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re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
Posted on 6/3/21 at 1:55 pm to Lsuismyfav
Posted on 6/3/21 at 1:55 pm to Lsuismyfav
quote:
How many teams 13th player gets meaningful minutes? WTH do you expect from the 13th player? Do you seriously believe that 13 players can get meaningful minutes?
Hey guy. I don't seriously believe that the 13th player gets minutes. that's the point. He's not any good.
Does Wenyen have some untapped potential to be a decent player? maybe. What's his ceiling? maybe the 5th best big on a team?
quote:
He won't get meaningful minutes either.
Maybe. Maybe not. The point is there's a chance a 2nd round pick becomes a starter, albeit very very low. There's also a chance they become a decent role player. There's also a chance they are out of the league in 2 years and never actually play. At least this player has a ceiling that's unknown. Why waste a roster spot on someone you aren't going to play, and doesn't have any upside potential?
Posted on 6/3/21 at 2:02 pm to 3PieceSpicy
quote:
He’s restricted, but if he blatantly asks out, I don’t think we’d keep him here against his will after the JJ fiasco.
We sure as shite would.
“Go out and get an offer and we’ll try to sign and trade you. Or sign our contract and we’ll try and trade you later if it’s mutually beneficial. Or sign the qualifying offer.”
You don’t just let a RFA walk because he asks you to let him.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 2:16 pm to 3PieceSpicy
He still has no ultimate choice in the matter as he's a RFA. If he tells Griff he would prefer to sign elsewhere and would assist in working out a sign and trade, then that would be his only hope. They won't let him walk for free unless someone severely overpays him.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 3:42 pm to Soggymoss
It would be so like the Pelicans to let the only guy who plays defense walk.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 4:11 pm to SCP
I really Think Lonzo is going to get overpaid for the 99th best 3 point shooter in the league.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
Do people really think hart gets anywhere close to 15mil?
What do y'all think caruso gets?
I think he would be perfect for the pels.
He can defend, can handle the ball some, and will hit the open 3.
Tough as nails and will take a charge.
What do y'all think caruso gets?
I think he would be perfect for the pels.
He can defend, can handle the ball some, and will hit the open 3.
Tough as nails and will take a charge.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:37 pm to Chalkywhite84
Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:40 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.
If he only gets $10m then it’s a no brainer to bring him back because at that point he’s still an asset.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:43 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.
He's also an RFA, that often completely shuts down the market for mid level guys. You're not going to get him unless you sign him to an offer sheet you know the Pels won't match.
Does another team really want to pay Josh Hart $15 million? If so good for Josh. If not, he's going to be waiting by the phone for Griff's call assuming any tax space is left after the bigger moves are made.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
Wish the Lonzo and Hart odds were lower...don’t think I will like the price for either
Posted on 6/3/21 at 8:06 pm to TigerinATL
I don't see someone paying hart 15
What do you think caruso gets?
Pels could use his toughness.
What do you think caruso gets?
Pels could use his toughness.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 8:16 pm to Chalkywhite84
But his face is just too damn punchable.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 8:19 pm to SammyTiger
quote:just hope it isn’t the Pelicans
really Think Lonzo is going to get overpaid for the 99th best 3 point shooter in the league.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 8:58 pm to SaintTigerPel
It really is.
You will feel different about him when he is on the pels.
All those things that piss you off about him you will end up loving.
You will feel different about him when he is on the pels.
All those things that piss you off about him you will end up loving.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:11 pm to Chalkywhite84
I don’t hate his game at all. I just really hate his face.
Posted on 6/4/21 at 8:22 am to SaintTigerPel
I think the Pels have no choice but to resign Hart and Lonzo.
New York is the only team that can pay Lonzo Noth of $22M
I believe you will see Lonzo back on a short-term deal.
The Pels have salary cap issues with nearly $40M owed to Adam's and Bledsoe. The team will unfortunately be unable to sign James Johnson.
Can't see a major increase in the cap for this upcoming season.
New York is the only team that can pay Lonzo Noth of $22M
I believe you will see Lonzo back on a short-term deal.
The Pels have salary cap issues with nearly $40M owed to Adam's and Bledsoe. The team will unfortunately be unable to sign James Johnson.
Can't see a major increase in the cap for this upcoming season.
This post was edited on 6/4/21 at 8:51 am
Posted on 6/4/21 at 12:00 pm to 3PieceSpicy
Tough shite. If he signs a reasonable deal, no reason we don’t match it. He’s a solid player and would be easy to move in a trade later on for something better or to get another asset.
I’m not in the business of just giving away everything we got in the AD and Jrue trades for nothing b/c of feelings.
I’m not in the business of just giving away everything we got in the AD and Jrue trades for nothing b/c of feelings.
Posted on 6/4/21 at 2:25 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
Does another team really want to pay Josh Hart $15 million? If so good for Josh. If not, he's going to be waiting by the phone for Griff's call assuming any tax space is left after the bigger moves are made.
Yes, I think that the league's salary structure makes things difficult for an RFA like Hart, whose value is just a little more than the MLE, because it's unlikely that a team is going to tie up its cap space for a guy who isn't going to make a huge difference in their record, when they can get someone almost as good for a few million less with the MLE.
Hart will either re-sign with the Pels or there will be a sign-and-trade done.
Posted on 6/7/21 at 12:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:Guillory has never really proven to have significant inside info, so I assume this is just his personal opinion.
Will Guillory's latest piece in the Athletic examines what he thinks the odds are that the following players are back on the roster next season.
LINK
Lonzo: 40-50%
Hart: 60-70%
James Johnson: 10-20%
Hernangomez: 80-90%
Gabriel: 50-60%
I was a bit surprised by the number for James Johnson, but Guillory explains that Johnson is 34, a UFA, and has yet to win a ring, so he doesn't think that Johnson is going to want to play next season for a team that isn't a real contender.
I also think that the odds on Gabriel are higher than Guillory does. Gabriel is a team option at $1.7 million, and he'd finally become a regular part of the rotation at the end of the season, so I don't know why we wouldn't pick up the option.
Posted on 6/10/21 at 1:30 pm to GOP_Tiger
I would put it at:
Zo: 45%
Hart: 5%
Willy: 100%
Johnson: 0%
Gabriel: 60% (mostly just cap issues)
Zo: 45%
Hart: 5%
Willy: 100%
Johnson: 0%
Gabriel: 60% (mostly just cap issues)
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