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re: AP Poll / SEC Bias - Dogs LSU
Posted on 10/16/25 at 9:19 am to PerplenGold
Posted on 10/16/25 at 9:19 am to PerplenGold
Bill Connolly and his ridiculous SP+ can get bent. All you need to know about that metric was that LSU was still ranked No. 2 in his idiotic system after it won the national championship in 2019. And he can hide behind “it’s supposed to be predictive” all he wants, but his predictive system had LSU No. 3 behind Clemson before LSU beat the shite out of Clemson in the title game.
Like ESPN’s other made-up metrics, QBR and FPI, SP+ is a good when you need a good laugh or fiction read while sitting on the toilet.
Like ESPN’s other made-up metrics, QBR and FPI, SP+ is a good when you need a good laugh or fiction read while sitting on the toilet.
This post was edited on 10/16/25 at 9:20 am
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Posted on 10/16/25 at 9:25 am to PerplenGold
why do people get worked up about silly media polls? They're irrelevant in today's game, and have been a joke for decades.
The only ranking that matters is the final Playoff Selection Committee's rankings.
The rest is noise - ignore it all.
The only ranking that matters is the final Playoff Selection Committee's rankings.
The rest is noise - ignore it all.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 10:58 am to PerplenGold
quote:
With an expanded playoff, this matters more than ever. And it's in the hands of people who aren't even paying attention.
bullshite. It's in the hands of the CFP selection committee. And one reason they wait until mid season to put out the CFP poll is to avoid pre-season bias.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 11:24 am to PerplenGold
Only a fool would believe Big Ten schedules even come close to SEC schedules.
There,hasn't been one SEC team beat by 4 TDs by another SEC team this year. As a matter of fact, only Vandy has beat an SEC team by more than 22 points this year (24) and they did it vs the backup QB for South Carolina (who is basically a break glass in case of emergency QB).
However, if you go to the Big Ten:
Illinois lost by 53 to Indiana
Minnesota lost by 39 to Ohio St
Wisconsin lost by 37 to Iowa
Michigan St lost by 25 to UCLA
There,hasn't been one SEC team beat by 4 TDs by another SEC team this year. As a matter of fact, only Vandy has beat an SEC team by more than 22 points this year (24) and they did it vs the backup QB for South Carolina (who is basically a break glass in case of emergency QB).
However, if you go to the Big Ten:
Illinois lost by 53 to Indiana
Minnesota lost by 39 to Ohio St
Wisconsin lost by 37 to Iowa
Michigan St lost by 25 to UCLA
Posted on 10/16/25 at 11:30 am to SludgeFactory
quote:We didn't get manhandled by a single got damn team. People keep talking about If Ole Miss didn't have penalties. What if LSU didn't have turnovers? Ole Miss won at home by 5. Ole Miss is at worst, a 3 loss team.
As a fan, I would be fine if LSU wasn't in the top 20. Reality is, as of now, we are more 22-25. We got manhandled by an OM team that is gong to lose 3, maybe four games. We do not currently have a big win
Many of you overrate other teams and beat down LSU. Vandy lost by 16 to the only good team they played. Bama held them to 14. Like i said, they'd be lucky to get 17 on LSU. LSU has scored at least 19 on everybody (all top 40 defenses). Now with the team heating up offensively, LSU should go off.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 11:33 am to PerplenGold
The premise of the article is fine, the evidence to support it is dumb.
Is his proposal that Penn State is beating Alabama based on the rankings he is using, because anyone who watched either of those teams play can see that Bama would easily be -13.5 or more against them even with Franklin.
Texas at 17 is wild. They beat OU with a beat up QB sure, but lost to the same bad UF team he drags LSU for beating, and Texas's 3 wins besides OU are a combined 4-16 (one of those wins was UTEP over Sam Houston last night, two teams UT has played). UT at 17 is exactly the sort of basis he is claiming the AP poll has.
Memphis at 18 with only 1 P4 win, which was against a bad Arky team that required Arky to fumble the game away, again makes no sense. They sure do score a lot, but they aren't playing any real competition.
I love computer models, especially this season since they are very kind to the two teams I root for (ND and SLU) but they have flaws. A lot more goes into the game of football than just what the raw data tells you.
Is his proposal that Penn State is beating Alabama based on the rankings he is using, because anyone who watched either of those teams play can see that Bama would easily be -13.5 or more against them even with Franklin.
Texas at 17 is wild. They beat OU with a beat up QB sure, but lost to the same bad UF team he drags LSU for beating, and Texas's 3 wins besides OU are a combined 4-16 (one of those wins was UTEP over Sam Houston last night, two teams UT has played). UT at 17 is exactly the sort of basis he is claiming the AP poll has.
Memphis at 18 with only 1 P4 win, which was against a bad Arky team that required Arky to fumble the game away, again makes no sense. They sure do score a lot, but they aren't playing any real competition.
I love computer models, especially this season since they are very kind to the two teams I root for (ND and SLU) but they have flaws. A lot more goes into the game of football than just what the raw data tells you.
This post was edited on 10/16/25 at 11:36 am
Posted on 10/16/25 at 11:39 am to PerplenGold
I am not at all sure why he chose LSU as his whipping boy in this analysis. If he has an argument, it’s that USC is underrated, not that LSU is overrated. LSU is #11 in the composite computer rankings (not just FPI or SP+), while USC is #12. It’s all the teams ranked between LSU and USC that are the issue, not LSU.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 11:43 am to PerplenGold
SP+ is supposedly a predictive system that values performance over wins/losses. In other words, it values running up the score on bad opponents, which is a horrible way to predict future outcomes.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 11:47 am to TDsngumbo
quote:quote:Some?! Nearly all of the opinions here are stupid, including most of mine!
Be highly skeptical of some of the opinions sated in the rant!
You and I share one thing in common, for sure. We are both highly skeptical of our own opinions.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 11:49 am to tygerphan
Prior to last year, Indiana was viewed in a similar fashion. We may be witnessing one of Vandy’s special seasons
Posted on 10/16/25 at 12:11 pm to SludgeFactory
quote:
We do not currently have a big win.
Who has big wins? Clemson is going to end up 9-3. Florida and USCe and Oklahoma have the hardest schedules in America. They’re gonna win some games but lose more. Them being 6-6/7-5 would lead to 9-3/10-2 in the big ten
quote:
bottom tier QB
I cannot believe how absolutely braindead people have become around the LSU fanbase. He made ONE BAD THROW LAST WEEK. Prior to that he was hurt!!! Healthy Nuss is a top 5 QB all day and all night. The same people who think Nuss sucks think Pavia is awesome or Mateer is awesome.
Nuss definitely did something to you or your boyfriend. Nuss had 1 throw where he got smoked by the OL and the ball sailed, a dropped 50 yarder, 1 bad throw. Just stfu. No throws into triple coverage. He scrambled when we needed him to. LSU put up 420 yards of offense. Did no one watch South Carolina game? Are you just ignoring the fact Nuss looked like a different person than against Ole Miss?
Posted on 10/16/25 at 12:22 pm to OJsLifeCoach
quote:
We won the game right? And yet their shitty record is somehow being held against us like we didn’t get it done
We won when the stakes were highest for them, at their house, and should have won by multiple scores. It’s fricking maddening the way this game is being used against us. Bama LOST to a shite FSU team and it isn’t even brought up as much.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 12:35 pm to SludgeFactory
quote:That is absolutely not "the reality"
Reality is, as of now, we are more 22-25.
quote:We lost by one score on the road.
We got manhandled by an OM team
quote:Like 3 teams in America do.
We do not currently have a big win.
quote:If we beat a top 10 and top 20 team, put us at 15?
Now, we beat Vandy and aTm, then yes, put us in the top 15.
Shut up.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 12:42 pm to PerplenGold
To make his point he had to rank 6 and 0 Ole Miss very Low.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 12:51 pm to PerplenGold
It’s Bill Connelly, he can’t stand BK or the SEC
Posted on 10/16/25 at 1:30 pm to PerplenGold
quote:
But the talking points are out; the SEC has the hardest remaining schedule because of AP-ranked teams. Except, once again, looking at data-driven rankings, the remaining strength of schedule is remarkably similar between conferences.
Six of the 11 hardest remaining schedules are in the Big Ten, per ESPN's FPI metric. The other five are in the SEC. Nine of the top 18 toughest remaining schedules are in the Big Ten. 10 of the top 18 are in the SEC. It's very evenly matched. Yet it won't be presented that way, because of biased human voters that don't watch the games.
Interesting how he suddenly switched from talking about SP+ to FPI. I wonder why that might be.. *checks SP+*
SP+ SOS rankings (SEC teams in bold):
1. Florida
2. Arkansas
3. Illinois
4. Alabama
5. Auburn
7. Kentucky
8. South Carolina
9. Purdue
10. Michigan
11. Texas A&M
13. Wisconsin
14. Texas
15. Georgia
20. Indiana
23. Ohio State
24. LSU
26. Oklahoma
28. Mississippi State
29. Oregon
31. Washington
32. Northwestern
35. UCLA
36. Iowa
39. Michigan State
42. Tennessee
44. Nebraska
47. Ole Miss
48. Minnesota
51. Maryland
54. Rutgers
55. Missouri
60. USC
62. Penn State
73. Vanderbilt
Average SP+ SOS ranking:
SEC - 22.625
B1G - 33.278
Also funny that the USC team he hyped for half the article has the second-lowest SOS of any team in either conference.
Another irony.. a B1G guy bitching about rankings / strength of schedule a year after Indiana got into the CFP without beating a single ranked team all year.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 1:56 pm to PerplenGold
The SEC bias is actually appropriate. From a talent standpoint they are the most talented conference according to the NFL draft and it isn't close.
Posted on 10/16/25 at 1:57 pm to PerplenGold
quote:
Nine of the top 18 toughest remaining schedules are in the Big Ten. 10 of the top 18 are in the SEC
Baw needs to check his math here.
quote:
ith an expanded playoff, this matters more than ever. And it's in the hands of people who aren't even paying attention.
Was a solid rant, too bad he doesn't realize that the people that vote in the AP do not determine the playoff teams
Posted on 10/16/25 at 1:58 pm to PerplenGold
ND gets all kind of love but our loss is to the 4th ranked team in the country at their field. it's not like we have lost to anyone else. I am frustrated with how we have looked but winning by 2 scores is still good right?
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