties, which I'm ok with. This is more like "buckets" of the best teams ever.
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/15/26 at 8:07 am to Tigerpride18
quote:
my model has
1.1995 Nebraska
2.2019 LSU
3.01 Miami
4.2020 Bama
let's get a vote and see which people think is better
Right now, I have a Fan Poll on the site and you can go submit your ballot. But that's only for the current season. But I can add an all-time Fan Poll (Best teams of all time poll) if yall want.
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/15/26 at 8:04 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
Are game results biased? We saw that 2019 LSU is better than 2019 Clemson.
It is kind of biased for "power rating", shown by my list of rematches a couple pages back. But if we want a true "ranking" and If we think head-to-head should get a boost, then we factor that in.
Again, just so it makes sense...
2021 Bama beat Georgia 41-24. Did the better team win that day?
Because Georgia went on to beat Bama 33-18 in the NC game. The best team doesn't always win. In fact, just from the head-to-head that year, we can't tell if Bama or Georgia is the better team - that's why power ratings lean on the entire body of work. And that's why both my model and Vegas had Georgia beating Bama in the NC game.
quote:
I called your formula retarded not you personally as you’ve called me twice.
You're right. You didn't call me retarded and I shouldn't get personal. And it's really not personal to me.
There is a "rhyme or reason" to these models. If you go look at the data, in it's entirety, it's make sense. You and I thinking LSU would beat OSU is merely our opinions (and we're also biased). We are absolutely convinced that LSU would beat OSU. But in reality, they could very well lose. To think OSU being a 3 to 4.5 point favorite over that LSU team is absurd or "retarded" is simply not understanding both teams. And you said "I don't mean to be a homer about this" - but that's exactly what you're doing. That OSU team was VERY good. They were beating Clemson and they lapsed on one drive, and it bit them, it was too late. LSU almost fell victim to the same thing against Bama and Auburn. But you also can't apply transitive property to this - just because LSU beat Clemson and Clemson beat OSU, doesn't mean LSU would curb stomp OSU. That's not how that works.
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/15/26 at 7:41 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
In all honesty, lets see how your prediction model does this up coming season.
It's setup and ready. But I'm not releasing my model until week 5. These models are nowhere near accurate enough until it has a few weeks to work with.
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/14/26 at 8:15 pm to BigScoreboard
Sorry, and I honestly don't mean this to be rude, but '98 Tennessee is one of the least impressive National Champs I've ever seen. They're very similar to '07 LSU.
quote:
That would be tough to gauge. They’re all older now.
:lol: I take this as you get it now...
Dude, if LSU and OSU played tomorrow and we have fricking Joe Burrow and Chase and Jefferson and CEH - I'm riding LSU 100 times out of 100. I think LSU would win. I don't think it would be a blowout, but I think the boys would get it done. And then guess what - the models would change.
LSU is behind Clemson still because LSU was far behind Clemson going into that game - and it's all because of defense. LSU's defense was very porous that year. The offense was just so frickin good that it (almost) didn't matter.
So you don't know what it is... It's not a ranking. It's a raw production rating (or index). A measure of a teams raw production (or strength) over their entire body of work - pitted against a league average team (that's what the actual number is - OSU would be favored by 33.7 points over the league average team - which was Purdue that year, per my model and ESPN's model). That's as simple as I can put it. Do you understand all that?
If 2019 OSU played 2019 LSU tomorrow, ESPN would have OSU as a 3 point favorite on a neutral field. My model would have OSU as a 4.5 point favorite. Why? over their entire body of work, OSU showed to have a really good offense and a really good defense. LSU, over their entire body of work, showed to have a really good offense and a "meh" defense at times. If you cannot see any reason why this makes any sense (which you've already implied), then you, my friend, are the retard.
If 2019 OSU played 2019 LSU tomorrow, ESPN would have OSU as a 3 point favorite on a neutral field. My model would have OSU as a 4.5 point favorite. Why? over their entire body of work, OSU showed to have a really good offense and a really good defense. LSU, over their entire body of work, showed to have a really good offense and a "meh" defense at times. If you cannot see any reason why this makes any sense (which you've already implied), then you, my friend, are the retard.
quote:
A formula that spits out 2019 LSU 17 places behind an Ohio State and behind a Clemson team that beat Ohio State on a neutral field and got their shite pushed in by LSU is retarded.
Maybe you just don't understand what the rating actually means, and what it's saying.
1. "17 spots" is simply you not wrapping your head around how many team-seasons there have been since 1960. The difference between 2019 OSU and 2019 LSU is 4.5 points.
2. What is more likely: ESPN's data analysts are a bunch of retards OR Tarpon08 is a retard?
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/14/26 at 7:09 pm to Gatorbait2008
How about we do this - for fun. I'll create a new model, we'll use my current model as a base. But yall tell me what things should weighted and give me relative weights. Then I'll plug them and spit out the results.
We can't do cross-era though, it's just to noisy and there's too much variance. We'll have to pick a specific season.
Who's first? This is going to require unbiased discussion. Are you people capable of doing that? :lol:
We can't do cross-era though, it's just to noisy and there's too much variance. We'll have to pick a specific season.
Who's first? This is going to require unbiased discussion. Are you people capable of doing that? :lol:
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/14/26 at 6:54 pm to vidtiger23
quote:
Well others found a way. You should as well if you want a good model.
I've thought about extending my model. Not changing the predictive ability part, because that part is really good, but taking the rating results from it and adding things to it to do more of a "ranking", but it just seems disingenuous. Seems like that would include too much bias input.
quote:
Dude just take a look at your list, cut your losses, and admit the formula you used spit out retarded results.
It's not retarded and it's not a formula. It uses proven, iterative algorithms and it's virtually as accurate as you can get at predicting scores. The list I posted here was just me sorting all the teams by their overall ratings. It's simply a raw-production ranking. A ranking that actually scales each year to a common platform would look a lot different - but I think it would tell a less accurate story. For example, it would probably have 1966 ND in the top 5 - because they shutout 6 teams. It would be a relative-dominance type ranking.
re: Top 25 teams since 1960 (power ratings)
Posted by MilkJug on 7/14/26 at 6:13 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
No shite. Well, other better models have found a way to take out garbage time. Maybe you should find a way as well.
Can you list these models?
I know SP+ does a few after-the-fact things because his model is meant to rank teams. My model isn't meant to rank teams, it's meant to predict scores - the team rank is just a by-product from the ratings that I have to determine.
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