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Tiger Phil
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | I see burnt orange everywhere |
| Biography: | LSU fan since 1990, when I started school |
| Interests: | Young Life |
| Occupation: | HS Coach and Teacher |
| Number of Posts: | 1631 |
| Registered on: | 11/20/2007 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: Oklahoma is now 4-1 against Alabama all time; How does LSU turn the tide?
Posted by Tiger Phil on 11/25/24 at 4:21 pm
quote:
There’s one certainty in the universe and it’s that LSU is always going to get the best version of Bama.
We will never get the defense that took the field at Vandy, or the pick-six machine that played against OU.
This is the absolute truth. Although it should make me happy to see Alabama lose, a part of me is always pissed off that they played poorly against OU and Vandy. They NEVER fail to put it together for their game against LSU.
When was the last time Alabama beat themselves AGAINST LSU? 1993 (Pigs Fly)? Even auburn sometimes gets a crap performance from Alabama, but we never do
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re: Brian Kelly Press Conference (Florida Game).12pm CT. Tidbits Inside. Will we get answers?
Posted by Tiger Phil on 11/11/24 at 12:10 pm
quote:
We will get zero answers and he’ll march back to his millions unbothered.
Friends, one does not become a multimillionaire SEC head football coach by being complacent.
I can promise you that BK is more bothered by this loss than any one of us is.
re: Who goes to SEC CG if LSU/Texas finish 7-1?
Posted by Tiger Phil on 11/3/24 at 10:17 am
quote:
Wrong. See scenarios in this article 247
My brother. Please read the article you are linking. It says that LSU & Georgia go if they and Texas are tied at 7-1.
re: SEC Championship Scenarios
Posted by Tiger Phil on 11/3/24 at 10:14 am
quote:
You absolutely apply a head-to-head tie breaker. What are you talking about? Texas cannot go over Georgia if they lost to Georgia.
They could as follows.
Let’s say we have LSU, Texas and Georgia tied.
1) 1st tiebreaker is head to head among teams. Only Texas and Georgia have played, so that one is not applied.
2) 2nd tiebreaker is record against common Conference opponents. Other than games won, none of us will have lost to the same team. Texas to Georgia (lsu doesn’t play Ga) LSU to A&M (Georgia doesn’t play A&M) and Georgia to Alabama (Texas doesn’t play Bama). So this one is also not applied.
3) 3rd tiebreaker is conference opponent record. Here, LSU will have the best opponent win %. This ranks LSU 1st And now you apply H2H w Tex/Ga
If Texas had the best opponent win percentage, they would go in over Georgia.
re: SEC Championship Scenarios
Posted by Tiger Phil on 11/3/24 at 10:01 am
I’ve found this site to be handy. Enter all the game results and it calculates standings with all applicable tiebreakers.
LINK
LINK
re: SEC Championship Scenarios
Posted by Tiger Phil on 11/3/24 at 10:00 am
Dude the article you linked literally says that if Texas, Georgia and LSU won out, then it’s LSU vs Georgia.
re: SEC Championship Scenarios
Posted by Tiger Phil on 11/3/24 at 9:58 am
You don’t apply head to head with Georgia/Texas because LSU played neither of them.
re: SEC Championship Scenarios
Posted by Tiger Phil on 11/3/24 at 9:53 am
That’s not how tiebreakers work.
If Texas, Georgia and LSU end up tied at 7-1, then head to head and common opponents don’t resolve anything. It goes to conference opponent win percentage, and we would finish as the 1 seed.
You can’t say team a is above team b but don’t consider team c. The only way the tiebreaker works is if you can evaluate all teams in that tie breaker.
If Texas, Georgia and LSU end up tied at 7-1, then head to head and common opponents don’t resolve anything. It goes to conference opponent win percentage, and we would finish as the 1 seed.
You can’t say team a is above team b but don’t consider team c. The only way the tiebreaker works is if you can evaluate all teams in that tie breaker.
re: Not a BK fan but...............(opinion rant)
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/30/24 at 8:44 am
I absolutely hate the constant refrain of “Kelly can’t win the big games”.
Let’s examine:
2022 season “big games” 2-2
Lost to Tennessee and Georgia (SECCG)
Beat Ole Miss and Alabama (both top ten at the time)
Losing to FSU and Texas A&M don’t count as “big games”. We should have won each of those, so if we had won, you wouldn’t count it as a big game win.
Keep in mind that the reason we won the SEC West was because we won the two biggest games on the schedule in the SEC West.
2023 Season “big games” 0-3
Lost to Florida State, Ole Miss and Alabama
Moral victory, but we did drop a pass in the end zone that would have won it vs Ole Miss…
2024 season “big games” 1-1 so far
Beat Ole Miss
Lost to Texas A&M
So, by my reckoning, he is 3-6 in “big games” so far. The record is skewed because of the hideous defense in 2023.
It is hardly correct that he cannot win the big games. He does win them, and he will win another one a week and a half.
Let’s examine:
2022 season “big games” 2-2
Lost to Tennessee and Georgia (SECCG)
Beat Ole Miss and Alabama (both top ten at the time)
Losing to FSU and Texas A&M don’t count as “big games”. We should have won each of those, so if we had won, you wouldn’t count it as a big game win.
Keep in mind that the reason we won the SEC West was because we won the two biggest games on the schedule in the SEC West.
2023 Season “big games” 0-3
Lost to Florida State, Ole Miss and Alabama
Moral victory, but we did drop a pass in the end zone that would have won it vs Ole Miss…
2024 season “big games” 1-1 so far
Beat Ole Miss
Lost to Texas A&M
So, by my reckoning, he is 3-6 in “big games” so far. The record is skewed because of the hideous defense in 2023.
It is hardly correct that he cannot win the big games. He does win them, and he will win another one a week and a half.
re: Bye Week Thread: Predict the rest of the season
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/28/24 at 8:21 pm
4 wins. The toughest team we face is actually on a downswing and we get them at home at night. We win and we are favored in all the rest of the game and sweep our way to the SEC CG.
re: I know you’re upset, but this team can still make the playoff
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/28/24 at 8:20 am
quote:
As a Florida fan, we are actually much better with Lagway and its in the Swamp
Come talk to me on a couple of weeks after Georgia and Texas.
re: 5-4. That’s what LSU’s record ought to be.
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/28/24 at 7:13 am
What a miserable sot you must be.
But we can use your expert analysis in reverse as well. We should have not had to play Alabama again in 2011, so there’s another national championship we have. And we dominated the whole game vs them in 2012 so we win that one as well. Heck I bet Saban’s dynasty never takes hold and Miles wins 4 or 5 national championships. He’s the greatest modern day coach in college football!!
But we can use your expert analysis in reverse as well. We should have not had to play Alabama again in 2011, so there’s another national championship we have. And we dominated the whole game vs them in 2012 so we win that one as well. Heck I bet Saban’s dynasty never takes hold and Miles wins 4 or 5 national championships. He’s the greatest modern day coach in college football!!
re: A part of LSU's game under Kelly is always woefully deficient.
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/27/24 at 10:37 pm
quote:
Games that count? I don’t understand the gripe about this. BK specifically at LSU has won several big games. Yes, he isn’t undefeated in major big time games but he has several big wins here. Ole Miss ‘22 Alabama ‘22 Missouri ‘23 Ole Miss ‘24 Are ones that just pop up from the mind. I’m sure there are a few more pretty solid/big wins in there as well.
They will tell you that those aren’t the big ones. They’re only big ones if you lose them.
I was literally told that Alabama 22 wasn’t a big win, because that Alabama team didn’t even make it to Atlanta. And pray tell, WHY DIDN’T THEY MAKE IT TO ATLANTA CARL?
re: I know you’re upset, but this team can still make the playoff
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/27/24 at 10:23 pm
quote:
Yeah we won the west by default, but then we got fricking annihilated by a 4-7 Texas A&M team that lost to App State at home. The west division was absolute trash that year.
Friend, we won the west with 2 losses because we gave Alabama their 2nd loss. The East had Georgia and 2-loss Tennessee.
Sheesh.
I, too, would cherish a rematch with A&M in Atlanta.
re: I know you’re upset, but this team can still make the playoff
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/27/24 at 10:09 pm
quote:
That was Saban’s worst team in years and they didn’t even sniff the CFP. Doesn’t count.
What would have happened that year had we not defeated them?
re: I know you’re upset, but this team can still make the playoff
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/27/24 at 9:31 pm
Boys, just think of all the things that had to go wrong to give them the lead in the second half:
1) Hilton mistiming his catch
2) Normally super reliable Ramos missing 2 FGs and never getting to attempt a 3rd
3) due to the aforementioned, a failed 2-pt conversion.
These three added up to 13 lost points when we were ahead 17-14. Had we executed, we are up 30-14 at that point.
4) a failed 2-pt conversion, bringing the total lost points to 14. We lost by 15, you know.
5) 6) & 7) three interceptions by Nuss, and the botched FG give them a short field on 4 second-half possessions
8) one long pass completion gives them a short field on yet another second half possession.
YES, A&M took advantage and YES, we couldn’t run the ball and YES, we looked ridiculous vs Reed. But we did SO MUCH wrong - out of character for this team, honestly.
We will fix those and rebound
1) Hilton mistiming his catch
2) Normally super reliable Ramos missing 2 FGs and never getting to attempt a 3rd
3) due to the aforementioned, a failed 2-pt conversion.
These three added up to 13 lost points when we were ahead 17-14. Had we executed, we are up 30-14 at that point.
4) a failed 2-pt conversion, bringing the total lost points to 14. We lost by 15, you know.
5) 6) & 7) three interceptions by Nuss, and the botched FG give them a short field on 4 second-half possessions
8) one long pass completion gives them a short field on yet another second half possession.
YES, A&M took advantage and YES, we couldn’t run the ball and YES, we looked ridiculous vs Reed. But we did SO MUCH wrong - out of character for this team, honestly.
We will fix those and rebound
re: I know you’re upset, but this team can still make the playoff
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/27/24 at 2:01 pm
quote:
This team will have a hard time defending Milroe and Pavia. Very seriously looking at 4 losses.
OR, the coaches and players will realize correctable mistakes, play cleaner games and win the last 4 to go to the SEC CG.
re: I know you’re upset, but this team can still make the playoff
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/27/24 at 12:51 pm
quote:
know what I'm about, son. "Top of the bell curve" here means statistically most likely. #Accurate
My apologies then.
I would probably argue that 9-3 is the statistically most likely, but I believe that this team can triumph over than and finish the regular season on a 4-game win streak.
re: I know you’re upset, but this team can still make the playoff
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/27/24 at 12:47 pm
quote:
Dude, it would be a freakin' miracle if we conjure up 3 more wins. 2-2 the rest of the way, 8-4 going into the bowl game is the top of the bell curve here.
The “top of the bell curve” is 11-2 SEC Champions, #2 or #3 seed for the playoffs.
Even though that’s not what the top of the bell curve means.
Don’t let 20 minutes of the worst we can possibly play cloud your vision of this team.
re: I know you’re upset, but this team can still make the playoff
Posted by Tiger Phil on 10/27/24 at 12:35 pm
You mean like he didn’t beat Alabama in 2022?
Like he didn’t beat Ole Miss this year?
Oh got it. It’s only a big game if we lose.
Like he didn’t beat Ole Miss this year?
Oh got it. It’s only a big game if we lose.
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