re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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so you're saying there are complex pattern that will steer this storm?

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Yeah, that's what it looks like early yet.

Questions of how a west pacific storm cutting north will impact the expected trough expected to dig into the nation's mid section later in the weekend and into next week. Furthermore how that feature will impact the big dome of high pressure sitting over the north central Atlantic. Leaving a large potential spread of potential results.

If the trough does miss both post-harvey blob in the BOC and Irma, what is left to steer both of them isn't apparent and will likely be weak. I hope to avoid the nightmare of another meandering hurricane entering the gulf.

Furthermore how deep (strong) Irma is will also influence how much of that trough it feels. Stronger and it has a better chance of finding the weakness it will create on the west side of that high.

That's just the broad strokes too. Right now, it's too complicated and questionable to say much other than Irma will be cutting the islands a little close for their comfort.

The models historically don't perform terribly well with this sort of set up, as rds mentioned in the previous thread.

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The models are going to struggle with 93L. Wave breaking across the North Atlantic is going to spin off some ULLs, not to different than what we saw during 92Ls trip across the Atlantic. Then there is a massive WPAC system that is going to pump a ton of energy into the high latitudes and that always gives the models fits. As that energy is distributed to the downstream waves it will determine the large scale setup across America and the Atlantic as 93L approaches. Stronger Eastern trough and weaker Atlantic ridge closes doors to the Gulf. The reverse certainly causes concern.

Another issue, the outflow from any potential Gulf system could play a role. So, take any model solutions or speculation on what might happen based on model runs with a grain of salt.

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i was just about to type all this same thought just like that.

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That's the trough expected to turn Irma back to the east

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Based on that map I'm not seeing it turning it east. But I'm no expert either. Looks like Irma will be too far south and would have minimal effect.

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5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 30
Location: 16.4°N 31.2°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

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Euro suggests Irma will miss an early front, GFS has it being caught by that front. We'll see as we go.

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Come on GFS

I just watched a video from Mark with Hurricane track and, if I've been understanding him correct lately, he says this season is looking like a La Nina which is supposedly good for storm formation. He also said we can expect a late, active season. Does that sound right? We got very lucky in 2005 that none of those major storms hit the same place. I can't imagine what a double dip would do. New Orleans probably wouldn't survive at TS at this point. We're saturated as can be.

Irma has her act together.

yeah... I think the last advisory said they expect it to be a hurricane tomorrow...

looking at that... I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's a hurricane now