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Started By
Message
Posted on 8/31/17 at 12:00 am to rt3
I think the next Euro comes out in 30 min
Posted on 8/31/17 at 12:02 am to texag7
quote:
I think the next Euro comes out in 30 min
I can wait 30 minutes
Posted on 8/31/17 at 12:03 am to iliveinabox
quote:
Damn, hope the euro is wrong
yeah that Euro basically seemingly has it going up the whole Bahamas island chain
Posted on 8/31/17 at 12:52 am to rt3
looks like the new Euro is starting to run
Posted on 8/31/17 at 1:18 am to rt3
Euro is sticking to it's guns identical path, but way stronger.
This post was edited on 8/31/17 at 1:44 am
Posted on 8/31/17 at 1:37 am to GEAUXmedic
Also has the Gulf system way more north this run.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 1:44 am to lsuman25
right between Cuba & the Bahamas
Posted on 8/31/17 at 1:51 am to rt3
new Euro thinks potential landfall in Cuba
Posted on 8/31/17 at 1:57 am to GEAUXmedic
Is there anything stopping it?
Posted on 8/31/17 at 1:57 am to GEAUXmedic
That last frame on the Euro nope nope nope.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 1:58 am to GEAUXmedic
so this Euro basically runs Irma all the way through the length of Cuba
if that's the case... Cuba and all its mountains should rip it to shreds
if that's the case... Cuba and all its mountains should rip it to shreds
This post was edited on 8/31/17 at 1:59 am
Posted on 8/31/17 at 2:05 am to GEAUXmedic
This is very concerning, if you ignore the fact that it's still ten days away lol. Let's speak just on the run itself. That ridge in place almost guarantees a run anywhere from MS to TX. If it did in fact go over the mountains it would get shredded, but we can't count on that happening. Focus on steering patterns this far out, that's the main takeaway here. Let's see how consistent the euro is with that ridge.
Posted on 8/31/17 at 3:59 am to Walt OReilly
Looks like it's getting an eye.
This post was edited on 8/31/17 at 4:00 am
Posted on 8/31/17 at 4:18 am to GEAUXmedic
Almost a hurricane
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
...IRMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 32.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 32.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion is expected today and tonight, followed by a generally
westward motion on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Irma is likely to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
Discussion
Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
Irma continues to become better organized with a developing CDO and
a few banding features. The overall cloud pattern is fairly
symmetric, with fair upper-level outflow over all but the
southeastern portion of the circulation. The current intensity
is set at 60 kt, which is the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The environment ahead of Irma appears to be mostly
conducive for intensification, with increasingly warm SSTs.
Vertical shear is expected to remain low as an upper-level trough
to the west-northwest of the tropical cyclone lifts out to the
north and west. The only noticeable inhibiting factor is slightly
drier mid-level air in 2-5 days, but this will probably not be much
of a deterrent for strengthening. The official intensity forecast
follows the latest consensus of the models, and is similar to the
previous NHC prediction.
Based on geostationary satellite fixes, the initial motion is just
slightly north of west or 280/10 kt. Most of the track guidance
shows a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so. Irma
will remain situated to the south of a well-defined
mid-tropospheric ridge through the forecast period. Much of the
guidance indicates that Irma will turn toward a slightly south of
westward heading in a couple of days, presumably in response to some
building of high pressure to the north and northwest. The official
track forecast also shows this, and remains on the southern side of
the guidance suite. This is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 16.5N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 17.0N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 17.6N 36.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.2N 40.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.5N 45.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 16.7N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 16.0N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
...IRMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 32.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 32.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion is expected today and tonight, followed by a generally
westward motion on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Irma is likely to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
Discussion
Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017
Irma continues to become better organized with a developing CDO and
a few banding features. The overall cloud pattern is fairly
symmetric, with fair upper-level outflow over all but the
southeastern portion of the circulation. The current intensity
is set at 60 kt, which is the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB. The environment ahead of Irma appears to be mostly
conducive for intensification, with increasingly warm SSTs.
Vertical shear is expected to remain low as an upper-level trough
to the west-northwest of the tropical cyclone lifts out to the
north and west. The only noticeable inhibiting factor is slightly
drier mid-level air in 2-5 days, but this will probably not be much
of a deterrent for strengthening. The official intensity forecast
follows the latest consensus of the models, and is similar to the
previous NHC prediction.
Based on geostationary satellite fixes, the initial motion is just
slightly north of west or 280/10 kt. Most of the track guidance
shows a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so. Irma
will remain situated to the south of a well-defined
mid-tropospheric ridge through the forecast period. Much of the
guidance indicates that Irma will turn toward a slightly south of
westward heading in a couple of days, presumably in response to some
building of high pressure to the north and northwest. The official
track forecast also shows this, and remains on the southern side of
the guidance suite. This is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 16.5N 32.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 17.0N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 17.6N 36.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.0N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.2N 40.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 17.5N 45.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 16.7N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 16.0N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
Posted on 8/31/17 at 5:25 am to GEAUXmedic
Yeah she will be a hurricane sometime today! Dat bitch
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