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re: Will wade on 3 pt defense
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:18 pm to josh336
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:18 pm to josh336
quote:
He seems to believe its kind of a luck stat.
So here's the thing--it IS, in large part, something that the defense can't control particularly well (this has been proven true across large sample sizes). However, there are two huge caveats: 1) wide-open 3s will always go in at a higher-rate than contested 3s, and 2) three point ATTEMPTS allowed IS very much within the defense's control.
Basically, at the end of the day, poor 3P defense is typically going to manifest more in the form of more 3PA allowed than in the form of a higher 3P% allowed. But that is absolutely NO fricking excuse for having guys go under on ball-screens while up 6 in the final minute against one of the best 3P shooting teams in the country.
I'm not a WW hater at all--i think he's an incredible recruiter and has breathed some much-needed life into this LSU basketball program--but the coaching down towards the end of that game was absolutely inexcusable.
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 3:20 pm
1
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:21 pm to josh336
quote:
Are there teams that regularly rank in the top 50 in the country in 3 pt defense? Think that would kind of disprove this
Yes, Duke for sure is one.
But then you have the element of how much of that is playing tough defense vs. just having better players, etc etc...
Hard to really say but cant argue against 3 point shooting being fairly heavily influenced by luck game to game way more than 2 point or FT shooting is. This is evidenced by the wild jumps in percentages.
However, as I said, there's a reason why some teams can defend it at 26% vs. 36% over the course of the season and the majority of that is due to how well they defend the arc.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:21 pm to LifeAquatic
They actually arent that great of a 3pt shooting team
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:21 pm to josh336
Going under a screen against a 3 pt shooter is not "luck"; it's bad basketball. Hell, if a player does that for my son's 9th grade team they get pulled and an arse chewing. You fight like hell over the screen with other players talking telling you when/where the screen is.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:21 pm to josh336
If he thinks it’s luck, how come LSU is rarely lucky shooting the 3? Lol
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:21 pm to josh336
All you need to look at is how many times we have to sprint and lunge to try to block a 3. We are never in the offensive players face as soon as he gets the ball. We’re flat footed 6 ft away when he gets the ball or we are lazily going underneath a screen allowing the shooter to be wide open.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:22 pm to thunderbird1100
I wasn't able to listen so I don't know context, but the principle of any defense in any sport is to throw the offense out of rhythm and to make the opponent uncomfortable. If we statistically surrender a higher percentage of 3's to our opponents we are obviously failing at that most basic concept.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:22 pm to josh336
quote:
Kind of looking for opinions on those not biased against Wade. Run along.
It’s a free country. I’m not biased against him. I tell the truth which hurts some people’s feelings.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:22 pm to josh336
LSU defends the 3 as if there is a land mine that will blow up if they extend over the 3-point line. That may be ok sometimes, but when a team gets obviously hot and you just need a stop or two to secure the game, you have to go beyond the line and stick on them like glue with hands up to mess up any attempt. LSU does not do this and they need some adjustments there. It was like we wanted to defend the 3, but only to an extent. And Auburn took that and ran.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:26 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
I’m not biased against him.
Yeah.....you are
That doesn’t mean you are wrong in this instance, but you have a weird hatred of Will Wade.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:28 pm to Big EZ Tiger
Here's another element to poor 3 point defense - we start 3 true forwards, 6'6 Days, 6'6 Williams, 6'9 Watford. None of them have any business guarding a guard who can dribble drive or shoot the 3, yet we get into that situation a lot because a ton of teams basically play 3 guard lineups and we dont. Not to mention Smart is simply not adept to defending well at the arc either. So, we many many time have 4 guys on the floor who arent necessarily guys you want defending the arc.
The heavy forward lineup gives us advantages on the offensive end though. So give and take some there.
The heavy forward lineup gives us advantages on the offensive end though. So give and take some there.
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:31 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
I’m not biased against him.
That's frickin rich
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:31 pm to red sox fan 13
In theory he is probably right. When you look at the teams who lead the nation in % of total points that come from 3 pointers you don't often see a ton of teams in that group who are NCAAT teams. The most notable recent exception is the 2018 Villanova team that won the NC. However, that team was also #11 in defensive efficiency.
Three point shooting is probably the most unreliable means of generating offense on a consistent basis. When you're hot it's very tough to stop (see Auburn's Final Four run last season). But teams who live and die by the three die more often than they live.
So yes, the analytics say forcing a lot of three pointers from your opponent is a good defensive strategy. But sometimes the analytics are "wrong" when it comes to your particular team. Opponents are KILLING LSU from three. After 23 games LSU is ranked 340 in % of opponents points coming from 3. Anything after 23 games is no longer simply just "luck". It's an issue. And it is maybe the biggest issue that is allowing opponents to keep pace with your own very high scoring offense. Teams aren't necessarily killing LSU in the paint. LSU is among the best in not fouling (maybe because they simply just aren't defending at all). So opponents aren't racking up points from the FT line.
At some point don't you have to say "I know what the general percentages say. But that hasn't applied to our team for whatever reason. So let's, perhaps, try something a bit different other than just hoping the %'s will eventually balance out...even though they haven't yet over the course of 23 games"?
Three point shooting is probably the most unreliable means of generating offense on a consistent basis. When you're hot it's very tough to stop (see Auburn's Final Four run last season). But teams who live and die by the three die more often than they live.
So yes, the analytics say forcing a lot of three pointers from your opponent is a good defensive strategy. But sometimes the analytics are "wrong" when it comes to your particular team. Opponents are KILLING LSU from three. After 23 games LSU is ranked 340 in % of opponents points coming from 3. Anything after 23 games is no longer simply just "luck". It's an issue. And it is maybe the biggest issue that is allowing opponents to keep pace with your own very high scoring offense. Teams aren't necessarily killing LSU in the paint. LSU is among the best in not fouling (maybe because they simply just aren't defending at all). So opponents aren't racking up points from the FT line.
At some point don't you have to say "I know what the general percentages say. But that hasn't applied to our team for whatever reason. So let's, perhaps, try something a bit different other than just hoping the %'s will eventually balance out...even though they haven't yet over the course of 23 games"?
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:35 pm to josh336
For a team that's so lousy on defense and stopping three's, has anyone noticed that we are still tied for first place in the conference with legendary Kentucky and vaunted Auburn? What does that say about all the teams below us and especially those we have beaten?
To say that we don't try to contest three's is just crazy. I would really love it if someone had good stats on how many three's are wide open and how many do have a hand in their face. I also believe that it is the emphasis we put on rebounding and having to do a lot of help defense on the interior because we have a 6'6" center that allows teams to get off so many three's. The majority of times this pays off for us and sometimes it doesn't.
We don't have the kind of team that can do everything to perfection. We have to pick and choose our poison and sometimes it is the wrong choice.
To say that we don't try to contest three's is just crazy. I would really love it if someone had good stats on how many three's are wide open and how many do have a hand in their face. I also believe that it is the emphasis we put on rebounding and having to do a lot of help defense on the interior because we have a 6'6" center that allows teams to get off so many three's. The majority of times this pays off for us and sometimes it doesn't.
We don't have the kind of team that can do everything to perfection. We have to pick and choose our poison and sometimes it is the wrong choice.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:37 pm to T
quote:
Its not a coincidence that every team lights us up from outside or has guards that easily drive to the goal. Even when they get to the goal we let the score or commit a touch foul.
I disagree with pretty much all of this except every team lights is up from outside. We’re great defending inside the arc and we’re one of the best at defending without fouling
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:37 pm to josh336
Sometimes I think Wade relies too much on analytics.
He dares them to shoot those 3's and all it takes is one person getting hot.
He dares them to shoot those 3's and all it takes is one person getting hot.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:37 pm to josh336
Our problem isn’t 3pt defense. Our problem is wanting too many 3’s on offense.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:38 pm to Tom Bronco
There have certainly been some wide open looks the last two games. And honestly, perimeter defense has been the most glaring issue since Wade started here. But I am still consistently baffled by how many contested 3s our opponents seem to drain.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:38 pm to TriedandTrue
quote:
Our problem isn’t 3pt defense. Our problem is wanting too many 3’s on offense.
Yeah, this is nonsense.
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 2/10/20 at 3:41 pm to pellietigersaint
quote:
When Taylor went under two ball screen under twice in the final 1:30 of the AU game to give up an uncontested 3, I lost my shite. Why not chase the ball into the paint. If those two 3's were two pt fg's, we win by (you guessed it), two points
But you don’t know that, Auburn plays differently.
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