re: Florida still holding at 18.09% with a lot of deep red panhandle still to come

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No, but Trump wasn't +18 either.

If these polling errors transfer to other state results it's a great sign.

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Well he isn't at +18, he's at +18 on election day votes only.

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Was Florida ever in play?

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No.

However, there is a thought the Florida ED turnout (since it's the only state that releases such detailed info on turnout in real time) COULD be predictive of nationwide ED turnout. The thought being that R +20 ED turnout in Florida may predict a big R turnout % nationwide. Anything around +15 could suggest a very close election. Anything below +10 would be bad news.

Currently the turnout is R +18. It has been steadily trending down from +21 throughout the day. That was not unexpected. Now it is 4:00 pm (EST) and people are probably going to be getting off of work. Will the after work vote start to kick that number back up?

Were you worried about Florida? Really?

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Were you worried about Florida? Really?

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Not at all. It is used as a metric to measure the rest of the nation.

You vote for Kamala yet?

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It has been steadily trending down from +21 throughout the day. That was not unexpected.

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Someone posted on here this morning that it was expected. It would decrease during the day but jump back up later in the evening.

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Explain the "panhandle still to come" part?

They're voting now just like the rest of the state. They'll be open an hour later though. So... these numbers include the current panhandle votes correct?

Just more to come later when the Dem counties are closed?

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If you presume there is going to be an uptick in ED votes after people get off of work that means that "uptick" will occur an hour later in the western panhandle because it's in the central time zone. That area is VERY "red"

I looked at the website and I think you need to click on "all votes" to get their projection.

It basically is saying that if Trump gets all the GOP registered voters and Harris gets all the Democrat registered voters and the others get apportioned based on their county's democrat/republican ratio, Trump would win by 10.8%.

According to 538, Trump led in the polls by Florida by an average of nearly 7 points. A 10-11% win is well within the reasonable expectation for Florida. I'm guessing it will end up right at the 7% mark, mainly due to the fact there is a small contingent of GOP registered voters who don't like Trump.

This is why Scott (GOP Senate candidate) runs a couple of points ahead of Trump in polling in Florida.

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Just more to come later when the Dem counties are closed?

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This is my impression. Basically when the bluer part of eastern FL has their polls close most of the “new” votes should skew heavily R.