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Started By
Message
Why would China not be able to take down Taiwan easily?
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:13 pm
I’m woefully ignorant of the dynamics involved, but if someone wants to share, I’d love to hear why.
Just looking at it with no knowledge I would think China could take Taiwan fairly easily. I’m sure China has plenary of spies already in Taiwan, they are way larger in population and technology (I think), they are trying to rival us as the supreme superpower…
So why am I not to think China wouldn’t make light work Taiwan
Just looking at it with no knowledge I would think China could take Taiwan fairly easily. I’m sure China has plenary of spies already in Taiwan, they are way larger in population and technology (I think), they are trying to rival us as the supreme superpower…
So why am I not to think China wouldn’t make light work Taiwan
52
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:17 pm to WKUHilltopper
quote:
Why would China not be able to take down Taiwan easily?
The belief was that Russia would take down Ukraine.
Wars are hard to win decisively...
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:20 pm to WKUHilltopper
The risk of pulling the US into a conflict with them is too much of a risk for a number of reasons. They are making inroads with Europe right now and if they attached Taiwan, that would likely cease any progress they’ve made. They would effectively isolate themselves for at least a decade or more.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:22 pm to WKUHilltopper
They would take Taiwan easily like we did to Venezuela. They've been planning for this since ww2. Dey ready
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:25 pm to WKUHilltopper
Because Taiwan and shoot some ballistic missles into the 3 Gorges Dam which would totally F China
This post was edited on 3/15/26 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:27 pm to WKUHilltopper
Mostly because the Taiwan Straignt is 100 miles wide. And there are very few beaches. Tall mountains overlook the approach with endless places to hide teams with shoulder launched missiles that would take out helicopters and landing craft.
How are they supposed to get their army across? What about the millions of tons of supplies they will need every month?
They would have to gain total control of the air and the sea to even have a prayer. And any invasion force would take months to assemble. And it would have to be assembled along the most heavily populated coastline in the world.
Like 300,000 men and thousands of landing craft and vehicles loading up along the commercial waterfront along 100 miles of major Chinrse cities. The assembly points would be vulnerable to preemptive strikes for .months.
It seems way easier to take it political manipulation than overt military action
How are they supposed to get their army across? What about the millions of tons of supplies they will need every month?
They would have to gain total control of the air and the sea to even have a prayer. And any invasion force would take months to assemble. And it would have to be assembled along the most heavily populated coastline in the world.
Like 300,000 men and thousands of landing craft and vehicles loading up along the commercial waterfront along 100 miles of major Chinrse cities. The assembly points would be vulnerable to preemptive strikes for .months.
It seems way easier to take it political manipulation than overt military action
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:27 pm to WKUHilltopper
Taiwan has purchased top of the line American made air force.
There is a 90 miles of water separating them.
Taiwan will be sinking a lot of Chinese ships along that 90 miles of water.
There likely would be a world response against China. There would be at least a regional one.
Japan has advanced air force. Korea likely would get involved. And honestly the united states has a carrier task force out there.
That is a lot of stuff trying to sink your invasion force.
If China shoots their load and fails, Xi would likely be killed. China goes back 20 years and is blacklisted by the world.
Risk reward ratio heavily states they won't. They would need to send every plane, so and a large amount of trips plus a tremendous amount of equipment to the staging area in China.
We have not seen that happening. China can't simply invade Taiwan. They need to stage for the attack.
They haven't moved any equipment of substance that I have heard about so no invasion is coming.
Their plan is thought may have been 2028 but after the way united states destroyed the best weapons China have iran, I think they are rethinking their plans.
There is a 90 miles of water separating them.
Taiwan will be sinking a lot of Chinese ships along that 90 miles of water.
There likely would be a world response against China. There would be at least a regional one.
Japan has advanced air force. Korea likely would get involved. And honestly the united states has a carrier task force out there.
That is a lot of stuff trying to sink your invasion force.
If China shoots their load and fails, Xi would likely be killed. China goes back 20 years and is blacklisted by the world.
Risk reward ratio heavily states they won't. They would need to send every plane, so and a large amount of trips plus a tremendous amount of equipment to the staging area in China.
We have not seen that happening. China can't simply invade Taiwan. They need to stage for the attack.
They haven't moved any equipment of substance that I have heard about so no invasion is coming.
Their plan is thought may have been 2028 but after the way united states destroyed the best weapons China have iran, I think they are rethinking their plans.
This post was edited on 3/15/26 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:29 pm to WKUHilltopper
Being that Taiwan is 100 miles off of the Chinese mainland, an all out amphibious assault large enough to actually take an island that large with a mountanous interior and dense population cities would be extremely difficult to accomplish. Not to mention, Taiwan has a pretty large and well-armed military of their own.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:37 pm to WKUHilltopper
quote:
I’m woefully ignorant of the dynamics involved
Yep.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:38 pm to WKUHilltopper
quote:
So why am I not to think China wouldn’t make light work Taiwan
Because:
USA
Japan
Australia
Philippines
S. Korea
That’s why.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:39 pm to thetempleowl
quote:
Their plan is thought may have been 2028 but after the way united states destroyed the best weapons China have iran, I think they are rethinking their plans.
In 2 weeks of the Iran war, the Chinese have now been set back at least 10-15 years.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:42 pm to WKUHilltopper
quote:
Why would China not be able to take down Taiwan easily?
China's amphibious warfare capabilities are lacking at best and they have no troops with any real combat experience
It's not just Taiwan, but a ton of small islands Taiwan has along the way that could and would missile and bombard everything that must be taken out before any invasion force even gets on the boats
Once they finally reach Taiwan (~100 miles) and start offloading troops, they encounter urban areas and mountains, the types of areas invaders typically like to avoid and just encircle
Each subsequent wave of their invasion will carry less and less troops and more and more supplies for the troops already ashore, this lifeline must be maintained or the troops ashore will run out of everything from freshwater and batteries to fuel and ammunition
In taking Taiwan, China would destroy the industry that is present on the island
If China could take Taiwan easily they would
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:49 pm to TheBeezer
quote:
Not to mention, Taiwan has a pretty large and well-armed military of their own.
As do the other middle powers in the region. Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and even Vietnam all have reasons to oppose Chinese hegemony in South East Asia. These nations can partner with India to achieve that goal.
This post was edited on 3/15/26 at 5:50 pm
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:50 pm to WKUHilltopper
Lol log on start a thread.
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Ask a question
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Interesting
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:54 pm to WKUHilltopper
Posted on 3/15/26 at 5:55 pm to IMSA_Fan
No one is going to cause a mass casualty event like that because they know they will get nuked in response
Posted on 3/15/26 at 6:25 pm to WKUHilltopper
quote:
I’m woefully ignorant of the dynamics involved, but if someone wants to share, I’d love to hear why.
Just looking at it with no knowledge I would think China could take Taiwan fairly easily. I’m sure China has plenary of spies already in Taiwan, they are way larger in population and technology (I think), they are trying to rival us as the supreme superpower…
So why am I not to think China wouldn’t make light work Taiwan
You're absolutely right. The Chinese leadership are idiots who have not considered the advantages you mentioned. You should fly over there and demand an audience with XJ.
Posted on 3/15/26 at 6:40 pm to WKUHilltopper
The only way China could take Taiwan is to blow the island out of the ocean.
Logistically speaking, there is almost nowhere to land ships. Sort of the same headache as countries like Afghanistan with difficult terrain except they have to cross water and easily defended.
China could do it but the lives costs would be huge.
Logistically speaking, there is almost nowhere to land ships. Sort of the same headache as countries like Afghanistan with difficult terrain except they have to cross water and easily defended.
China could do it but the lives costs would be huge.
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