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Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 8/30/17 at 5:33 pm to Pedro
Posted on 8/30/17 at 5:33 pm to Pedro
Tropical cyclones that form north of 15 degrees North and East of 35 degrees west do have a tendency to gain latitude and curve out to sea. What is interesting is that Irma is gaining strength quickly which would add to the Beta Effect and help it gain latitude.
Beyond 72 hours, I would not bet on any destination that this storm will take. Most models cannot handle upper level shortwaves and troughs accurately beyond 120 hours. Too many variables in play and the precision and timing of fronts and upper level features over the eastern pacific and north America cannot be accurately predicted at a 8-10 day forecast.
Beyond 72 hours, I would not bet on any destination that this storm will take. Most models cannot handle upper level shortwaves and troughs accurately beyond 120 hours. Too many variables in play and the precision and timing of fronts and upper level features over the eastern pacific and north America cannot be accurately predicted at a 8-10 day forecast.
1
Posted on 8/30/17 at 5:37 pm to slackster
quote:
Irma has her act together.
That is NOT good...........
Posted on 8/30/17 at 5:53 pm to rds dc
18z GFS @ 240 hours
897mb would be the 5th strongest Atlantic storm on record. I don't expect a ton of accuracy this far out, but it is safe to say the models think conditions are favorable for development.
897mb would be the 5th strongest Atlantic storm on record. I don't expect a ton of accuracy this far out, but it is safe to say the models think conditions are favorable for development.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 6:11 pm to slackster
Incidental image of the one off Carolina has it hitting ireland hard.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 6:47 pm to heatom2
quote:Yes. And for the record they call it 'recurve'. But you are spot on. The position of the storm and climatology strongly suggest that Irma will recurve harmlessly out to sea.
I know nothing is certain, but don't storms that form in this area typically curl north
Posted on 8/30/17 at 7:03 pm to otowntiger
quote:
Yes. And for the record they call it 'recurve'. But you are spot on. The position of the storm and climatology strongly suggest that Irma will recurve harmlessly out to sea.
Where did Andrew form and what was the track?
Posted on 8/30/17 at 7:08 pm to jlc05
quote:
Where did Andrew form and what was the track?
Posted on 8/30/17 at 7:21 pm to rt3
Damn that track changed drastically. Unless it turns straight north that's headed into the Caribbean. Would that make it likely to hit Mexico/Central America or would it be more likely to turn into the gulf?
Posted on 8/30/17 at 7:21 pm to deltaland
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/30/17 at 7:22 pm
Posted on 8/30/17 at 7:27 pm to slackster
It appears the eastern part of the country will have a hell of a cold front that will hopefully keep Irma out of the gulf. I see 54 degrees on the 234 hr near Baton Rouge. Temps running about 15 below average for this whole side of the country.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 7:30 pm to TaderSalad
quote:
We need a cold front...
I see one coming Monday/Tuesday for here which will affect the low coming off of Mexico but likely be too soon to affect Irma's path.
Based on the maps posted, I would think Irma goes south Caribbean she stays there and goes west and the gulf is closed off by the high pressure sitting over Mexico. But if she goes toward Cuba and south of Florida and misses Tuesday's low trough the Bermuda Atlantic high pressure wall and high pressure wall over Mexico could then channel her to the center of the gulf.
Just my opinion from limited knowledge of these things so take it with a grain of salt
Posted on 8/30/17 at 7:35 pm to deltaland
quote:
We need a cold front...
around these parts theyre starting to talk up Jose, and its race with the cold front to see which one makes to the coast first
Posted on 8/30/17 at 7:38 pm to OchoDedos
Last graphic I saw had it heading toward Houston and soon as it hit the coast going straight east along the coast. Which would suck
Posted on 8/30/17 at 9:54 pm to MottLaneKid
10 PM 8/30 update
Posted on 8/30/17 at 9:57 pm to rt3
Ouch. No bueno thus far.
This post was edited on 8/30/17 at 9:58 pm
Posted on 8/30/17 at 9:59 pm to RazorBroncs
She's about 9 - 10 mph off from a hurricane as of the latest advisory. And still far out at sea.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 10:00 pm to rt3
quote:Yikes. Setting the Gulf Coast up for a Katrina/Rita combo like 2005. Irma can EAD
10 PM 8/30 update
Posted on 8/30/17 at 10:04 pm to FCP
quote:
Yikes. Setting the Gulf Coast up for a Katrina/Rita combo like 2005. Irma can EAD
Still a long way from that, although I agree with your last sentiment.
Posted on 8/30/17 at 10:05 pm to FCP
quote:
Yikes. Setting the Gulf Coast up for a Katrina/Rita combo like 2005. Irma can EAD
I would start really getting concerned if it gets into the Caribbean and hasn't started turning out to sea yet
Posted on 8/30/17 at 10:06 pm to rt3
Which day should it be in the Caribbean?
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