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LSU predicted to be 11-1 using ESPN percentage analytics
Posted on 7/20/26 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 7/20/26 at 1:44 pm
ESPN uses a matchup predictor to give a prediction on who they think will win each game. It gives out a percentage based off who they think will win.
LSU VS:
Clemson: 75.3%
LA Tech: 98%
Ole Miss: 55.9%
Texas A&M: 56.6%
McNeese ST: 99%
Kentucky: 81.5%
Mississippi ST: 89%
Auburn: 67.3%
Alabama: 56.2%
Texas: 36%
Tennessee: 57.9%
Arkansas: 84%
I know these pre season predictions can be stupid, but pretty interesting how highly ESPN thinks of us.
LSU VS:
Clemson: 75.3%
LA Tech: 98%
Ole Miss: 55.9%
Texas A&M: 56.6%
McNeese ST: 99%
Kentucky: 81.5%
Mississippi ST: 89%
Auburn: 67.3%
Alabama: 56.2%
Texas: 36%
Tennessee: 57.9%
Arkansas: 84%
I know these pre season predictions can be stupid, but pretty interesting how highly ESPN thinks of us.
23
Posted on 7/20/26 at 1:46 pm to Tiger fan999
IS Clemson really that bad?
Posted on 7/20/26 at 1:51 pm to Tiger fan999
That's not how that works.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 1:56 pm to Tiger fan999
Ya, about that math...they're giving LSU a 0.316394 probability of going 2-0 vs Ole Miss and A&M, for instance
Add up the probabilities to get the real prediction, which is 8.567-3.433
Add up the probabilities to get the real prediction, which is 8.567-3.433
This post was edited on 7/20/26 at 1:58 pm
Posted on 7/20/26 at 1:59 pm to Keith13
quote:
IS Clemson really that bad?
Clemson lost several key players from last year's not so great team, and they didn't do a ton in the transfer portal to seemingly fill the void. Clemson has one of the lowest returning production rates in the country...and that includes transfer's production at their previous school.
It's certainly possible they could be very good. But at this point there isn't a lot of hard data to suggest that is the case.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 2:02 pm to Tiger fan999
Man I can't wait for the season to get here already.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 2:05 pm to Keith13
I don’t think so. Just so many unknowns. They have talent.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 2:08 pm to SECCaptain
quote:
..they're giving LSU a 0.316394 probability of going 2-0 vs Ole Miss and A&M, for instance
Add up the probabilities to get the real prediction, which is 8.567-3.433
Can you show your work? I'm very lost when you put it like that
This post was edited on 7/21/26 at 8:59 am
Posted on 7/20/26 at 2:11 pm to JayVegas702
Think of it like equity, 98% chance to beat LA Tech = 0.98 wins
Posted on 7/20/26 at 2:13 pm to SECCaptain
quote:
Think of it like equity, 98% chance to beat LA Tech = 0.98 wins
Thanks, I can wrap my head around that.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 2:46 pm to Keith13
LSU is favored by 12.5 points. The only reason it could be close would be growing pains from the offense but I don’t see that happening with Kiffin at the helm tbh.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 2:51 pm to SECCaptain
But alas, the probabilities shift upward with wins in the first two weeks. So in a certain sense, if you feel 100% confident (subjectively) in the result of the first two weeks you can upwardly adjust the probabilities accordingly. And so on.
This post was edited on 7/20/26 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 7/20/26 at 3:21 pm to Tiger fan999
quote:
Clemson: 75.3%
LA Tech: 98%
Ole Miss: 55.9%
Texas A&M: 56.6%
3-1. I think Aggies win after LSU wins an extremely emotional game the week before. It will be close though
McNeese ST: 99%
Kentucky: 81.5%
Mississippi ST: 89%
Auburn: 67.3%
4-0. I don't think any of these teams will be very good
Alabama: 56.2%
Texas: 36%
Tennessee: 57.9%
Arkansas: 84%
3-1. As much as i would love to think they can beat Alabama and Texas back to back, it just seems unlikely. Will drop one, probably Texas in a scenario similar to aggies in the first of the season.
Posted on 7/20/26 at 3:29 pm to Tiger fan999
This equates to roughly 8.5-3.5
Posted on 7/20/26 at 3:31 pm to LSUminati
Sure you don’t mean 95% confident, Yale? 
Posted on 7/20/26 at 4:01 pm to SECCaptain
Subjective was used intentionally. There are some things math and statistics don't account for
Posted on 7/20/26 at 4:12 pm to Tiger fan999
Even if we are favored percentage wise to win games, that also doesn’t account the realistic chances we also lose some we should win and vice versa, and plain luck.
10-2 would be a great regular season if we pulled that off
10-2 would be a great regular season if we pulled that off
Posted on 7/20/26 at 4:35 pm to SECCaptain
You're bad at this..
Posted on 7/20/26 at 4:42 pm to Itsnotme
Oh really. So if a team has a 51% chance of winning their game each week, you’d say they’re projected to go 12-0?
Because the actual odds of that 12-0 are less than 1 in 3,200
Because the actual odds of that 12-0 are less than 1 in 3,200
This post was edited on 7/20/26 at 4:47 pm
Posted on 7/20/26 at 4:45 pm to Tiger fan999
Usually we follow those predictions to a certain degree. But we end up blowing a game against a team we should beat and stealing one away from a team. Watch for the Texas upset and a stupid loss or 2.
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