Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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Euro is concerning, to say the least...



Still 10 days out, so take it with a grain of salt. Good news is it keeps the gulf low in the Bay of Campeche and appears to send it into Mexico at the end of the run.

ETA- 12z GFS run @ 240 hours:

I had an Aunt Irma. She was old, couldn't remember shite, and wore a red, curly wig. She died.

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I know a lot of people are tired of peej prediction meme

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is it really a meme if the opposite literally happens 90 percent of the time?

Not sold on much past 5-7 days.

As rds has said, the models are probably going to struggle with the dynamics over the contential US, and that's going to have a huge hand to determining the final tracks of both systems.

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"Irma" - classic old lady name. Scares me to death.

I'll use it in a sentence:

Irma shite myself if this storm gets into the gulf.

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Thanks to skysummit over at stormcastforums for the image.



You'll note the yellows up toward the Carolinas in the image. That's the trough expected to turn Irma back to the east. In this run, Irma misses the trough and keeps running more west. The caveat is there's a lot of uncertainty in the placement, strength, and timing of that trough.

You're a Wizard, PJ

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I have zero power on where a storm may go..... if it goes in a different direction than I think it might, that's a power way beyond me

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You said Harvey wasn't a threat to the US mainland, and it will go down as the costliest natural disaster in US history.

You said the BR flood would be a bust and all time records were shattered.

I'm not saying it's your fault, but it's concerning.