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Will The Bank Fiasco Affect Mortgage Rates?
Posted on 3/13/23 at 9:57 pm
Posted on 3/13/23 at 9:57 pm
I’m not even going to pretend I understand what happened but as someone who is wanting to build a house, will any of this affect mortgage rates?
9
Posted on 3/13/23 at 10:19 pm to GAFF
I know existing home sales are down from 2022, but are people still building houses in this current economic situation?
Posted on 3/13/23 at 10:24 pm to GAFF
If it causes the Fed to halt the rate hikes then its probably going to halt mortgage rates for a bit.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 10:29 pm to GAFF
it already has. unsure if just a blip or for longer term, but rates did drop. that said, mortgage rates mostly depend on fed rate
Posted on 3/13/23 at 11:14 pm to GAFF
I went to finalize some paperwork on the refinancing of my house and was told the rate had dropped from 6.05 to 5.80. Old rate was from a week ago.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 11:32 pm to GAFF
quote:Rates have collapsed across the curve. They have a good chance of coming down starting this week. Rate vol is high, though, so that will offset it for awhile I would surmise.
Will The Bank Fiasco Affect Mortgage Rates?
Posted on 3/13/23 at 11:36 pm to Big Scrub TX
Rumors of a 100 bp cut now to allow the banks some breathing room.
Posted on 3/13/23 at 11:48 pm to MrLSU
quote:I'll be very surprised if that happens. I think still a 25bps increase this week.
Rumors of a 100 bp cut now to allow the banks some breathing room.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 12:34 am to Play_Neck
quote:
mortgage rates mostly depend on fed rate
Keep an eye on movements in the 10 year treasury.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 12:40 am to Play_Neck
quote:nope
mortgage rates mostly depend on fed rate
Posted on 3/14/23 at 1:56 am to GAFF
This may make banks overdo due diligence for the loan and you find underwriting moving like molasses in the wintertime. Good luck.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 3:57 am to MrLSU
quote:
MrLSU
quote:
Rumors of a 100 bp cut now to allow the banks some breathing room.
You’re completely talking out of your arse.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 6:53 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
I'll be very surprised if that happens.
Same. I saw someone on here yesterday speculating a full point by December, I think that's just emblematic of the wishcasting the market has been trying since these rate hikes began.
quote:
I think still a 25bps increase this week.
I'm still about 50/50 on .25 vs .5 until CPI comes out.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 7:43 am to GAFF
Hoping the Fed sees what we all see and immediately halts rate hikes. The market will correct but if rates keep going up it’ll drive recession even more
Posted on 3/14/23 at 8:38 am to Paul Allen
quote:
but are people still building houses in this current economic situation?
Rich people are, $800k and up around here anyway. Cant keep up with the work.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 8:50 am to GAFF
It's certainly affecting some of the business deals I was getting as recent as last summer. Seems like there's less willingness to bend a little to make some deals work from some of the senior level management types.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 9:49 am to Bard
quote:Perfect term for it!
wishcasting
Posted on 3/14/23 at 10:35 am to kengel2
quote:
$800k and up around here anyway. Cant keep up with the work.
The same here. 800k homes being built and selling quick. I can't figure out how or why
Posted on 3/14/23 at 11:08 am to Paul Allen
quote:
people still building houses in this current economic situation?
Yes when you check the FRED. Down but still well above 2008 thru 2018 starts - and not much lower than starts in 2007.
quote:
2023 900
2022 1,010
2021 1,127
2020 990
2019 888
2018 876
2017 849
2016 782
2015 715
2014 648
2013 618
2012 535
2011 431
2010 471
2009 445
2008 622
2007 1,046
2006 1,465
2005 1,716
2004 1,611
2003 1,499
2002 1,359
2001 1,273
The argument from the real estate industry is there must be an undersupply of homes but this argument amounts to "wishcasting" IMO because of what the FRED data on rate of home ownership (homes lived in by the person owning the mortgage or property outright) show.
Posted on 3/14/23 at 1:25 pm to Bullfrog
quote:
This may make banks overdo due diligence for the loan and you find underwriting moving like molasses in the wintertime. Good luck.
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