re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?

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The initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt. Nate remains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. This combination should steer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so. After that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes around the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance remains in good agreement with the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreement on the speed. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, but slightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for the center of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northern Gulf Coast around the 36-h point. It should be noted that the ECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track. Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as a hurricane. The new intensity forecast, which is an update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Given the current developments, there is still a possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico. As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast of steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional strengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET forecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before landfall.

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I hate storms that come at night because you can't see what's going on.

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