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I think we can all agree now that models are not accurate.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:07 pm
Models for global warming, models for viruses...
Do you really think stay at home orders were the reason for going from 2 M deaths to 60,000?
If you do; I have a bridge to sell ya.
Do you really think stay at home orders were the reason for going from 2 M deaths to 60,000?
If you do; I have a bridge to sell ya.
24
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:09 pm to Errerrerrwere
The only models I know require 2 eight balls of ka-caine and a half can of spam to be useful.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:09 pm to Errerrerrwere
Yet most people will always bow down and lockstep in agreement to their masters. The Gubment and the TV Newsman
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:09 pm to Errerrerrwere
It’s gonna be an above average hurricane season
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:10 pm to Errerrerrwere
Predicting the future is hard?
Who could have predicted that?
Who could have predicted that?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:10 pm to Errerrerrwere
modeling exponential growth phenomena, which is super sensitive based on model parameters, given a small subset of data that contains errors is going to lead to enormous margins of error when you extrapolate, even if the initial errors are small
Don’t fault the model creators, fault those that took them as gospel despite them being worth next to nothing in their adolescence
Don’t fault the model creators, fault those that took them as gospel despite them being worth next to nothing in their adolescence
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:11 pm to Ross
quote:
fault those that took them as gospel despite them being worth next to nothing in their adolescence
WaWaWeeWa is crying somewhere right now
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:12 pm to Ross
Yessir
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:22 pm to Errerrerrwere
Do you criticize hurricane models for not being accurate 2 weeks from landfall? It's the best these researchers can do folks...
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:23 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Do you really think stay at home orders were the reason for going from 2 M deaths to 60,000?
But how much do you think it did move the needle?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:23 pm to Errerrerrwere
We talking truss, arch, cantilever, cable stay, suspension? What?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:25 pm to Errerrerrwere
quote:
Models for global warming, models for viruses...
I have been making this observation for a while but it's not just the models that have similarities, those who subscribe to them lock, stock, and barrel seem to be of the same ilk as well.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:25 pm to Errerrerrwere
The question I have is were are leaders told how possibly inaccurate these models could be or were they told they could have high confidence in the numbers
This post was edited on 4/10/20 at 7:00 pm
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:28 pm to NoSaint
quote:
But how much do you think it did move the needle?
Obviously not enough to shut the country down?
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:29 pm to Errerrerrwere
The Spanish Flu pandemic started in March 1918...subsided over the summer...and then exploded & peaked in Fall 1918.
Point is this shite has happened before. Don't let improving numbers fool you.
Point is this shite has happened before. Don't let improving numbers fool you.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:29 pm to Errerrerrwere
"All models are wrong, some models are helpful"
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:29 pm to Errerrerrwere
You people on here probably hate plus size models too
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:31 pm to Errerrerrwere
We should thank the government for taking care of us through this. They know more about us then we know about ourselves.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:31 pm to Errerrerrwere
They are about as accurate as all the polls the last 4 years. I just wish Trump had a chance in 2020. CNN poll has him losing by 11% to Biden.
Posted on 4/10/20 at 6:33 pm to Errerrerrwere
The problem is too many people want immediate answers and can’t handle a “we aren’t really sure”. So instead of the truth being, not enough time has gone by to determine and answer, people get fed BS predictions.
They can be fun sometimes like in sports but this ain’t the time for BS.
I would much rather have rationale and truthful answers with an explanation.
They can be fun sometimes like in sports but this ain’t the time for BS.
I would much rather have rationale and truthful answers with an explanation.
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