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re: LSU predicted to be 11-1 using ESPN percentage analytics
Posted on 7/20/26 at 4:46 pm to SECCaptain
Posted on 7/20/26 at 4:46 pm to SECCaptain
quote:
Add up the probabilities to get the real prediction, which is 8.567-3.433
Bro that's some serious deep ciphering there.
1
Posted on 7/20/26 at 9:04 pm to Tiger fan999
This is all complete bullshite.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 10:00 pm to 0
quote:
3-1. I think Aggies win after LSU wins an extremely emotional game the week before. It will be close though
I just got off the phone with a coach, he’s played at one of the SEC schools, and coached at 4 of them.
As for the OC at aTm, he tells me the guy has never called a college play, has never coached QB’s. This is much like Kelly tried last season, but even then, our OC had way more experience.
Plus, aTm comes to Tiger Stadium.
A little more, what team led the SEC with INT’s (17), last season? What defense finished 5th with points allowed (19.8) in the SEC?
As bad as our offense was, 3 and out, turnovers, etc. The Defense really played well, only averaging giving up 19.8 ppg.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 11:30 pm to Keith13
quote:
S Clemson really that bad?
Have you seen their "tiny cannon"?
Posted on 7/21/26 at 5:26 am to 6R12
Not really. It’s fairly straightforward math.
I’m shocked that people are comfortable enough with these game-by-game FPI predictions to base optimistic season predictions on them, while arguing strongly against someone taking the FPI predictions at face value and calculating what they actually suggest for the season.
I’m shocked that people are comfortable enough with these game-by-game FPI predictions to base optimistic season predictions on them, while arguing strongly against someone taking the FPI predictions at face value and calculating what they actually suggest for the season.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 6:13 am to Tiger fan999
Looks fairly reasonable except that 36% hosting Texas.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 6:15 am to SECCaptain
quote:
Add up the probabilities to get the real prediction, which is 8.567-3.433
When you’re so “smart” you think the REAL prediction of wins and losses is rounded to 3 decimal places
Posted on 7/21/26 at 6:22 am to Tiger fan999
quote:
but pretty interesting how highly ESPN thinks of us
It's pretty interesting that ESPN hasn't figured out how to tweak its AI model into hating us.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 8:47 am to Forever
He’s using the data provided by ESPN, which calculated (based on their FPI model) out to three decimal places.
He’s simply taking that at face value and offering how it would predict a season W/L number.
Are you arguing with ESPN or him?
He’s simply taking that at face value and offering how it would predict a season W/L number.
Are you arguing with ESPN or him?
Posted on 7/21/26 at 9:13 am to Tiger fan999
11-1 would be amazing, I am just hoping for 10-2 to be honest.
Clemson: Tough but should be the better team (1-0)
LA Tech: (2-0)
Ole Miss & Texas A&M: Being realistic, I am happy if we split these. If we walk out of these at 4-0, this team is legit. On the flipside, if you are 2-2, you are in major trouble. I have them splitting. (3-1)
McNeese St: (4-1)
Kentucky: No more Stoops ground and pound. I am actually going to be attending this game so I would love to see a big win. (5-1)
Mississippi St: Think they should be better but LSU has more talent. (6-1)
Auburn: I suspect this to be a trap game on the road after a light month, new faces in Auburn are going to be hungry for a win but I think LSU wins a close one. (7-1)
Alabama: This is the one I am so split on, I think that it fully comes down to which new QB has a better year. I am going to be optimistic on this and say LSU because of the experience but if Russell ends up being amazing at Bama. It would be an easy flip. (8-1)
Texas: I don't like our chances here. Will be an awesome game hopefully but coming off of Bama and how many guys Texas returns at key spots makes them the logical pick. (8-2)
Tennessee: This one comes down to QB again and I lean LSU after they couldn't get Aguilar another year. They need Lawyers and Judges like Ole Miss. (9-2)
Arkansas: Have to handle business and close out the season to make the playoffs. (10-2)
Going to be a tall ask of this team but I think it's doable.
Clemson: Tough but should be the better team (1-0)
LA Tech: (2-0)
Ole Miss & Texas A&M: Being realistic, I am happy if we split these. If we walk out of these at 4-0, this team is legit. On the flipside, if you are 2-2, you are in major trouble. I have them splitting. (3-1)
McNeese St: (4-1)
Kentucky: No more Stoops ground and pound. I am actually going to be attending this game so I would love to see a big win. (5-1)
Mississippi St: Think they should be better but LSU has more talent. (6-1)
Auburn: I suspect this to be a trap game on the road after a light month, new faces in Auburn are going to be hungry for a win but I think LSU wins a close one. (7-1)
Alabama: This is the one I am so split on, I think that it fully comes down to which new QB has a better year. I am going to be optimistic on this and say LSU because of the experience but if Russell ends up being amazing at Bama. It would be an easy flip. (8-1)
Texas: I don't like our chances here. Will be an awesome game hopefully but coming off of Bama and how many guys Texas returns at key spots makes them the logical pick. (8-2)
Tennessee: This one comes down to QB again and I lean LSU after they couldn't get Aguilar another year. They need Lawyers and Judges like Ole Miss. (9-2)
Arkansas: Have to handle business and close out the season to make the playoffs. (10-2)
Going to be a tall ask of this team but I think it's doable.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 9:17 am to Tiger fan999
Texas is not winning in Red Stick.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 9:23 am to BornAndRaised_LA
The people arguing against the math when the thread is literally about math are embarrassing themselves. ~8.5-3.5 is what the math says. We can look at that schedule and assume Arkansas is a win, which it almost certainly is, but it only counts for 0.84 using these numbers.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 10:44 am to sp22
Agreed. The counting of every ~56% chance as a 100% win is also flawed.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 3:30 pm to Tiger fan999
Lots of angry posters in this thread don’t understand math.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 3:33 pm to BPTiger
Math is racist against Cajuns
Posted on 7/21/26 at 4:59 pm to Tiger fan999
Just saying they would be favored in 11 of 12 games at beginning of season. With this schedule no way in hell do they go 11-1.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 5:16 pm to Tiger fan999
@Auburn is seemingly always a problem. No matter how bad their teams are through the years, assholes are always puckered throughout the game.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 7:22 pm to Tiger fan999
Evidently, ESPN has no idea about LSU's November schedule. Who believes this crap? 1-3 out the gate. Calling it now. New players, new staff, new plays, not enough practice time.
Posted on 7/21/26 at 7:37 pm to Tiger fan999
If we lose a few games.....keep moving forward!
Posted on 7/21/26 at 8:27 pm to Tiger fan999
Need some vitamin K after seeing that.
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