3-way tie breaker update

I thought you hated football.

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We beat Bama/win out & UGA beats Ole Miss. That’s the path.

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Both are the most likely scenarios

Ole Miss will lose to Georgia and aTm.

That will be the game that saves Jimbo for one more year.

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If we win out and OM wins out, they deserve to go. That means they were first team to beat UGA since 2020

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Why? They would have lost to Bama, but we'd have beaten Bama at Bama. Maybe Ole Miss wins the eyeball test, but that's not what decides the West representative.

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the 3-way tie breaker among LSU, Alabam and Ole Miss,

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Ole Miss going to Athens on Nov 11... What 3 way tiebreak are we looking at?

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If we win out and OM wins out, they deserve to go. That means they were first team to beat UGA since 2020

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What kind of jacked up logic is this? You could also so among the three teams tied at 7-1, we were the only one with a road victory among the trio, if you’re choosing random, anecdotal-type reasons why a team should go.

ALSO, they will not have beaten the 2021 nor 2022 Georgia teams that were actual national champions. What if Missouri beats Georgia and winds up representing the East - an event that could happen independent of Ole Miss’s win over UGa. In that case, we would have the only win over the SEC East champ, so we should go.

Play by the rules.

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Ole Miss (Vandy and UGa) Currently 4-4, projected 8-8 Georgia wins out, Vandy loses out

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How can UGA win out if Ole Miss has to beat them to get to 7-1?

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So we need either Bama AND Ole Miss to lose one (besides Bama to us) or Ole Miss to lose one or be content that Vandy will lose all their games and maybe hope for Mizzou to steal one from Tenn or UGa.

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I’m not really understanding your line of thought here.

If we win out and Ole Miss drops another game, the division is ours regardless of whether Bama drops another game because we would have the H2H tiebreaker over Bama.

Also you’re projecting Ole Miss’ east opponents at 8-8 based on UGA going 8-0 and Vandy going 0-8. If that happens, it’s a non-issue for us because it means UGA beat Ole Miss. If UGA loses to Ole Miss (meaning Ole Miss finishes 7-1) then that means their east opponents are 7-9 instead of 8-8.

In the event that Ole Miss, LSU, and Bama all finish 7-1, here is how I see the tiebreaker playing out:

Ole Miss’ opponents are probably the easiest to forecast since even if UGA loses to Ole Miss, they aren’t particularly likely to lose another game. Meanwhile Vandy isn’t likely to win another game. They might have a shot against Auburn. I’d say OM opponents are likely to finish between 6-10 and 8-8. Key games are Vandy vs. Auburn, UGA vs. Mizzou, and UGA vs. Tennessee. Note that 8-8 would assume UGA wins every other game AND Vandy beats Auburn. Vandy would have to win multiple games for it to be better than 8-8.

For LSU’s opponents, Florida and Mizzou still have to play each other so that’s a wash regardless. UF isn’t likely to beat UGA, but they should handle Arky. Mizzou probably doesn’t beat UGA so the Tennessee game is the wildcard remaining in their schedule. Our opponents should finish between 9-7 and 10-6. Key games are Mizzou vs. Tennessee and Mizzou vs. UGA.

Bama’s opponents still have to play each other as well so again that game is a wash. Kentucky should handle Ms State and USCe. Tennessee is the wildcard with games remaining against Mizzou and UGA. Bama’s opponents are likely to finish between 8-8 and 10-6. Key games are Tennessee vs. Mizzou and Tennessee vs. UGA.

I honestly don’t see a scenario where OM’s east opponents have a better record than LSU’s/Bama’s. So we want UGA to beat Tennessee and ideally (but unlikely) Mizzou to beat UGA. But the most important SECe game for LSU, with regards to the tiebreaker, is Tennessee @ Mizzou. If Mizzou beats Tennessee it would become very hard for Bama to beat LSU in the tiebreaker. And LSU would have the added advantage of H2H which means that if it gets reduced to a 2-way tie (because OM loses the 3-way tiebreaker to both LSU and Bama) then LSU would win.

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Ole Miss (Vandy and UGa) Currently 4-4, projected 8-8 Georgia wins out,

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Not possible in this scenario because OM plays UGA

My first time seeing a post that is easier to understand than its summary.