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MilkJug
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 357 |
| Registered on: | 11/10/2025 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
quote:
Weird cope , to everyone else this just makes LSU sound overrated
I don't care what it sounds like to you. Can you think of another impressive win Ole Miss has this year?
2
quote:
So why is Florida rated above Mizzou?
One game doesn't define a team's rating. It looks at your entire resume, and the resume of the teams you've played.
If Florida and Mizzou were to play tomorrow on a neutral field, the model would have the game as a pickem.
quote:
This is more a personal issue than coaching from what I have witnessed.
Personal to who?
quote:
IF somehow Ole Miss can go 9-3 after what I have seen of this defense it would be an incredible job by Golding.
Don't act like yall haven't put up Heisman campaign billboards for two of your players... You all thought you had a better team (and coach) than you really have. You won your 2026 Super Bowl, congrats.
re: Week 6 Power Ratings and SEC predictions
Posted by MilkJug on 10/5/26 at 3:09 pm to Gator Fever
The model has Florida v SC as a closer game than Vegas. I think Florida covers the Vegas spread. Sumrall will have his guys make a statement, imo.
re: Week 6 Power Ratings and SEC predictions
Posted by MilkJug on 10/5/26 at 3:07 pm to GreenieTiger
quote:
But if you question anything, Jug of Milk yells: YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Nope, if you question something, I explain it. If you make ignorant assumptions about it, that's when I say you don't know how it works.
If you're wondering where Ole Miss is, Louisville lost again, Charlotte is 0-5, and Florida lost big. Model sees the only impressive thing they've done is beat LSU at home by 8 points.
Week 6 Power Ratings and SEC predictions
Posted by MilkJug on 10/4/26 at 7:29 pm
Model is really high on Bama right now.
re: Week 5 Power Ratings and SEC predictions
Posted by MilkJug on 9/27/26 at 4:16 pm to GreenieTiger
quote:
I understand how your model works
You don't
quote:
Based on what? You have to be applying some kind of data weighting and analysis, or is this just your feels?
I'm not weighting anything by hand.
Every FBS (games against FCS opponents are ignored) game this season goes into one big system of equations. The unknowns are each team's offense and defense rating, plus league-average scoring and home-field advantage:
Home score = league avg + home offense - away defense + home advantage (~3)
Away score = league avg + away offense - home defense
Ridge regression solves all of it at once. A team's rating is fit against the specific opponents that team played. What the model is "trying" to do is achieve the lowest MAE (Mean Absolute Error) possible - which is the whole point of the model - the outcome is the ratings/score predictions.
A Kalman filter then updates the ratings week to week, so a blowout 4 weeks ago counts for less than the most recent game a team played - the reason for this is that teams get better (and some worse) throughout the season. It's about a 5% decay each week. But this isn't intuitively "weighted", that "5%" is not a number I chose. The Kalman filter adjusts this decay itself accordingly to reach it's lowest MAE possible.
How does it know it's current MAE? It tests itself against previous games.
So it's not a bunch of dials that I decided matters. It's literally all just Math - and admittedly, football is more than just Math - there are a lot of unknowns and noise that effect the outcomes of games - which is why we like it so much.
quote:
Can you post your ratings from last year at the end of the regular season?
I don't keep weekly snapshots of ratings. I have the ratings from the day after the national championship last season.
re: Week 5 Power Ratings and SEC predictions
Posted by MilkJug on 9/27/26 at 3:25 pm to GreenieTiger
quote:
Northwestern making these list means your entire system is broken. No need to explain to us "tards".
Most teams have only played 1, maybe two good teams. And if they do good against those good teams, the model is going to be high on them - simply because of the lack of data. Northwestern blew out Colorado and almost beat Indiana. The model's ratings change week to week as it gathers more data.
But, yes, you are a tard and I don't expect you to understand how any of this works.
re: Week 5 Power Ratings and SEC predictions
Posted by MilkJug on 9/27/26 at 3:08 pm to narddogg81
quote:
what is this nonsense based on?
Bayesian ridge regression with a Kalman filter.
It's only goal is to predict the spread first, then the total. Football scores are extremely noisy, which is why they are hard to predict. When Vegas releases their spreads, they're based on a similar model to mine. Then Vegas lets the market take over to push or pull the spread.
My model (over a season) hits and misses at pretty much the same clip as Vegas.
quote:
Western Michigan beating Penn State
Either you meant Wisconsin, or the joke went over my head.
But yes, you are correct - that is how the model works.
Week 5 Power Ratings and SEC predictions
Posted by MilkJug on 9/27/26 at 10:53 am
This is not a ranking, though many of you will not understand that. This is simply a measure of who would be favored over who on a neutral field - that's it. It doesn't consider merit or who deserves what.
An example for the tards: Notre Dame (28.2) would be a 6 point favorite over Florida (22.2) on a neutral field, because 28.2 - 22.2 = 6.
An example for the tards: Notre Dame (28.2) would be a 6 point favorite over Florida (22.2) on a neutral field, because 28.2 - 22.2 = 6.
re: Detailed AI investigation of the SECRant for LSU vs. Ole Miss
Posted by MilkJug on 9/22/26 at 4:34 pm to DarthRebel
You are the one who doesn't understand numbers.
You're own post says there is a higher concentration of Ole Miss fans posting about LSU.
LSU has a higher volume, because, like you said LSU fans outnumber Ole Miss fans on here 10:1.
The point you think you are making has backfired on you.
The numbers show Ole Miss fans are more obsessed with LSU.
You're own post says there is a higher concentration of Ole Miss fans posting about LSU.
quote:
while Ole Miss posters produced a smaller but highly concentrated response
LSU has a higher volume, because, like you said LSU fans outnumber Ole Miss fans on here 10:1.
The point you think you are making has backfired on you.
The numbers show Ole Miss fans are more obsessed with LSU.
re: Finally an explanation bout why Ole Miss went for two so early
Posted by MilkJug on 9/22/26 at 3:20 pm to KCSunshine
While this was happening, I figured they went for 2 because they knew lane would go for 2 and if they didn't get it, they are confident enough in their kicker and Chambliss to be able to get 3 points to win the game.
It was smart coaching - probably not Golding's idea...
It was smart coaching - probably not Golding's idea...
re: Detailed AI investigation of the SECRant for LSU vs. Ole Miss
Posted by MilkJug on 9/22/26 at 3:13 pm to DarthRebel
re: How many of you actually think Ole Miss will be relevant after this year?
Posted by MilkJug on 9/22/26 at 8:47 am to 03 West CoChamps
quote:
When he was told he couldn't coach the playoffs he gave the staff an ultimatum to get on the plane right now or they won't have a job.
There's no evidence for this.
quote:
Then immediately started tampering with the players who were getting ready to play in the playoffs.
Everyone does this, including your panic-hire coach.
quote:
Then he told vanity fair that Oxford was racist.
No, he did not. He said the external perception of Oxford was that it was racist, which isn't true, and hurt recruiting.
You are mad he left you for a better job.
re: How many of you actually think Ole Miss will be relevant after this year?
Posted by MilkJug on 9/22/26 at 8:20 am to BroomfieldReb
quote:
We're happy we beat the guy who literally try to burn the program down
How did he try to burn the program down? Wtf are you talking about? He left for a better job. It happens every year.
He is the only reason why you are relevant in 2026.
quote:
Yes, the irony being that Lane’s departure was the greatest gift Ole Miss could’ve ever received.
So that's why yall have been crying about this for 10 months???
That's why this game meant so much to you???
That's why yall yelled "frick Lane Kiffin" all day??? lmao because you're so glad he's gone??
riiiiight...
re: How many of you actually think Ole Miss will be relevant after this year?
Posted by MilkJug on 9/22/26 at 8:10 am to BroomfieldReb
quote:
Man, take the L and move on...it's over
I've moved on from the game. We beat ourselves in a lot of areas. Despite Chambliss being unstoppable, we still should have won. First year under new staff/system, these things happen.
I'm posting because it seems Ole Miss fans think they are on top of the world right now. Which is sad, they aren't happy they beat LSU, they're happy they beat the guy who left them for a better job and they wish they still had him because they know their current coach isn't good enough.
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