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Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:18 am
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:18 am
Will Guillory's latest piece in the Athletic examines what he thinks the odds are that the following players are back on the roster next season.
LINK
Lonzo: 40-50%
Hart: 60-70%
James Johnson: 10-20%
Hernangomez: 80-90%
Gabriel: 50-60%
I was a bit surprised by the number for James Johnson, but Guillory explains that Johnson is 34, a UFA, and has yet to win a ring, so he doesn't think that Johnson is going to want to play next season for a team that isn't a real contender.
I also think that the odds on Gabriel are higher than Guillory does. Gabriel is a team option at $1.7 million, and he'd finally become a regular part of the rotation at the end of the season, so I don't know why we wouldn't pick up the option.
LINK
Lonzo: 40-50%
Hart: 60-70%
James Johnson: 10-20%
Hernangomez: 80-90%
Gabriel: 50-60%
I was a bit surprised by the number for James Johnson, but Guillory explains that Johnson is 34, a UFA, and has yet to win a ring, so he doesn't think that Johnson is going to want to play next season for a team that isn't a real contender.
I also think that the odds on Gabriel are higher than Guillory does. Gabriel is a team option at $1.7 million, and he'd finally become a regular part of the rotation at the end of the season, so I don't know why we wouldn't pick up the option.
7
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:29 am to GOP_Tiger
Wonder where he’s pulling these percentages from, his personal thoughts or things he’s heard from being around the team? I’d personally peg Hart at 0-25%. The 25% only coming to fruition if we offer him far more money than another team. His other percentages seem more in line. James Johnson has played for about 12 teams, so 10% is probably about right lol.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:31 am to 3PieceSpicy
quote:
personally peg Hart at 0-25%. The 25% only coming to fruition if we offer him far more money than another team
Hart’s restricted, son.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:32 am to 3PieceSpicy
Here's what he says about Hart:
quote:
Considering the Pelicans’ need for defensive versatility and players who bring a certain level of tenacity every night, it would be insane for them to allow Hart to walk.
I still say the end of the season would’ve looked much different for this club if Hart didn’t suffer a thumb injury on April 1 that required surgery and sidelined him for the final 25 games.
If anything, the Pels may have benefitted a bit from Hart’s absence because he didn’t get a chance to show how crucial he would’ve been during that run, which would’ve inevitably increased his price tag in restricted free agency.
I can’t see Hart getting much more than $10-15 million per year on the open market unless someone gets desperate to steal him from New Orleans. With his limitations as a ballhandler and three straight seasons shooting under 35 percent from 3, I find it hard to see that happening.
It is fair to wonder if Hart’s inconsistent outside shooting makes it worth the investment for the Pelicans when surrounding Williamson with shooters has to be the No. 1 priority this offseason. But I believe his numbers can improve once he has better playmakers around him and less of a burden on the defensive end.
He also played an important vocal role in the locker room for a team that didn’t have many loud voices leading the way.
At worst, he’ll have a salary that’s easy to move in a trade or stack up with other deals to go after someone in the $25-30 million range. It would be a huge mistake if the Pels allow him to walk away for nothing.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:35 am to SLafourche07
I think other teams are more likely to "overpay" for Lonzo than Hart. With this, I think it is more likely that Hart is with the Pels next year than Lonzo.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:36 am to SCP
Wish Lonzo's number was lower.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:38 am to GOP_Tiger
I would say most of those are about right except Wenyen. Not sure what would be the point of bringing him back. If he couldn't find minutes this year when we didn't have backup 4 and at times were playing Jaxson/Adams/JJ, then not sure when he'd ever get meaningful minutes.
I'd rather a 2nd round pick take his roster spot.
I'd rather a 2nd round pick take his roster spot.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:43 am to GOP_Tiger
I keep seeing this and that about Hart leaving, Griff loves Josh, Josh loves it in New Orleans, there's zero chance he's gone imo unless someone comes with a sign and trade package.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:56 am to Soggymoss
Josh made some comments at the end of the year that seem to indicate he was not happy, and JJ being one of his best friends in the league doesn't help.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:59 am to Fun Bunch
JJ and Hart share the same agent as well.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 11:03 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
I would say most of those are about right except Wenyen. Not sure what would be the point of bringing him back. If he couldn't find minutes this year when we didn't have backup 4 and at times were playing Jaxson/Adams/JJ, then not sure when he'd ever get meaningful minutes.
The best guess that I heard was that Wenyen had previously been turnover prone. We had enough problems with turnovers without playing another guy who was going to make the problem worse. Towards the end of the season, SVG believed that Wenyen had fixed most of the problems that were leading to turnovers and had the confidence to play him.
If that's the case -- if Wenyen got coached up during the season to the point where he could now be a valuable rotation player, then that's way better than a 2nd-round pick who likely would just sit the bench except in case of injuries.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 11:09 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
Josh made some comments at the end of the year that seem to indicate he was not happy, and JJ being one of his best friends in the league doesn't help.
Sorry we sent your best friend to a playoff team with a generational talent who’s one game away from upsetting the Clippers and getting to the second round.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 11:18 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The best guess that I heard was that Wenyen had previously been turnover prone.
Not sure how a guy that has an offensive game of catch and shoot 3's and hustle put backs can be turnover prone.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 11:28 am to TeddyPadillac
I am in my car right now, but someone had pulled up his Portland numbers and they were bad.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 11:40 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Gabriel is a team option at $1.7 million, and he'd finally become a regular part of the rotation at the end of the season, so I don't know why we wouldn't pick up the option.
Gabriel at best is a 4th big in the NBA. You have to take the end of the season in the NBA with a grain of salt as Gabriel was playing due to injuries and us going tank mode.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 11:42 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I can’t see Hart getting much more than $10-15 million per year on the open market unless someone gets desperate to steal him from New Orleans. With his limitations as a ballhandler and three straight seasons shooting under 35 percent from 3, I find it hard to see that happening.
I wont have heartburn at 12. 10-12 will make it a great deal. More and you start expecting levels of play that i dont think he brings.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 11:46 am to Fun Bunch
Every player in the league these days makes comments, at the end of the day it doesn't really matter. He's a RFA so Griff has all the control. Even after the trade and comments he still played his arse off, and he will always give 100% no matter what, and Dallas doing what they are doing definitely makes Griff look better in JJ and Josh's eye imo.
This post was edited on 6/3/21 at 11:48 am
Posted on 6/3/21 at 12:10 pm to Hester Carries
He might get around what Kuzma got. 13/yr
Posted on 6/3/21 at 1:39 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
I would say most of those are about right except Wenyen. Not sure what would be the point of bringing him back. If he couldn't find minutes this year when we didn't have backup 4 and at times were playing Jaxson/Adams/JJ, then not sure when he'd ever get meaningful minutes.
How many teams 13th player gets meaningful minutes? WTH do you expect from the 13th player? Do you seriously believe that 13 players can get meaningful minutes?
quote:
I'd rather a 2nd round pick take his roster spot.
He won't get meaningful minutes either.
Posted on 6/3/21 at 1:45 pm to SLafourche07
He’s restricted, but if he blatantly asks out, I don’t think we’d keep him here against his will after the JJ fiasco.
Also Josh “loved” New Orleans. That was before Covid and having a sour experience for 2 years. The clues were in his exit interview. He was speaking past tense as frick in terms of the team and he never does that. To me he sounded like a guy that has made up his mind. Lonzo seems much more open to staying imo.
Also Josh “loved” New Orleans. That was before Covid and having a sour experience for 2 years. The clues were in his exit interview. He was speaking past tense as frick in terms of the team and he never does that. To me he sounded like a guy that has made up his mind. Lonzo seems much more open to staying imo.
This post was edited on 6/3/21 at 1:46 pm
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