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Started By
Message
Anyone follow lumber prices?
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:00 pm
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:00 pm
Looking to build/repair a substantial privacy fence this year, but ya know...any insight into what the future holds? Baton Rouge area. Is this the right board for this post?
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:09 pm to ThreeBonesCater
Homebuilding has kept the price inflated for the last 10-12 months. There won't be a substantial drop until after summer, maybe.
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:23 pm to ThreeBonesCater
Might want to post this on the money board.
(Kidding)
(Kidding)
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:28 pm to ThreeBonesCater
I built a bench in my backyard and it hurt my fricking feelings.
Posted on 1/29/21 at 6:47 pm to tilco
If that hurt your feelings don’t build a house. We started a house this winter and let’s just say building materials in general were way more expensive than the quote I got in early spring. But hey at least I have a low interest rate!
Posted on 1/29/21 at 7:57 pm to ThreeBonesCater
I’m hoping that there is not a complete shut down come summer. Right now there are some things that are getting hard to even get. The prices are basically set so supply can catch up to demand and it’s not happening. I don’t see pricing getting back to normal in the near future.
Posted on 1/30/21 at 2:21 pm to ThreeBonesCater
Currently replacing 350’ now. It’s brutal: 1x6x8 #1 Western Red Cedar are $7.75 a board. After doing some research, prices aren’t going to drop substantially for a while.
This post was edited on 1/30/21 at 2:22 pm
Posted on 2/1/21 at 3:16 am to ThreeBonesCater
4x4x10 treated fence posts were $19 last time i recall. today, they're $49. fence plans are on hold.
Posted on 2/1/21 at 8:12 am to SEC. 593
quote:
There won't be a substantial drop until after summer, maybe.
Even then, I don't imagine it drops much more. In the process of starting to build a house. My lumber cost went up 8000. I said F it, I'm not waiting around for another year hoping that may drop in half.
Posted on 2/1/21 at 8:58 am to BlackPot
quote:
Even then, I don't imagine it drops much more. In the process of starting to build a house. My lumber cost went up 8000. I said F it, I'm not waiting around for another year hoping that may drop in half.
i dodged some bullets with our remodel this last year. we got our original quote back in early spring before the jump, then there was a huge jump in prices, we had some trouble with financing (F each and every person coming from CA to TX flooding our market) then when we got to the build in early fall prices had settled by the time we were getting materials in, and they jumped in December right after we finished with most lumber needs.
i was asking my GC about it this weekend and he's said he's having to go back to people and tell them the cost on new builds has gone up $10-20k just in lumber in some situations.
Posted on 2/1/21 at 3:31 pm to Art Vandelay
Even though your experience is in latex(!), I appreciate your insight on lumber.
We're building and our lumber prices are up about 44% since we began construction but I don't really see a major benefit in waiting now that we're done with the slab and ready for framing. Are there other indicators out there we can watch to see if there's any appreciable benefit to waiting for prices to drop? Should we buy all the lumber now versus on demand/floating with market prices?
As a hedge, is therr an ETF that tracks a construction cost index, commodity prices or something similar? I'd buy a few shares of the 'lumber stock' proxy to insulate me from price swings and to help me profit from the rising costs. I did this I 2008 with rising gas costs, buying energy ETFs.
We're building and our lumber prices are up about 44% since we began construction but I don't really see a major benefit in waiting now that we're done with the slab and ready for framing. Are there other indicators out there we can watch to see if there's any appreciable benefit to waiting for prices to drop? Should we buy all the lumber now versus on demand/floating with market prices?
As a hedge, is therr an ETF that tracks a construction cost index, commodity prices or something similar? I'd buy a few shares of the 'lumber stock' proxy to insulate me from price swings and to help me profit from the rising costs. I did this I 2008 with rising gas costs, buying energy ETFs.
Posted on 2/1/21 at 5:36 pm to ThreeBonesCater
Building now. Just bought 1x6x12 tg white pine $10 board. 14 ft $11.50....Prices suck but I've found waiting 3 months for windows one of the most insane things i've ever seen.
Posted on 2/2/21 at 10:32 am to GoIrish02
I just don’t see it coming down. Not enough to justify waiting. Unless you can wait until October. Get your shot done before it becomes more of a problem getting stuff. Then you stuck paying fees on your loan for taking too long. And if you are not borrowing you should. Rates are too cheap to use cash.
Posted on 2/2/21 at 2:03 pm to ThreeBonesCater
quote:
Anyone follow lumber prices?
I tried but got altitude sickness. :rimshot:
It really is bananas right now. If they give us another stimulus check, I assume it will get worse.
Lumber prices have made me a believer in the Great Reset. They're trying to make us lose our minds.
This post was edited on 2/2/21 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 2/2/21 at 5:22 pm to Art Vandelay
quote:
just don’t see it coming down. Not enough to justify waiting. Unless you can wait until October.
Afraid that It’s about to go higher
Very large recent fire at a lumber mill in Mississippi is going to put a dent in the supply side
Posted on 2/3/21 at 5:10 am to BornCritic
quote:
Lumber prices have made me a believer in the Great Reset. They're trying to make us lose our minds
Nah. It's simple supply side economics. For decades, Canada operated their forests as a jobs program. They harvested at a way higher rate than they grow back. Of course the forests are 90% owned by the government so it's no surprise that they were grossly mismanaged. The government even built the CN Railroad all throughout the remote timber belt of interior Canada. And subsidized flat car rates into the US. So free timber and nearly free transportation. And low interest government loans to build sawmills.
For decades the Canadians could deliver a 2x6 to Memphis TN cheaper than a pine sawmill in Mississippi could. So, not enough pine sawmills were built in the Southeast.
Now, I am not so sad to report, that Canada is basically out of Timber. And they're closing several sawmills every year. Plus a more environmentally friendly liberal government is finally cutting back on their unsustainable harvest practices. So their lumber production is now in a significant decline.
The Southeast USA has been growing three times as much pine timber as we have been harvesting. We don't have nearly enough sawmills. So the business is suddenly very profitable here
There's a rush to catch up. We are building about 4 or 5 new modern pine sawmills per year in the SE over the past 5 years. But it will take another 10 years to bring things back into balance. Until then, lumber prices will be subject to seasonal shortages and lots of volatility.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 5:12 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
Very large recent fire at a lumber mill in Mississippi is going to put a dent in the supply side
If you're talking about Scotch plywood in Waynesboro, that's a plywood mill not a lumber mill. And yes, it was about 4% of pine plywood production. And it is definitely screwing up the market.
I can't think of a major lumber producer that burned recently.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 6:27 am to No Colors
Yeah, I’m talking scotch mill.
I probably shouldn’t lump it in with lumber. Several of the builders I talk to tell me that Scotch supplies their plywood and they expect a big jump in price on that as well as what we’re seeing in lumber and it’s just another increase in cost for supplies which they could ill afford. New builds are continuing though for these guys so nothing seems bothered... it’s not like they’re hurting for work.
I probably shouldn’t lump it in with lumber. Several of the builders I talk to tell me that Scotch supplies their plywood and they expect a big jump in price on that as well as what we’re seeing in lumber and it’s just another increase in cost for supplies which they could ill afford. New builds are continuing though for these guys so nothing seems bothered... it’s not like they’re hurting for work.
Posted on 2/3/21 at 9:56 am to No Colors
quote:
No Colors
Thank you for the very informative post.
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