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Message
re: Basketball over reaction Thursday
Posted on 12/29/22 at 10:39 am to Pnels08
Posted on 12/29/22 at 10:39 am to Pnels08
quote:
Now will 9-9 with a KP of 75 surely get us in? Idk but as of right now I think it would get us in. Especially if we can add an few wins against the rest of the top 7 in the conference(Avoiding a bad loss to the bottom 3 teams)
The committee doesn't really care about conference record or conference finish necessarily. They care more about who you beat and where you beat them. So not all 9-9 records would be viewed equally.
Both LSU and Texas A&M were 9-9 in the SEC last year. LSU got a 6 seed. A&M didn't make the tournament. Why? Because of A&M's 9 SEC (regular season) wins, only 2 were good wins: Arkansas (home) and Alabama (away). LSU had 4 good wins: Kentucky (home), Tennessee (home), Florida (away), Alabama (home).
However, that was also combined with the fact LSU had a good NET rating (despite having the weakest non-conf. schedule in the Wade era) AND a solid rating in the predictive metrics (mainly KenPom).
Last night was a GREAT start in stacking really good wins. LSU is going to need them because their predictive metric ratings (KenPom and the like) are not very good at all. LSU had such an elite defensive rating last year that it kept them ranked in the KenPom top 30 much of season despite a relatively bad offensive rating. Unfortunately, this team is currently very mediocre on offense and defense in the KenPom metrics. They aren't "elite" at anything. So they will need to start/keep stacking wins.
If we get to the end of the season and LSU is 9-9, but with multiple wins over teams like Arkansas, Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas Tech, (now) Missouri, with some of those coming on the road, that 9-9 resume doesn't look bad. But, if Arkansas is the only NCAAT team LSU beats as part of a 9-9 record, that 9-9 is much worse.
Don't really look at numbers (in terms of wins). Look at teams. LSU got a big one last night. They have a huge opportunity for another next Tuesday. Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, Texas Tech all come to the PMAC. Those are going to be the games that can tremendously bolster a resume.
1
Posted on 12/29/22 at 10:43 am to thunderbird1100
I definitely get what you are saying and of course this is all anecdotal to how the committee sees it.
But this is very true, our rpi is around 50 maybe even better but because the net includes eff we take an arse whoopin there.
How many tournament teams did we beat last year (I know our advance stats were way way better) but wasn't it also a low number?
quote:
but how poorly overall we did against it from an advanced stats point of view.
But this is very true, our rpi is around 50 maybe even better but because the net includes eff we take an arse whoopin there.
quote:
Say we go 6-2 against the "meh" teams and 3-7 against the tournament level teams...is that good enough? I kind of doubt it.
How many tournament teams did we beat last year (I know our advance stats were way way better) but wasn't it also a low number?
Posted on 12/29/22 at 10:50 am to Alt26
I think 9 and 9 would be awesome! However, I don’t think it would get us in. See USC 2015-2016. That schedule was just really bad and maybe for good reason. I mean we’re definitely confident. Super pumped about the win!
Posted on 12/29/22 at 10:58 am to MT555
9-9 gets LSU 20 wins. I know non conference was weak, but 7 other SEC teams did not play 1 ranked team in non conference play either. Wake Forest win will likely be a helpful win also
Posted on 12/29/22 at 10:59 am to Choupique19
Final 4,baby! 
Posted on 12/29/22 at 11:02 am to Pnels08
quote:
How many tournament teams did we beat last year (I know our advance stats were way way better) but wasn't it also a low number?
Not sure about total tournament teams but our NET was 20 so that is a tournament lock basically. We had 5 Quad 1 wins and 4 Quad 2 wins. Possible we had some Quad 3 wins make the tournament as well.
But we also played a much better OOC that year and played way way better against it. Against the 4 Quad 4 OCC games we had on it we beat those teams by 35, 39, 40 and 62
Compare that to playing 9 Quad 4 OOC games this year and beating 1 of them by more than 16 points. 5 of them were single digit wins.
This post was edited on 12/29/22 at 11:03 am
Posted on 12/29/22 at 11:02 am to thunderbird1100
I think we are a tourney team. There is some talent on this team. Just need some of the freshman to pick it up and Miller to get it going.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 11:07 am to Choupique19
Pigs, Moo, Alabama, Auburn, Cats, Vols, Mizzou will be hard to finish in front of….. and more than 7 from the league?? Nah.
Can we finish ahead of one of the aforementioned? Possible. Consistency will win it.
Can we finish ahead of one of the aforementioned? Possible. Consistency will win it.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 11:14 am to Choupique19
Yesterday was a big step to prove Ken Pom wrong… big confidence boost for the team, too.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 11:20 am to MT555
quote:
See USC 2015-2016.
The SEC was bad that year. Only three teams made the NCAA Tournament. So South Carolina really didn't have much in the conf. schedule to help out a bad non-conf. schedule. It's only just started, but I willing to say the SEC this year is MUCH better than it was in 2016.
There is no single metric or record that clearly makes a NCAA Tournament team. Iowa State and TCU both had losing records in Big 12 play last season. TCU had a non-conf. schedule in 200's. They both made the tournament because even with losing conf records they still had multiple great wins on their resumes. On the flip side Wake Forest was 13-7 in the ACC. But they didn't make the tournament because even though they had 13 conference wins, not many were very "good" wins because the ACC was weak.
In the order of importance, these two things matter more than everything else:
1. How many other NCAA Tournament teams did you beat?
2. How many games did you win away from home?
Posted on 12/29/22 at 11:22 am to Alt26
quote:
1. How many other NCAA Tournament teams did you beat? 2. How many games did you win away from home?
This is really what it all boils down to
Posted on 12/29/22 at 11:26 am to UnluckyTiger
quote:
Miller to get it going.
This is the most worrisome thing to me. Dude is supposed to be star of the team and he certainly started out that way but has been almost completely MIA the last 5 games or so.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 12:57 pm to Sterling Archer
Per KenPom:
Total strength of schedule: 323rd out of 363 teams (Arkansas helped lower this as will their next seven opponents).
Strength of out of conference schedule: 344th of 363.
Total strength of schedule: 323rd out of 363 teams (Arkansas helped lower this as will their next seven opponents).
Strength of out of conference schedule: 344th of 363.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 1:05 pm to Shaq4prez
quote:
I'm a hoops optimist.
Me too. It’s the Dale Brown effect.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 1:07 pm to Choupique19
9 wins would be a solid year one.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 1:28 pm to LSU Patrick
quote:This guy understands how to overreaction thread properly. Some of you should take note.
by LSU Patrick
Posted on 12/29/22 at 1:33 pm to PinstripesForever
quote:
9-9 would get our Net and KP up a good bit imo, last year Rutgers went 18-14 with the 354th(5th highest) OOC schedule finishing around 75th on KP and got a play in game.
Indiana got a 12 with the 319 OOC scheddy and USC got a 7 with a 290,
Now will 9-9 with a KP of 75 surely get us in? Idk but as of right now I think it would get us in. Especially if we can add an few wins against the rest of the top 7 in the conference(Avoiding a bad loss to the bottom 3 teams)
quote:
Per KenPom:
Total strength of schedule: 323rd out of 363 teams (Arkansas helped lower this as will their next seven opponents).
Strength of out of conference schedule: 344th of 363.
Posted on 12/29/22 at 2:36 pm to Choupique19
9-10... 1 down
Posted on 12/29/22 at 3:31 pm to thunderbird1100
He needs to drive the ball, he’s getting defenders on his hip then stopping and popping with jumpers. It’s mental, good scorers always get to the FT line and you can’t do that forcing jumpers every time.
This post was edited on 12/29/22 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 12/29/22 at 4:15 pm to UnluckyTiger
quote:
There is some talent on this team. Just need some of the freshman to pick it up and Miller to get it going.
I agree. Ward and Reid have not given us what we or for that matter the coaching staff had hoped to this point. And CMM said before the season Miller missed a whole year and it will take him some time. His fast start was a bit of fools gold in that regard, but ultimately I think CMM was right.
But I think he believes Miller will come around and despite his struggles of late, I do too.
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