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re: Theory About Expectations vs Reality
Posted on 10/6/23 at 12:04 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
Posted on 10/6/23 at 12:04 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
Florida are suffering over an extended period to be consistent.
Just funny to me that they fired Mullen. He may have had a bad 4th season but the dude went to three straight NY6 bowls before that. Winning two.
1
Posted on 10/6/23 at 12:08 pm to GeauxHouston
Dude 100%. Mullen could have been a nightmare for us at Florida.
I’ve heard he “lost the locker room”
I’ve heard he “lost the locker room”
Posted on 10/6/23 at 12:41 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
Excellent points. What BK did with what he has has been amazing, and will get better as he gets better recruiting classes to build on.
Posted on 10/6/23 at 12:47 pm to Havoc
quote:
some folks wanting the moon and stars immediately.
Give me slight improvements each year for 4-5 years to build a 10-15 year dynasty over the highs and lows of 2019-2021
Posted on 10/6/23 at 12:48 pm to horsesandbulls
We won 10 games last year. How’s it an improvement if we win less this year?
Posted on 10/6/23 at 1:00 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
Well said. Kirby at Georgia is a great current example. 7-5 his first year, one play away from winning an NC in year two, then they loss 2-3 games the next three seasons to essentially the best teams on their schedule, three close losses to Bama. Talk was that Georgia just can't get it done, all the while Kirby was building an absolute monster roster. Year 7 now the talk is that this team has taken a bit of a step back, yet no one doubts they will be undefeated until at least the SEC title game. That's what a solid foundation can get you after years of program building.
Posted on 10/6/23 at 1:21 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
Comparing BK to Saban isn’t a fair comparison. Saban was already a national championship coach when he arrived in Tuscaloosa. BK hasn’t won shite. Also when Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa he had been well over a decade since they had won a NC… i can’t say for sure but I think the last one pre Saban was 1992 or something. BK took over a program that’s only a couple years removed. But but he only had 38 players….. but but we beat Alabama last year. Nobody gives a shite. When you make more money a year than most male in a career you best have it figured out.
Posted on 10/6/23 at 1:43 pm to LSUTitan99
quote:
We won 10 games last year. How’s it an improvement if we win less this year?
quote:
LSUTitan99
I’ve seen a few posts from you about how the expectation at LSU should be “winning 10 games.”
I think some historical context helps. In one of those posts you talked about 10+ wins being what “Saban and Miles built.”
In reality, Saban and Miles had plenty of seasons where we finished with less than 10 wins. The exact numbers depend on whether you include postseason or not.
If we include postseason play, then over the Saban/Miles era we had:
- 9 seasons (53%) with 10 or more wins
- 8 seasons (47%) with 9 or less wins
If we only look at regular season, the numbers change to:
- 7 seasons (41%) with 10 or more wins
- 10 seasons (59%) with 9 or less wins
Another way of looking at it - we went 5-3 or worse in SEC play 9 of those 17 seasons (53% of the time).
“But wait,” you say, “you’re including Saban’s early years and Miles’ late years before he was fired!” Well.. yeah. For starters, Kelly took over a 5-6 football team (not as bad in paper as what Saban took over, but still bad).
But OK, let’s look at the golden years. 2003-2011 is the most successful 9-year period in LSU football history - certainly in my lifetime at minimum - with 3 national championship appearances and 2 titles. During that stretch we still finished with <10 wins 3 out of 9 seasons (33% of the time).
Again, that is cherry-picking the most successful run in school history, bookended by a national title win and another title appearance.
I’m not saying LSU fans should avoid high expectations. I’m also not saying we should “accept mediocrity” as so many folks like to put it. We certainly shouldn’t accept the kind of defensive performance we saw last week.
What I am saying is that the “10 wins is the floor” folks are being at least a little silly. Any coach we hire who sustains that level of success every year would be the greatest coach in LSU history (assuming they get a natty or two out of it, which seems likely at that point). And if people don’t actually expect their coach to win a minimum of 10 games every year, they should probably not say shite like “10 wins is the expectation.”
Posted on 10/6/23 at 2:16 pm to armytiger33
quote:
Comparing BK to Saban isn’t a fair comparison. Saban was already a national championship coach when he arrived in Tuscaloosa. BK hasn’t won shite. Also when Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa he had been well over a decade since they had won a NC… i can’t say for sure but I think the last one pre Saban was 1992 or something. BK took over a program that’s only a couple years removed. But but he only had 38 players….. but but we beat Alabama last year. Nobody gives a shite. When you make more money a year than most male in a career you best have it figured out.
I am not sure what you point is in this post? I assume the last sentence is what you really wanted to state which is that we pay BK top dollar so we expect top results.
I don't disagree with that but you can't expect everything to be done over night. I agree that the defense should never be as bad as it has been this year no matter the circumstances but to expect BK to take over a program with 39 scholarship players and have them competing for Nattys in 2 years is just not realistic.
Here are the positives: The offense is WAY ahead of schedule and look like it can be sustained for at least the near future.
1) We have a good (possibly great) backup QB that will start for hopefully 2 years and if he only starts for one year then it probably means we at least made the playoffs.
2) We have a STUD OL and the majority of it comes back next year.
3) We have 2 stud RBs that will still be here next year in Diggs and Jackson.
4) WR will take a hit but we have a bunch of guys that have a ton of potential in Anderson, Hilton, Sampson, Brown, and Parker.
5) Mason Taylor is a stud plus we a bunch of guys behind him that will develop.
And this isn't even mentioning any income freshmen or transfers we could get.
On Defense we are definitely behind schedule but I think this is a case where its darkest before the dawn. We have a lot of freshman and a few Sophomores that seem to have the ability to compete at an SEC level if they can just learn their assigments.
1) In the secondary we have Harris, Welch, and Stamps at CB that all seem to have a high ceiling. We also don't know what we have in JK Johnson.
2) At safety Yaites already plays a role and Toviano is a guy that has the ability to develop into a Greg Brooks type of player.
3) At LB Whit Weeks has already shown he can play at this level, Perkins is a freak athlete and needs to develop but this is his natural spot, and while Penn didn't have a great game vs OM, he is definitely improved over last year and could improve some more.
4) at DE/rusher we have Womack who is a Bonafide stud (PLAY HIM MORE!) and Jackson Howard looks the part in pads. Hopefully Pete Jenkins will also be able to get Wiggins to play at his potential. Same with Savion Jones honestly.
5) DT is the only spot that is worrisome and at least for 2024, it should be ok. You would think that at least one of Smith or Wingo would come back. Smith has been underwhelming and another year post surgery/getting in shape could do him some good. Wingo is small as far as the NFL is concerned so maybe he stays too. Even if both leave we still have Guillory as a stop gap.
Again, this is young potential on this roster without even mentioning any recruits or transfers that could come in.
My point is that I don't think we arent as far from consistency as it seems at the moment.
This post was edited on 10/6/23 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 10/6/23 at 3:57 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
Bert Macklin FBI
My man
Great post and something this board desperately needed to hear. We’re going to be just fine under Kelly. This shite takes time to get in a groove.
Posted on 10/6/23 at 6:08 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
The point is you can’t compare a guy who hasn’t won a NC to a dude who has won many. There is no arc comparison. Just bc Saban went 7-7 his first year at an alabama program that had largely been irrelevant for well over 10 years.
Posted on 10/6/23 at 7:52 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
This theory is non-sensical. You always want to be successful quickly and for the success to be sustained. There’s no such thing as “finding success too quickly.”
Posted on 10/6/23 at 9:41 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
When LSU had a freaking First Down at the Missouri 1 Yard Line, I EXPECTED them to easily score, but the REALITY and outcome of the situation was different.
Those 4 Downs were the worst 4 Down Series in LSU Football history.
Just give the GD football to your running back and have him run right to the Pylon. 100% he gets in on 1 of the 4 tries.
They got too damned cute and completely over thought the entire situation.
I remember Myles Brennan was the QB, but can't remember who the OC was then.
LSU COULD NOT SCORE ON 4 DOWNS FROM THE ONE YARD LINE AGAINST MISSOURI.
That was a Top Ten (Maybe Top 5) play for me historically and I've seen a lot of LSU football!
Those 4 Downs were the worst 4 Down Series in LSU Football history.
Just give the GD football to your running back and have him run right to the Pylon. 100% he gets in on 1 of the 4 tries.
They got too damned cute and completely over thought the entire situation.
I remember Myles Brennan was the QB, but can't remember who the OC was then.
LSU COULD NOT SCORE ON 4 DOWNS FROM THE ONE YARD LINE AGAINST MISSOURI.
That was a Top Ten (Maybe Top 5)
play for me historically and I've seen a lot of LSU football! 
Posted on 10/6/23 at 11:21 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
I miss Ensminger.
Posted on 10/7/23 at 3:11 am to Bert Macklin FBI
Great post….funny thing is most of the idiots on here won’t read it because of the title. Reality isn’t a strong subject for half the people on this site.
Posted on 10/7/23 at 4:56 am to Bert Macklin FBI
Honestly kelly hit gold in his first year of the transfer portal and we still had guys like Jay Ward around in Kelly's first year. Converse, Gardner, Focha, Brooks were all light years ahead of what we got playing this year in the secondary. DBU is hurting bad but if we sign guys in this years recruiting class it should start to rebuilt itself. We have to hit one more year in the transfer portal also because this group was a bust.
This post was edited on 10/7/23 at 4:57 am
Posted on 10/7/23 at 7:14 am to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
Replacing 80% of the defense should have been a red flag
Your posts in this thread have been money.
But we didn’t replace 80% of the defense. We replaced 64% (7 of 11). The four returners were Greg Brooks (He was a starter when we crafted these expectations), Wingo, Maason Smith (Returning Day 1 starter), and Perkins. And except for the secondary, we had a lot of returning foundational backups like Savion, Penn, Weeks, and Guillory.
Posted on 10/7/23 at 7:40 am to lsudave1
quote:
Great post I agree with everything you said. Losing to those faux high society losers in Oxford sucks so much though and is gonna continue to piss me tf off for the next 12 months just like the Aggie loss did last year.
Try living around them. They are insufferable when they beat us. Thankfully, it isn’t all that often lately, which I remind them in detail any time I get hassled.
Posted on 10/7/23 at 8:08 am to armytiger33
quote:you’re right because there was no NIL and Saban was a cheater at LSU and bigger one at Bama. He is a great coach as is BK.
Comparing BK to Saban isn’t a fair comparison
Comparing LSU to Bama is what’s not fair. Kinda like new money to old money. See which one lasts.
quote:there were only 38 players but a few key pieces and a NEW QB. Read his OP idiot. They had key players and lost a ton due to eligibility for the draft. Greg Brooks was a key to the secondary and he is gone as is the DLine coach. He also just suspended a key DB for whatever reason. The team really doesn’t have the depth. He is playing and has played true freshmen, which in 2-3 years will be dominant. They have to keep them in order to have a firm foundation, which was another point. I suggest you put your money where your expectations are and donate to the NIL funds. That’s where LSU is getting beat.
But but he only had 38 players….. but but we beat Alabama last year. Nobody gives a shite. When you make more money a year than most male in a career you best have it figured out.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 2:23 pm to armytiger33
quote:
The point is you can’t compare a guy who hasn’t won a NC to a dude who has won many. There is no arc comparison. Just bc Saban went 7-7 his first year at an alabama program that had largely been irrelevant for well over 10 years.
Well sure you can. Every coach including Kirby Smart is compared to the Bama program. It has been the single most consistent program over the last 15 years and every other program is striving to emulate that.
The comparison that Saban went 6-6 in year 1 doesn't mean that BK or any other coach is destined to build a Bama style dynasty, but it does show that it takes time for even the best in the business to build a consistent winner. Not being champs in year 2 doesn't mean we won't get there.
You say Bama was a down program when Saban took over well what would you call a program with only 39 scholarship players?
No one is trying to say that BK has the skins on the wall that Saban has but we did hire him to try to build the same product. And he does seem to go about it in a similar manner which is trust the process and the results will follow.
And while he doesn't have a NC, BK isn't some hotlist flyer like Napier. He is a proven winner and has won everywhere he has been for 32 years including LSU in 2022. Hell he has been to the playoffs more than LSU has.
The point of this thread isn't to say that BK is Saban (I am not sure how you got that from this), its to say that it takes time to build a consistent winner.
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