Kelly says analytics says to go for it on fourth down. But which analytics?

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If you stick to LSU only analytics we are terrible on short yardage fourth down conversions in the red zone (at least in my memory of when we have tried that).

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This team has played a single game together. We have almost an entirely new offensive line.

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So, how in depth/accurate are these analytics? Are they based on LSU results only?

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analytics don't look at any team specifically.

they remove any people (specific personnel, coach, etc.) from the equation and turn everything into pure math and numbers.

what's the current score, down & distance, time on clock, timeouts remaining, etc.


the best coaches are the ones who can balance the analytics vs the "in game" choices.
analytics are all done in advance, so they don't take into equation the flow of that current game and things like that.

Instead of trying to get the first, just throw a jump ball for Green.

His response was a stark contrast to the press conference from Jay Johnson talking about the lineup construction during the postseason last year. Those two guys are not in the same ballpark

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This really was the perfect game for our fanbase

We get a win on the road at a Top Five team, a coaching decision we can all attack, and a controversial replay call we can scream about.

What more can you ask for?

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Well we didn't fire Kelly on Sunday morning and hire Saban Sunday night.

Im sure he is referring to typical 4th and 2 situations where analytics encourage going for it. Problem is he forgot to account for time left. If he had, he wouldve kicked the field goal. He admitted this yesterday in his press conference.

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If that is the case, then the numbers aren’t worth much. Analytics needs to take into account your team’s strengths and weaknesses.

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No, that’s head coach’s job. The analytics are there to balance out human emotion, subjectivity and bias. It’s a good tool to help keep you from being too conservative, but also knowing when it’s not advisable to go for it by the numbers alone (like at your own 30 like FSU did vs Bama).

For example, Kelly said they punted when the analytics recommended going for it in the 2nd half due to the position on the field. However, he deemed it better to play field position with the lead and the way the defense was playing. It was a good decision. And looking back, he admitted passing on the FG before half was a mistake.

But again, it’s the staff’s job to balance the numbers. They need to be the ones to factor in the current score, way the game is going, weather, etc. We should never be too far one way or the other.

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I saw a whole lot more going for it on 4th down this weekend than in the past. All coaches are moving towards the more analytical approach, not just LSU.

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This began a while ago, you are just seeing more and more coaches accept this and utilize it. I normally am ok with going for the 7...but in our case, with no points and kicking off the second I sure didnt want our first possession to potentially be two scores down.

Fans love analytic decisions when they work but hate them when they don’t, which isn’t how decisions work.