Theory About Expectations vs Reality

In 2020 Brody Miller talked about a theory of finding success too fast and how it can actually be detrimental to a coach due to fanbase expectations vs the reality of where the program actually is.

The theory is that when a coach takes over a broken program, they have to build a solid foundation in order to have sustained success over a period of time. Meaning they need to have backups that are ready to take over for starters when the starters graduate or leave. BUT in some cases, like 2019, the pieces fall into place for immediate success before a proper foundation is put in place. What this leads to is players you were going to count on as foundational pieces moving forward leaving earlier than you expected and leaving gaps in your roster.

Because the coach had success quickly, the fanbase then has an expectation that the program is at a certain level and should stay that way. So when foundational pieces leave and there aren't new foundational pieces to replace them you get 2020 LSU and the fanbase is unhappy.

The Coach O program was the example that Brody gave because that was the team he was covering at the time but I don't think its a perfect example of this theory because O was bound to fail after 2019. He kinda lucked into having the right DC and having a selfless OC that knew he needed help and identified the help he needed. Plus he had burrow and 2 of the top 5 WRs in the NFL.

BUT I do think this theory works for BK. He kind of lucked out that we had a few really good pieces on defense like BJ Ojulari and Jay Ward. He also lucked into his transfers all coming in and playing well. On top of that he also found a super star freshman in Harold Perkins. With this group he was able to beat Bama and win the west in year one which set the fanbase's expectations really high for year 2. The issue is that the defense lost almost everyone and the foundation wasn't in place yet to replace so many playmakers.

My point isn't that BK gets a pass and this defensive performance is acceptable. My point is that having success so quickly probably set BK up to disappoint the fanbase in year 2. He seemingly pressed all the same buttons that worked in 2022 but they aren't working as well in 2023 (defensively).

The good news is that your team doesn't have to be stagnant and just improving this defensive unit by 2 or 3 additional stops per game will probably be enough to win most if not all of the remaining games on the schedule and possibly even win the SEC championship. Will that happen? We will have to tune in tomorrow and find out.