The White House's Tariffs have Ruined Black Friday

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NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Unprecedented numbers of Americans are expected to hit stores this Black Friday, but they are likely to curtail their spending as they find fewer bargains from tariff-hit retailers.

Marking the biggest turnout ever for the five-day stretch between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, 186.9 million people will shop, up from 183.4 million last year, the National Retail Federation projects. But sales growth for the last two months of the year, crucial for retailers, is expected to slow.

"Everything seems to be way more expensive" at malls, said Kate Sanner, a New Yorker who runs an online aggregator for second-hand listings. Last year, Sanner, 33, spent around $500 on gifts, but this season she plans to trim her budget to $300, eschewing most Black Friday discounts for targeted deals on specific products.

Thanksgiving falls on November 27 this year, giving retailers an extra day in the holiday window, which typically accounts for a third of annual profits.

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Sales in November and December - in physical stores and online – are forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time, rising between 3.7% and 4.2%, but are likely to grow at a slower pace than last year's 4.8% gain, NRF projections show.

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"Knowing that our healthcare premium bill is going to jump astronomically in 2026 ... all of our discretionary spending has dropped significantly," said Liz Sweeney, founder of marketing agency Dogwood Solutions, who lives in Boise, Idaho.

"While we spent close to $2,000 on gifts in 2024, our 2025 budget is $750," said 52-year-old Sweeney, who is skipping electronics and big buys this year, sticking to shoes, books and kitchenware.

Shoppers still have plenty in the bank, with households across all income levels holding more deposits than they did in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, November data from Bank of America data shows. Consumers were also not using a significant portion of their savings, the data showed.

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While some retailers appear to be pulling back on promotions, Walmart is teasing some aggressive price cuts for Black Friday.

Some of Walmart's featured deals include an 85-inch TCL Roku TV, originally priced at $678, marked down to $498 for Black Friday, according to a Reuters review of the retailer’s website. Last year, Walmart highlighted a $120 discount on a 75-inch Vizio TV. This year's lineup also features a Blackstone outdoor grill offered at $157, reduced from its list price of $224.

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