re: LSU 57 @ Syracuse 80 Final - ESPN2

Correct. Judging Syracuse off a game against Chaminade is like judging LSU against Miss Valley St, but slightly worse

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Although early, it does show up in RPI with Cuse 73 but LSU 176, with both teams being 4-2. However, the advanced stat sites like LSU better, but not by much.

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LSU losing to Nicholls is going to be a massive NET/RPI anchor the entire season.

Well that and their bad record.

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LSU losing to Nicholls is going to be a massive NET/RPI anchor the entire season.

Well that and their bad record.

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Looking at the remainder of LSU's non-conf schedule, this is almost a must-win, or they will need to beat K State and Texas. The remainder of their games are against truly horrible RPI teams. Lose this game and get swept by K State & Texas, and the RPI probably won't recover this season, even to NIT standards.

It's crazy how far Syracuse has fallen.

Just wait. The fall isn't over by any stretch.

They're hired a "cluse man", and are paying him $50/hr to coach the team.

They also run a $40 million/year deficit against a school like LSU in regards to TV money.

They'll be Georgetown in the next 5 years.

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Against all odds our defense actually has been okay this season, the large eye sore? Opponent 3 point percentage, we are giving up 35% from the 3 point line.

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What's worse is LSU is 2nd to worst in the NATION in % of opponent's points from 3. That is a big reason why opponents have stayed close and won in games where LSU had a significant FG% advantage.

It appears very clear that McMahon's defensive strategy is to allow opponents freedom to shoot as may threes as they like. How is it clear? Because LSU is 349 of 362 in opponent's 3 point attempts per game (28). That defensive approach seems to fly in the face of modern analytics where teams are happy to trade a lower shooting % for a higher volume of threes rather than have a higher shooting % with a lower volume of threes. The reason for that approach is so simple a kindergartener could understand it. 3 points is more than 2 points. That how LSU can shoot a combined average of 52% (overall) vs. combined 35% by Dayton and N. Texas and leave those games 1-1 with only a +1 point differential. The only way you don't win games going away with those margins is if you (a) let the opponent get a high VOLUME of threes and (2) allow your opponent to attempt significantly more shots than you (because of turnovers/poor defensive rebounding)

While LSU hasn't been overly efficient offensively (to date), they aren't shooting the ball poorly. 47%...ranked 58th of 362. LSU hasn't been great at holding on to the ball. Turning it over on 18% of their possessions (ranked 225/362). But they have completely mitigated that by being great at forcing the opponent to turn the ball over. Opponents are turning the ball over vs. LSU on 23% of their possessions. That's good enough to rank LSU at 17th in the nation in that stat. Where LSU is getting killed more than anywhere else is they are allowing opponents to make (on average) 10 three pointers a game 345th out of 362

Like you said, Syracuse has not been a good 3 point shooting team this year. So, presumably, this matchup could favor LSU. I'm ok with LSU allowing Syracuse to prove they can hit from deep early on. But if they start out hot from deep, McMahon MUST be willing to quickly adjust to get SU off the three point line.

Just like vs. Wake Forest, these are the three stats I will be watching

1. Opponent's made 3 pointers.

If LSU can keep SU in the 6-9 range of made 3 pointers I think LSU could have a shot. 10+, then LSU will have to shoot a season high from 3 to match.

2. Turnovers

Can LSU limit their turnovers to 10 or less while forcing 13 or more? Forcing turnovers has been LSU's biggest advantage to date. I would love to see LSU in the +6-7 range tonight.

3. FG attempts

LSU is 297th in the country in total FG attempts (56). They are 310th in opponent FG attempt allowed (63). More FG attempts = more opportunities for made baskets. Less FG attempts means a lower margin for error of missed baskets.

Syracuse is averaging 65 FGA per game (24th in the nation). That's nearly 10 more than what LSU is averaging. Can LSU close that margin? If the FGA discrepancy is +4-5 Syracuse, I think LSU could be ok. If it is +10-15, I don't care what FG% LSU shoots, Syracuse is likely going to win.

I'm excited for this game. A must win for us.

Judah Mintz is a baller. We're gonna need to lock him down.

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Looking at the remainder of LSU's non-conf schedule, this is almost a must-win, or they will need to beat K State and Texas. The remainder of their games are against truly horrible RPI teams. Lose this game and get swept by K State & Texas, and the RPI probably won't recover this season, even to NIT standards.

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If the only thing holding us back from postseason is our OOC schedule, but we were competitive in the SEC, I would take that tradeoff at this point in the rebuilding process.

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What's worse is LSU is 2nd to worst in the NATION in % of opponent's points from 3. That is a big reason why opponents have stayed close and won in games where LSU had a significant FG% advantage.

It appears very clear that McMahon's defensive strategy is to allow opponents freedom to shoot as may threes as they like. How is it clear? Because LSU is 349 of 362 in opponent's 3 point attempts per game (28). That defensive approach seems to fly in the face of modern analytics where teams are happy to trade a lower shooting % for a higher volume of threes rather than have a higher shooting % with a lower volume of threes.

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It could just mean that we have had a decided height advantage inside and have had relatively short guards, going large stretches with 2 6'1" guards. If we use more Williams and Mwani / Wright at guard that may improve, although I think many of our players aren't particularly skilled at perimeter defense.

I don't think McMahon's "plan" is to give up as many 3's as possible.

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I don't think McMahon's "plan" is to give up as many 3's as possible.

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I didn't say "made" 3 pointers. 3 point attempts.

It's basketball. Opponents are going to get shots. Several of them in fact. Generally, the defensive plan is working to force your opponent to take the shots YOU want them to take, attempted by the guys YOU want to take them.

It's more difficult to make a deep shot than a lay up. That's why they count for more. Thus, it's not a bad strategy to give up looks from 3 by poor 3 point shooters. But that strategy isn't without limitations. If you are getting beat from 3 you have to do what is necessary to take away those looks...even if it means you're giving up good looks from 2. Opponents aren't "shooting over" LSU's short guards. They are taking the shots LSU is giving them. And LSU is giving them 3's

From what I have seen thus far LSU's defensive strategy has been to help and dig to try to force deflections/steals. To a degree it is working. They are forcing a lot of turnovers. But they are also choosing to help off of shooters to try to force those turnovers. It's great when it works. But when it doesn't, you leave a guy with a wide-open look. (Coincidentally, it's a strategy Wade employed when he was here. Often with little success). LSU has been willing to give those looks to increase their chances for a steal. But sometimes you MUST be aware of who you are helping off of. SF who shoots 28% from deep on 2 attempts per game? Help off of him all day. It he beats the odds and makes a three you live with it. The opponent's better 3 point shooters? Don't help off of them. The increased chance for a steal probably isn't work the risk of a made three in that scenario. The discipline to know who to leave and who not to leave takes coaching and scouting. Right now, it appears LSU is willing to allow anyone and everyone to take good looks from three.

It's also contributing to the defensive rebounding woes. Long misses often = long rebounds. Long rebounds often favor the shooting team. Offensive rebounds for the opponents =more FGA for the opponent and less for you. More FGA often leads to more made baskets. It all works together. I'm ok right now with LSU getting a few less steals per game if it means you are forcing the "right" guys, from an defensive perspective, to take the "right" shots. That's been a problem thus far. LSU is letting too many good shooters get too many good looks from 3.