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Message
Will lumber prices go down by years end?
Posted on 5/7/21 at 8:11 pm
Posted on 5/7/21 at 8:11 pm
Wife and I are building our dream home at the end of the year but these lumber prices are making me rethink until next year. Are there any indication that it will go down by years end? I am not talking about pre China flu levels. I am talking about 600-700 per 1000 board feet. Any signs or hope would be appreciated. I know there have been numerous threads about lumber prices but none about the future of it. Appreciate the replies.
13
Posted on 5/7/21 at 8:12 pm to shoelessjoe
No
Posted on 5/7/21 at 8:19 pm to shoelessjoe
They’re getting that price now so why would they ever go down?
Posted on 5/7/21 at 11:05 pm to shoelessjoe
No to much frickery going on
Posted on 5/7/21 at 11:23 pm to shoelessjoe
A guy told me they've been smuggling in 2x4s hidden in cocaine.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 12:55 am to johnnydrama
I’m thinking once demand halts it could really come down quick.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 5:58 am to shoelessjoe
I’m hoping this fall-winter. It’s a slower building season anyway due to weather and hopefully a lot of people who are willing to build at these prices will have built. Demand should drop.
At least I’m hoping so.
At least I’m hoping so.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 8:34 am to Allthatfades
In the same boat. Hoping to save "some".... 
Posted on 5/8/21 at 8:37 am to shoelessjoe
Yes, prices are going to start coming down before end of year. Likely to plummet by end of year or in 2022. For some reason any mention of lumber prices falling brings the negative votes on this board. 
but it is going to happen.
From Bloomberg:
I think lumber is currently around $1300 per 1000 board feet so a price drop of over 50% to 60% is coming. It's just pure economics and supply/demand. Lumber prices are high and the industry is responding on the supply side. Supply is going to overtake demand and prices will plummet. Took awhile to create a "shortage" and it is taking time to build a "surplus". Lumber prices will reset back to 2019 prices + inflation over the last 18 months.
You can take this to the bank. Anyone that tells you differently is an idiot.
but it is going to happen. From Bloomberg:
quote:
All told, we forecast that the price of U.S. lumber will plummet to $600 and $550 per 1,000 broad feet by end-2021 and end-2022,
I think lumber is currently around $1300 per 1000 board feet so a price drop of over 50% to 60% is coming. It's just pure economics and supply/demand. Lumber prices are high and the industry is responding on the supply side. Supply is going to overtake demand and prices will plummet. Took awhile to create a "shortage" and it is taking time to build a "surplus". Lumber prices will reset back to 2019 prices + inflation over the last 18 months.
You can take this to the bank. Anyone that tells you differently is an idiot.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 8:39 am to Tridentds
quote:
I think lumber is currently around $1300 per 1000 board feet
Try $1670
Posted on 5/8/21 at 8:46 am to hawgndodge
quote:
Try $1670
Good lawd. Time to short lumber.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 12:10 pm to shoelessjoe
Nah, what we are seeing is the effects of increasing the money supply by 4 trillion dollars.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 12:32 pm to shoelessjoe
Rates are going to have an impact, so if we see a pretty good rate hike by year’s end, something will give.
Posted on 5/8/21 at 7:15 pm to Tridentds
quote:
Took awhile to create a "shortage" and it is taking time to build a "surplus". Lumber prices will reset back to 2019 prices + inflation over the last 18 months. You can take this to the bank. Anyone that tells you differently is an idiot
Bold statement
I’d say that if you don’t put your money where your mouth is, you could also be in the same boat as the folks you claim to be idiots...
So... you willing to make that bet?
Posted on 5/8/21 at 7:45 pm to GeauxldMember
quote:
Rates are going to have an impact, so if we see a pretty good rate hike by year’s end, something will give.
I agree with this but the fed seems intent on keeping rates low
The market might force their hand though
Posted on 5/9/21 at 11:01 am to SlidellCajun
Lumber mills that were closed during the pandemic are starting to open back up ......
The owners of the mills realize an economic potential when they see one.
The owners of the mills realize an economic potential when they see one.
Posted on 5/9/21 at 12:04 pm to bluedragon
Mills that closed at the beginning of the pandemic have been open for nearly a year now. The only mills coming online now are new builds or renovations.
Posted on 5/9/21 at 12:47 pm to DumpsterFire
Gotta say, 6 months ago, I would have laughed at the thought of lumber more than doubling the price by May.
It’s gone from $650 to almost $1,700 per 1k board feet
Anyone considering building a new home should just say no out of protest
It’s gone from $650 to almost $1,700 per 1k board feet
Anyone considering building a new home should just say no out of protest
Posted on 5/10/21 at 9:01 am to SlidellCajun
I agree, I never would have thought this is where prices would be right now. Just praying things go down to half of where it’s at by years end. At these prices, builders will be thinking twice.
Posted on 5/10/21 at 1:12 pm to shoelessjoe
I’m getting $65 a sheet 5/8 cdx. 10k to deck an average size house. Wow
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