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re: I know it's been stated many times, but intentionally walking Crews to load the bases...
Posted on 4/15/23 at 10:56 pm to drizztiger
Posted on 4/15/23 at 10:56 pm to drizztiger
Dumb move. Teams will jump though hoops to try and push a guy to 3rd and here we have a coach simply giving the base up. lol
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Posted on 4/15/23 at 10:59 pm to drizztiger
I love having Tommy White batting after Crews. They can walk Crews every time if they want.
Posted on 4/15/23 at 11:00 pm to Tammany Tom
quote:
There is a reason why Jones yelled . . . to the pitcher after he hit his homerun.
It was because the pitcher quick-pitched him before that.
Posted on 4/15/23 at 11:27 pm to drizztiger
It was a stupid decision with 2 outs. Crews HAD to get a hit and even then a run scoring wouldn’t have been a guarantee the way we run the bases sometimes. With bases loaded, a run could be scored in so many ways besides just a hit. The percentages were NOT in UK’s favor with the decision he made if the goal was to keep a run from scoring.
Posted on 4/16/23 at 7:46 am to drizztiger
There were two outs. They went for the slightly easier batter, but hit him. I understand the decision.
Posted on 4/16/23 at 7:57 am to drizztiger
quote:
I know it's been stated many times, but intentionally walking Crews to load the bases (runners on 1/2) ... in a tie game in the bottom of the 8th... to face Tommy White and possibly Jordan Thompson next.
I probably would not have made that choice but UK had to choose who to induce a ground out, pop fly, or strikeout. Based on batting average alone pitching to Crews was a bad situation. White is a RBI machine so they had a choice of Death by hanging or Death by Bunga Bunga.
Thompson was immaterial to the strategy because the only needed one out. If they got to Thompson the lead was surrendered.
I guess we will never know if the strategy would have worked since the pitcher plunked White with the first pitch.
This post was edited on 4/16/23 at 7:58 am
Posted on 4/16/23 at 8:22 am to CamdenTiger
Excellent post, CT. 
Posted on 4/16/23 at 8:29 am to Lester Earl
quote:
That’s the risk you take trying to pitch to the lesser player
Which makes the overall risk not worth it.
Net net, it was a bad choice. Tommy’ OBP of .438 plus a passed ball or wild pitch risk = a run. It also could have blown the game open putting another runner in scoring position.
Posted on 4/16/23 at 8:49 am to slackster
As great as white is, he has been significantly easier to get out vs Dylan crews. You don’t let Dylan crews beat you right there. They know neither situation is desirable but pitching to White was the right call 10x out of 10x.
Crews 479/638/771
White 339/388/644
Crews 479/638/771
White 339/388/644
Posted on 4/16/23 at 9:07 am to DRock88
quote:
It was a stupid decision, even if it worked.
It was a borderline decision. Personally, I’m not pitching to Crews in that situation. As good as Tommy White is, Dylan Crews is much better. Just going by batting averages you have about a 13% better chance of a hit from Crews (in that circumstance, it’s probably higher). And the hit is probably going to be for extra bases.
That pitcher’s WHIP shows a 18% chance of a free pass or a wild pitch. Those numbers seem to show a slight advantage in pitching to Crews, but what those numbers don’t show is how confidant the coach was in that pitcher being better than his statistics at that moment. Close call. The numbers point to pitching to Crews, but my gut was telling me he shouldn’t.
Posted on 4/16/23 at 9:48 am to Lester Earl
It was the go ahead run - facing Crews with that guy on 2nd or White with the guy on 3rd is equally shitty as best, but a net bad decision when you still have an at bat left.
I get not letting the best player beat you, but I’m not walking him and putting my team in an even worse spot all things considered.
I get not letting the best player beat you, but I’m not walking him and putting my team in an even worse spot all things considered.
Posted on 4/16/23 at 9:59 am to slackster
You trust the pitcher to execute pitches, not hit the guy or throw a wild pitch. It was the right move and similar moves are made all the time in professional baseball vs elite hitters. They pitched around Crews all weekend, it wasn’t shocking at all.
Posted on 4/16/23 at 10:06 am to LSBoosie
quote:this was exactly all it was about. All the rest of these numskulls calling it a stupid move or hate their coach are stupid. Fortunately for lsu it worked out with a hbp right after scoring the go ahead run.
think their thought process was we need a double play or strikeout. White is more likely to give you one of those than Crews. Tough spot to be in
This post was edited on 4/16/23 at 10:06 am
Posted on 4/16/23 at 10:08 am to Lester Earl
I wonder if the advanced metrics would have agreed with the decision…I think not…
The percentage of a guy scoring from 3rd vs second would have probably negated the difference in batting averages…I don’t care how good crews is, I think it was the wrong decision.
The percentage of a guy scoring from 3rd vs second would have probably negated the difference in batting averages…I don’t care how good crews is, I think it was the wrong decision.
Posted on 4/16/23 at 10:09 am to thekid
Think of the mental boost for KY if they got him out…the whole team would have been fired up
Posted on 4/16/23 at 10:13 am to drizztiger
Y'all.
Crews walks a frick ton. Because as you have seen, he has major leaguer plate discipline.
So as a manager you know you can't "pitch around" him and hope he swings at bad pitches. So you either have your pitcher do that and hope he doesn't miss a spot. Because if he does you're done. So instead of risking 4 pitches like that you just put him on base.
And yes Tanks is elite, but he still is an emotional hitter and will swing at trash at times. Especially if you piss him off. Like intentionally walking the guy in front of him to get to him.
That's a lower risk play than trying to pitch around Crews and getting burned. Because you get burned 50% of the time. Or he walks so just walk him anyway.
I understand why y'all think that's a dumb move, but that's a smart baseball analytical move.
It just is.
Crews walks a frick ton. Because as you have seen, he has major leaguer plate discipline.
So as a manager you know you can't "pitch around" him and hope he swings at bad pitches. So you either have your pitcher do that and hope he doesn't miss a spot. Because if he does you're done. So instead of risking 4 pitches like that you just put him on base.
And yes Tanks is elite, but he still is an emotional hitter and will swing at trash at times. Especially if you piss him off. Like intentionally walking the guy in front of him to get to him.
That's a lower risk play than trying to pitch around Crews and getting burned. Because you get burned 50% of the time. Or he walks so just walk him anyway.
I understand why y'all think that's a dumb move, but that's a smart baseball analytical move.
It just is.
This post was edited on 4/16/23 at 10:14 am
Posted on 4/16/23 at 10:17 am to drizztiger
quote:
I know it's been stated many times, but intentionally walking Crews to load the bases (runners on 1/2) ... in a tie game in the bottom of the 8th... to face Tommy White and possibly Jordan Thompson next.
Even though White is a great hitter in his own right, you have to play the percentages. Crews is hitting over .500 and not a single team is going to pitch to him if they dont have to. It was the right call but its very much a pick your poison decision.
Posted on 4/16/23 at 10:34 am to thekid
quote:
The percentage of a guy scoring from 3rd vs second would have probably negated the difference in batting averages
There were 2outs. It’s prob not drastic at all
Posted on 4/16/23 at 10:34 am to Lester Earl
quote:
You trust the pitcher to execute pitches, not hit the guy or throw a wild pitch.
I mean, sure, but those are legitimate possibilities. In fact, Byers has walked or hit about 20% of the batters he’s faced this season…
Posted on 4/16/23 at 10:46 am to Rouge
quote:
probably because his batting average is 135 points lower, but I'm not a strategist.
I’m not sure where to find it, but I’d imagine TW batting avg with runners in scoring position is higher than his actual batting avg based on the number of RBIs he has.
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