Conference Auto Bids (updated 5/30/2021)

Going to keep a running list going this week so we know where we sit and who we need to win this week. I’d like to formally thank the big 10 and pac 12 for not having conference tournaments to eliminate shenanigans shrinking the bubble and congrats to the Southern Jaguars

American: USF
America East: NJIT
Atlantic 10: VCU
ACC: Duke
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big 12: TCU
Big East: UConn
Big South: Presbyterian
Big Ten: Nebraska
Big West: UC Irvine
Colonial: Northeastern
Conference USA: Old Dominion
Horizon: Wright State
Metro Atlantic: Rider
Mid-American: Cental Michigan
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Dallas Baptist
Mountain West: Nevada
Northeast: Central Connecticut State
Ohio Valley: SE Missouri St
Pac 12: Arizona
Patriot: Army
Southeastern: Arkansas
Southern: Samford
Southland: Mcneese
Summit: North Dakota St
Sun Belt: South Alabama
SWAC: Southern
Western Athletic: Grand Canyon
WCC: Gonzaga

Locks and Bubbles
American: We want ECU to win this thing. Cincy swept Tulane this past weekend which puts cincy up the ladder but this can potentially be a one bid ECU with all others RPI’s at 77+

America East: tourney winner will be only team in. Stony brook, NJIT and Albany are top 3 teams.

Atlantic 10: VCU has rpi of 34 and could potentially be an at large but we want them to win to take the auto away from the rest. Rhode Island has next best rpi at 64 but is 27-24-1 overall. So fingers crossed this is VCU.

ACC: Let’s cheer for Notre Dame, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech, and Miami as both record and rpi look safely in as at large bids. Virginia and North Carolina are at 27-22 and 26-24 respectively with rpis at 45 and 46 with Louisville on rough patch going 3-7 in last 10 and slipping to 27-21 with an rpi of 67. Looks to be a 6 team league most likely with 7 at best. Pittsburgh has fallen off a cliff since being listed as potential regional destination.

Atlantic Sun: similar to A-10, this time it is liberty at 37-12 with an rpi of 28. They win and it’s a one team league if not depends on where they fall in at large picture

Big 12: hoping for Texas, Tcu, Texas tech and Oklahoma st to win this thing. Baylor and Oklahoma are on the bubble but I believe they play a round robin format prior to semis or finals.

Big East: UConn (rpi at 22) looks to be in regardless so it’s another cheer for them to lock up the auto bid. Rest of conference appears to be needing that auto bid with rpis around 100.

Big South: Campbell and SC upstate both sitting at 33-14 and 37-14 with rpis of 38 and 43 with everyone else way behind. If either of these teams loses early, they should plummet out of bubble. Best case scenario is one of them wins and this is a one bid league.

Big 10: Nebraska is in with the auto bid and looking like a mess afterwards. No non conference games has lead to some weird rpis. I expect them to get in 3 total with a pair of Maryland/Indiana/Michigan to go with Nebraska. Don’t think they should get all 4 in.

Big west: here’s where we may see some west coast teams get in. UC Irvine is at 36-16 with rpi of 33 so ideally they’re the auto bid. UCSB (35-18 rpi 56) and Long Beach (24-15 rpi of 69) are the challengers. I believe this goes to two teams if Irvine doesn’t win and the Gauchos win it.

Colonial: northeastern has an rpi of 39 with a 32-9 record. After that UNC Wilmington is at rpi of 70. Need northeastern to take this or get eliminated early and hope they fall off the bubble.

Conference USA: looks a legitimate four team year for them. Charlotte, LA Tech, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss. all 4 have RPIs below 30. Need one of them to lock up the conference.

Horizon: Wright St or bust here. They are sitting with an rpi of 30 so we want them to hold serve in the tourney

Metro Atlantic: well Fairfield loses to Rider and now Fairfield becomes an at large candidate. Curious how the committee treats the perennial one bid league.

MAC: looks like a one team league unless ball st moves up rpi a bit and loses in championship but I don’t see it being enough. Conference tourney winner should be like rep.

Missouri Valley: Indiana st is at 37 in rpi with Dallas Baptist leading the conference in record by sitting mid 50’s in rpi. Let’s pull for the Sycamores to keep this a one bid conference.

Mountain west: no conference tourney but some pivotal matchups this weeks. Nevada leading conference rankings with rpi sitting mid 20’s. If San Diego st takes 3/4 this weekend, the Aztecs could take the auto bid.

Northeast: one bid conference regardless of champ. Bryant currently leading conference

Ohio valley: one bid conference regardless of champ. Southeast Missouri state leading the way

PAC 12: in addition to Arizona, we’re looking at Oregon, Stanford, Oregon st, and Arizona st being locked in with UCLA looking good. Cal is a fringe team that needs chalks to win their conferences.

Patriot: Army takes the auto bid. Was going to be a one bid conference regardless

SEC: LSU going out early hurts, but Georgia losing to arky and ole miss helps out. Alabama is out of sec tourney as well after the 11-0 loss to Tennessee. Still think we’re sitting good as long as bubble doesn’t shrink. LSU/bama/Georgia all as 3 seeds in latest projections

SoCon: another one bid league. Samford, wofford and Mercer are leading the regular season.

Southland: another one bid league. Hopefully this one brings some Louisiana flavor to the tourney. Abilene Christian currently leading the way

Summit: one bid league with oral roberts and North Dakota st leading regular season.

Sun Belt: one bid league with ULL, south Alabama, and Georgia southern leading the regular season.

WAC: one bid league with California baptist and grand canyon leading the regular season

WCC: Gonzaga getting auto bid makes this a one bid conference. Big news for bubble teams