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Started By
Message
re: I think we can all agree now that models are not accurate.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:35 pm to Chieeefs
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:35 pm to Chieeefs
quote:
The Spanish Flu pandemic started in March 1918...subsided over the summer...and then exploded & peaked in Fall 1918.
Point is this shite has happened before. Don't let improving numbers fool you.
Literally there’s gonna be like body bags, y’all.
Like literally.
0
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:46 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Models for global warming, models for viruses...
I bet you think this is a good gotcha. But it's not.
There's vastly more long-term data to put into models for global warming. That's not to say that they're necessarily accurate, but it's really a shitty comparison. Very, very different scenarios with very different data sets.
It shouldn't be too surprising that the early models for COVID-19 were off the mark with little to no good data to drive them.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:47 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:its honestly remarkable how people have latched onto this
models for viruses...
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:48 pm to Hulkklogan
quote:especially considering the fact that those virus models were all based on if we did nothing
I bet you think this is a good gotcha. But it's not.
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 6:49 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:50 pm to Hulkklogan
quote:
Very, very different scenarios with very different data sets.
How many data sets for global warming?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:51 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
if we did nothing
Got a believer!
Everyone staying at home reduced it from 2M to 60K!
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:56 pm to ThuperThumpin
Everyone in the south knows better. That's why it's the leading region in the united states.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:04 pm to ThuperThumpin
quote:
Do you criticize hurricane models for not being accurate 2 weeks from landfall? It's the best these researchers can do folks...
Then it’s not good enough . frick em
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:07 pm to tigerinthebueche
Models aren’t intended to be accurate. They are used to influence behavior to the result of the authorities/experts. Mission accomplished.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:10 pm to PrivatePublic
quote:
Predicting the future is hard?
Who could have predicted that?
We might want to remember that next time before we start recommending doing trillions of dollars of damage to the economy.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:10 pm to ThuperThumpin
quote:
Do you criticize hurricane models for not being accurate 2 weeks from landfall? It's the best these researchers can do folks...
That's why we don't evacuate 2 weeks before landfall, retard.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:18 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Obviously not enough to shut the country down?
How much do you think it did though?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:18 pm to WestCoastAg
The 200k death models were based on full isolation. Nice try.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:20 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Models for global warming, models for viruses...
It's like people can't help themselves.
They inject unrelated politics into everything. It's a plague.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:23 pm to GeauxTigers777
i was under the assumption that OP was talking about the 2.2 million model which, considering his response to me, was a fair assumption to make
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:32 pm to Errerrerrwere
Yeah we should just ditch all the freaking stupid science shite and just hire the psycho network?????
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:36 pm to Errerrerrwere
If this were the 80s it would be pretty bad. Now we have delivery services, cell phones, work from home options.
2MM number could have easily happened.
The only difference is coding hipsters in Asia think it's cool to eat bats. Those need types didn't eat bats in the 80s
2MM number could have easily happened.
The only difference is coding hipsters in Asia think it's cool to eat bats. Those need types didn't eat bats in the 80s
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:39 pm to ThuperThumpin
quote:
Do you criticize hurricane models for not being accurate 2 weeks from landfall? It's the best these researchers can do folks...
But we reacted like the hurricane was just forming in the Atlantic, and New Orleans was ordered to evacuate to Georgia with the hurricane off the coast of Africa. Then two weeks later the models shifted towards the east coast and all the Nola residents are ordered to stay where they are.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:40 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
Yeah we should just ditch all the freaking stupid science shite and just hire the psycho network?????
You wouldn’t know it if it hit you in the arse!
Posted on 4/10/20 at 7:50 pm to Errerrerrwere
That "15 cases, will soon be 0" model sure was accurate.
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