re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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Which day should it be in the Caribbean?

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Like 6, maybe 7 days from now. If she stays on the current trajectory.

This is starting to feel like an '04-'05 run

Latest projection has it as a major hurricane by Sunday night.

I can't remember that last time I've seen a major hurricane that far out

Look at all the moisture on that map. Damn.

Unfortunately this season is very reminiscent of 2004

have Hurricane Hunters started going into Irma yet?

know it's a very long flight... was just curious b/c I haven't seen any of their data yet

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either a high pressure system in the Atlantic to pull it around or a cold front coming across the States push it out

if I understand correctly

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Sort of. High pressure pretty much determines everything. A weakness in the high pressure area, a trough, creates a gap, and a tropical system will follow the clockwise rotation around the high pressure causing it to recurve most of the time.

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Here are the top three things that steer hurricanes into or out of our backyards, according to Hugh Willoughby, a Florida International University professor and former head of the federal government's hurricane research program.

The windy, spinning Earth: Usually 80 to 90 percent of a hurricane's motion is due to the winds around the storm. When winds are eerily calm, the rest of the movement is due to the Coriolis effect, which refers to the curved paths weather systems tend to follow because of the Earth's rotation. Because of this effect, hurricanes tend to drift to the northwest in the Northern Hemisphere, and to the southwest in the Southern Hemisphere.

Under pressure: With the wind around storms, it's all about high and low pressure. High pressure in the atmosphere is like a brick wall, where storms have a hard time breaking through, so they tend to go around or along the ege of high pressure systems. Usually in the summer, high pressure builds over Bermuda and extends toward or even into the coast of the United States. Storms can't go through, so they go around. If the Bermuda High is big and strong, storms often can't go around and then north — like Tropical Storm Danielle did and Hurricane Earl is likely to do — so they head south and west. That's when Florida and the Caribbean better watch out.

Gutter ball: But if there is a weakness or some low pressure within the high pressure area — something called a trough — then the storm follows that path like a bowling ball in the gutter. There's often a weak trough just east of the East Coast, which guides storms away and out to sea.

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Those spaghettis make it look like it won't even be a threat to the gulf and maybe just New England

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yeah... but as you know... you just never know until the storm does what it does

just ask... well... nevermind

00z GFS has it being pulled away into the North Atlantic as a strong Cat 5 the 2nd week of September.