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re: Oil stocks...are you buying?

Posted on 4/19/16 at 3:24 pm to
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10246 posts
Posted on 4/19/16 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

oh man. I know people who lost their arse with that stock.


Some luck and some prayer helped me through my younger years when I was much more aggressive.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10246 posts
Posted on 4/19/16 at 6:11 pm to
I'm not sure who to reply to, but I thought a gentleman was asking about opportunity in exported LNG in this thread. I ran across this, and maybe you find this of some use.

LINK
Posted by LSUGUMBO
Shreveport, LA
Member since Sep 2005
8583 posts
Posted on 4/19/16 at 7:49 pm to
Someone started another thread re: LNG vs LNGLF vs LNGLY. I'll post in that thread, too. Thanks IG
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10246 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

I think we're within $5ish of the bottom. Just not sure if, or how long it stays sideways. I had thought the two inventory reports actually had some hints of bullish information.


Page 17. Three down votes. I could still be very, very wrong, but I'm going to post this again, so whether right or wrong, it's on the record again.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10246 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

I think we're within $5ish of the bottom. Just not sure if, or how long it stays sideways. I had thought the two inventory reports actually had some hints of bullish information.


Page 17. Three down votes. I could still be very, very wrong, but I'm going to post this again, so whether right or wrong, it's on the record again.

Edit. I believe WTI was around $30, and I had thought, and still think, it wouldn't/won't get lower than $25.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10246 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

quote: But you still stand to make a good chunk or you wouldn't be doing it...? Maybe. There's a lot I need to talk over, maybe buy 2017 oil for $41, or 2018 oil at $45 or $46. All I'm doing is placing a bet that oil between when buy and expiration breaches the strike price. Actually a lot of times it doesn't need to breach the price, it just needs to get close, or start making a movement to getting close. Margin calls prevent a lot of people from going this far out. Other reasons as well, the premium being one large reason. Others will bet maybe $45 oil at the end of 2017 and get stopped out. I don't have most of that to worry about.


I bought the 2017 contracts (no margin) at $41.00, or $41K each. There right under $48K per contract now.

I also bought some further out contracts, and laddered up call options on the contracts as far out as I could. This is mostly all unwound now.

I probably left money on the table, but a little profit is always better than holding too long and sing my rear.

Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10275 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 4:24 pm to
I know KMI is a board favorite, at least has been in the past.

They reported a pretty big miss AH.

Personally I think the oil and gas valuations have gotta a little rich too fast. I'm very long VGENX and will continue to buy, but I don't think I'd be a buyer of individuals right now. I think there will be better opportunities to come.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2475 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 4:50 pm to
SXE has been charging back since their parent restructured.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55670 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 5:05 pm to
So you think the bump is temporary and it will dip again?
Posted by HailFacer
Belton, TX
Member since Mar 2016
76 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 5:07 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/20/16 at 6:04 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10246 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 5:51 pm to
I don't know Sarge. When I posted the original posts quoted above, all I knew, or all I thought I knew, was that the time was correct for me to make a play on oil. For me.

I did. I won. Maybe I could have won bigger if I waited longer to close it out. I don't know. I do know I made a profit, and that there isn't much sense in worrying about it now if it keeps going up from here.

But I am me, and if it keeps going up, I will be pissed I didn't hold out longer.

What branch of hte service Sarge?
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55670 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 5:59 pm to
1. I would never visit a dirty forum

2. ISWYDT, at least I think I do

Message sent
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
55670 posts
Posted on 4/20/16 at 6:03 pm to
Old Sarge is Texas A&M's mascot. Or used to be, not used much these days and Reveille does a fine job.

I never had the honor of serving our country. Wish I had though.

Posted by LSUEEAlum
Member since Oct 2013
803 posts
Posted on 4/27/16 at 7:33 pm to
So ya'll talked me into buying into COP and MRO a little over 3 months ago. I bought in for $10k on my robinhood app on January 19th. I was going for a long term investment. I was just going to set it there and forget about it as I didn't need the money right now. Well close of today my $10k now looks like $16,250. Should I cash out? Or stick with my original plan and go long term? Didn't think it would go up that much in such a short amount of time.
Posted by Fat Bastard
coach, investor, gambler
Member since Mar 2009
73692 posts
Posted on 4/27/16 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

Well close of today my $10k now looks like $16,250. Should I cash out? Or stick with my original plan and go long term? Didn't think it would go up that much in such a short amount of time.



Why not just set up trailing stops?? I'd ride it up as far as it will take you before getting stopped out. I'm holding long term so no stops set for me as of now. But if you want to make sure you hold the majority of your gains go read the charts and see where the support points are as it has been trending up slowly.
Posted by b-rab2
N. Louisiana
Member since Dec 2005
12581 posts
Posted on 4/27/16 at 7:42 pm to
Sell sell sell!! Or you could just take some profits.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
19226 posts
Posted on 4/27/16 at 8:36 pm to
quote:

MRO
You're welcome. My broke arse bought just 32 shares at $14.77. Just broke even after six months today

I was salivating when it hit $6.98
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80843 posts
Posted on 4/27/16 at 9:01 pm to
Take some profits if you need the money. If not, like Fat Bastard said, set up a stop loss for a portion of your total. I'd set one up for 10% below what todays price is for 1/3 of your shares. I don't see oil screaming lower again so you may be able to ride the price up a bit more
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19666 posts
Posted on 4/28/16 at 4:28 am to
Yea I screwed myself waiting on another drop, I dont see it happening now, at least not a big one. I dumped what I was holding the past couple of days into some of the ones I have been watching. Have kept a small reserve just in case I get lucky with another big drop.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10246 posts
Posted on 4/28/16 at 7:30 am to
Looks like the forward curve for Brent is $50 is over a year.

My point is not whether brent will be at $50 in June of 17, but that producers making money at $30 can sell June 17 oil for $50. There is room to hedge so they can lock in an acceptable loss, or some sort of profit, depending on how they hedge.

There's been increased activity out months, institutional per the last COT.

I sold my contract too quickly, but a gain is a gain. And better a gain, than to be greedy and get my head taken off.

No huge deal for my CVX holding, but significant for my risky ERN holling. ERN has a pre=pay they might be advised to negotiate. They need to somehow get pre payed for future delivery at futures prices. Or hedge it better if they're not already doing this.
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