Goldman Sachs says U.S. consumers stuck with higher prices even after SCOTUS tariff ruling

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The Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Donald Trump’s tariffs has created a $180 billion opportunity for U.S. companies to recoup the cost of import taxes through potential refunds. For American consumers, however, the chances of seeing relief are slim.

Goldman Sachs economists warned that while tariff-related inflation has likely peaked, prices are unlikely to meaningfully fall anytime soon. Tariffs added a 0.7% increase in inflation over 10 months, and levies are expected to add another 0.1% in 2026, analysts wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

“We would not expect companies to lower prices in response to tariff reductions nearly as quickly as they increased them in response to tariff increases,” analysts Alec Phillips, Elsie Peng, and David Mericle wrote.

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Trump responded to the Supreme Court ruling by imposing a 10%, then 15%, global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. The section outlines the ability to impose a temporary, 150-day import tax to address “large and serious” deficits or currency depreciation, though some experts warn this path to impose levies is also legally dubious. The Trump administration has also invoked Section 301, which is used to impose retaliatory tariffs on foreign countries engaging in “discriminatory” trade practices.

Analysts predicted that the new 15% tariffs would alter tax rates for some trading partners, but would only modestly reduce overall tariff rates from above 10% in 2025 to 9% in 2026. Still, a Morgan Stanley note published on Monday said Trump has likely already hit peak tariffs, with rates unlikely to top 15%.

“The policy changes were in line with our expectations,” Goldman Sachs economists said. “And our estimates of the effects of tariffs on inflation and growth are consequently little changed.”

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Companies have already passed the majority of the tariff impacts on to consumers, according to analysts, meaning prices are unlikely to drastically increase anytime soon. However, the cost of goods are also unlikely to be reduced substantially or quickly as companies continue to navigate trade uncertainty and maintain margins.

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Even if companies were to receive refunds, UBS chief economist Paul Donovan said he wouldn’t bet on those funds reaching consumers, owing to fears of refunds heaping pressure on an already mounting debt crisis.

“Tariff rebates will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit, and act as a fiscal stimulus,” Donovan said in a note published on Monday. “Any rebates will be paid to U.S. importers (as they are the ones who made payments to the U.S. Treasury). With new tariffs coming in, it seems unlikely anyone will rush to lower prices to their customers.”

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