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Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:24 pm
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:24 pm
The Cowboys/Falcons game stirred up the national debate that occurs at least several times a year, and I genuinely have no idea why this is still a debate.
It is objective, statistical fact that going for two after the first TD when down by 15 is the right move. You want to know as early as possible whether you need two or three scores. This seems not only intuitive to me but is backed up by decades of data, which shows that teams who go for in the first time in this scenario win the game more often than those who until the second score to try. This is because teams who MISS the attempt when trying after the first score know they have to get the ball twice more and play accordingly (as Dallas did). This is opposed to teams who wait until the second score to try, at which point if they fail they’ve often played it down to the wire with too little time left and put everything on that play. There is no debate to be had here, there’s simply a right and wrong answer.
Yet every year I see fans and sports talking heads, in HUGE NUMBERS, who simply cannot wrap their heads around the above explanation. They ask “why would you do something that potentially leaves you still down by two scores” and say “you want to extend the game”, and I’m left wondering how they dress themselves successfully each morning.
I know humans in general are dumb and illogical, but this has been explained to all of these people repeatedly for YEARS.
It is objective, statistical fact that going for two after the first TD when down by 15 is the right move. You want to know as early as possible whether you need two or three scores. This seems not only intuitive to me but is backed up by decades of data, which shows that teams who go for in the first time in this scenario win the game more often than those who until the second score to try. This is because teams who MISS the attempt when trying after the first score know they have to get the ball twice more and play accordingly (as Dallas did). This is opposed to teams who wait until the second score to try, at which point if they fail they’ve often played it down to the wire with too little time left and put everything on that play. There is no debate to be had here, there’s simply a right and wrong answer.
Yet every year I see fans and sports talking heads, in HUGE NUMBERS, who simply cannot wrap their heads around the above explanation. They ask “why would you do something that potentially leaves you still down by two scores” and say “you want to extend the game”, and I’m left wondering how they dress themselves successfully each morning.
I know humans in general are dumb and illogical, but this has been explained to all of these people repeatedly for YEARS.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:28 pm to LSUBoo
I mean, there are former coaches arguing today that MM made the wrong call. I just don’t understand how that happens. How can you be so wrong about something so obvious and relevant to your specialty?
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:35 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:let’s preface that. It’s better until about 9:00 left in the fourth quarter. Any later, and it’s simply too late in the game to risk being down by two scores
It is objective, statistical fact that going for two after the first TD when down by 15 is the right move.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:38 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:What?
Any later, and it’s simply too late in the game to risk being down by two scores
You do realize you're going to be down 2 scores either way if you miss the 2pt conversion?
The OP's point, something I've been talking about for years on here, is people assume being down 8 points is a 1 possession game when at least 50% of the time if not more you're still down 2 possessions when you're down 8.
The issue is assuming you're down 1 possession so you don't rush and play it accordingly and you end up scoring and missing the 2pt conversion but with little or not enough time on the clock.
This post was edited on 9/21/20 at 9:40 pm
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:38 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
let’s preface that. It’s better until about 9:00 left in the fourth quarter. Any later, and it’s simply too late in the game to risk being down by two scores
IT DOESNT MATTER HOW MUCH TIME IS LEFT
You aren’t “risking being down two scores”, you’re finding out if you’ll need an extra possession as early as possible. If you miss after scoring the second TD, you’re STILL DOWN A SCORE but have now played yourself into a position where you may not be able to do anything meaningful about it.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:39 pm to Roger Klarvin
I saw some people say that players will try harder knowing they’re only down 8, vs. two scores.
But they’d also try hard if they’re down 7. It’s always better to go early and I don’t get why people can’t seem to fathom that. You always want to know what all you need to do.
But they’d also try hard if they’re down 7. It’s always better to go early and I don’t get why people can’t seem to fathom that. You always want to know what all you need to do.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:40 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:I've heard that argument as well, and it is quite literally just completely made up.
I saw some people say that players will try harder knowing they’re only down 8, vs. two scores
This post was edited on 9/21/20 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:40 pm to shel311
quote:
What?
You do realize you're going to be down 2 scores either way if you miss the 2pt conversion?
The OP's point, something I've been talking about for years on here, is people assume being down 8 points is a 1 possession game when at least 50% of the time if not more you're still down 2 possessions when you're down 8.
I think a lot of people somehow (incorrectly) believe your chances of successfully trying for two are higher after the second score.
That or they are just brain farting over and over and over
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:41 pm to Roger Klarvin
Sports coaches don’t have to be smart. And often times coaches lend themselves to group think. Why don’t more teams go for two earlier in games? Why don’t teams go for it on 4th down more often?
We’re seeing shifts a little bit but just like your scenario, there aren’t objective stats/data to support why this is agreed upon “basic strategy” other than because it’s the way everyone else has always done it
We’re seeing shifts a little bit but just like your scenario, there aren’t objective stats/data to support why this is agreed upon “basic strategy” other than because it’s the way everyone else has always done it
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:42 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:I don't think it's that as much as the illusion that you're down 1 possession when down 8 points. You're at best 50% chance to be down 1 possession but it's just assumed to automatically be 1 possession, and that's the issue imo.
I think a lot of people somehow (incorrectly) believe your chances of successfully trying for two are higher after the second score
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:43 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:you got a link to this study?
but is backed up by decades of data,
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:45 pm to castorinho
quote:Good call out. While I believe it's just very, very obvious common sense, I've never seen actual data on it.
you got a link to this study?
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:46 pm to shel311
quote:
I've heard that argument as well, and it is quite literally just completely made up.
Yep. Completely agree.
It makes it more exciting when you go for it 2nd, but it’s the wrong move.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:46 pm to shel311
quote:because you’re thinking in terms of touchdowns
it's just assumed to automatically be 1 possession, and that's the issue imo.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:47 pm to Roger Klarvin
I had been wondering why people didn't do it more often before.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:47 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:What?
because you’re thinking in terms of touchdowns
Not sure what that means.
This post was edited on 9/21/20 at 9:48 pm
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:52 pm to Roger Klarvin
quote:Is not about thinking chances are better, but about the psychology of the players. The teams playing a one possession game v a two possession game. I'm not advocating the thinking, but just explaining it. A team has just scored to potentially make a big deficit a one possession game. Going for two and failing takes the wind out of the sails because it remains a two possession game.
I think a lot of people somehow (incorrectly) believe your chances of successfully trying for two are higher after the second score
Posted on 9/21/20 at 9:58 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:Fwiw, I've been the guy over the years that's said the math is to go for two early but that there's a psychological aspect (unmeasurable) on the opponent of guaranteeing it being a "one possession game" (though it's really 1.5 poss). But that's based on nothing, so seeing the data would help clear that for me.
Yep. Completely agree.
It makes it more exciting when you go for it 2nd, but it’s the wrong move.
Posted on 9/21/20 at 10:00 pm to WDE24
quote:that’s why the time left matters. Going for that two in the third quarter makes more sense than when you score that first touchdown deep in the 4th quarter
Is not about thinking chances are better, but about the psychology of the players. The teams playing a one possession game v a two possession game. I'm not advocating the thinking, but just explaining it. A team has just scored to potentially make a big deficit a one possession game. Going for two and failing takes the wind out of the sails because it remains a two possession game.
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