re: This is what I think the final CFP poll will look like if LSU wins out.

Posted by J2thaROC

Member since May 2018

13082 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:26 am to Hurricane2020

quote:
and the craziest part is bo nix is a Heisman candidate.

That should tell you all you need to know about EXACTLY WHY Oregon does NOT belong in the CFP. This tells you the shite level of competition they are playing.

Posted by Sailin Tiger

Member since Jul 2014

1463 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:26 am to justsaygeaux2

quote:
TCU still has to get through UT and Baylor. I wouldn't be shocked if they lost both of those games.

Agree the toughest team they have played to this point is Oklahoma State who they beat in OT. You can only play the games scheduled but to automatically assume they are undefeated is premature. Theyll play at both Texas and Baylor in back to back weeks which will be their toughest tests this year even if they were at home.

Posted by LNCHBOX

70448

Member since Jun 2009

84535 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:32 am to Hurricane2020

quote:
Who do you put Georgia in over?

quote:
Pac-12 Champ Oregon?

Without question UGA goes over Oregon. Did you miss week 1?

Posted by Hurricane2020

Member since Apr 2020

2514 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:39 am to J2thaROC

Maybe Bo Nix performing better than Caleb Williams in the same conference shows us exactly why Auburn has fired 2 head coaches in 2 years.

Posted by GumboPot

Member since Mar 2009

119554 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:40 am to ForeverEllisHugh

quote:
Best 4 teams would be UGA/LSU/Tenn and the Big10 champ. TCU and Oregon would lose by 14+ to any of them.

This is the correct answer but I don’t believe the committee will put 3 SEC teams in the playoff.

Oh, and TCU will lose.

Posted by YeauxTigers

Sugar Land, TX

Member since Dec 2007

961 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:41 am to Hurricane2020

There are a lot of scenarios that could happen (see the end of 2007 and other seasons). It will become much clearer in a week or two.

I believe the horns will take care of the frogs. And I think UGA and the BIG 10 Champ is in no matter what. I think the SEC Champ is in, so if we win out and don't get in that would be something else (this would actually discourage teams from scheduling tougher early games). The PAC 12 Champ has a legit shot.

UGA
BIG 10 Champ
PAC 12 Champ
LSU if they win out, otherwise the 11-1 Vols

Posted by lostinbr

Baton Rouge, LA

Member since Oct 2017

9759 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:55 am to Hurricane2020

In the past we’ve heard the CFP committee use these metrics as justification for final rankings:
- Conference champions
- Wins vs. CFP top 10 teams
- Wins vs. CFP top 25 teams

Taking your example and assuming LSU wins out / favorites win the rest of the conference championship games:

Ohio State 13-0
*3 top 25 wins
*1 top 10 win
*Conference champion

TCU 13-0
*3 top 25 wins
*Conference champion

Oregon 12-1
*4 top 25 wins
*1 top 10 win
*Conference champion

Clemson 12-1
*4 top 25 wins
*Conference champion

LSU 11-2
*3 top 25 wins
*2 top 10 wins
*Conference champion

Georgia 12-1
*2 top 25 wins
*2 top 10 wins

Tennessee 11-1
*2 top 25 wins
*2 top 10 wins

Michigan 11-1
*2 top 25 wins

USC 11-2
*3 top 25 wins

Of course, the top 10 and top 25 will change between now and then so the numbers will move a bit.

This scenario would put the CFP committee in an impossible spot. As easy as it is to laugh at Clemson, the committee has actually been relatively high on the ACC this year with 5 teams currently in the top 25. Compare that to the SEC (5), the PAC 12 (5), the Big 10 (4), and the Big 12 (4).

OTOH, the highest ranked ACC team outside of Clemson is currently UNC at #19. So that landscape could change considerably over the next month.

I also think it’s likely that someone will lose a game they shouldn’t. Illinois could upset Ohio State in the Big 10 championship. Oregon still has to play Utah and Oregon State in the regular season. If they drop one but beat USC in the championship, the PAC 12 might be out. TCU still has to beat Texas and win the Big 12 championship, or that conference is out.

It’s a cliche, but there’s still a lot of football left to play.

This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 9:06 am

Posted by PhiTiger1764

Lurker since Aug 2003

Member since Oct 2009

13961 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 8:59 am to Hurricane2020

I just find it impossible to rank 11-1 Tennessee behind 11-2 LSU. Especially considering they destroyed us at home.

It’s also impossible to have 3 SEC Teams make the playoffs. I think Georgia is the odd man out.

It will be interesting to see it play out.

2 ...

Posted by rocket31

Member since Jan 2008

41819 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:01 am to IAmTheTator

quote:
“eye tests” love Michigan.

wut

Posted by LNCHBOX

70448

Member since Jun 2009

84535 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:01 am to PhiTiger1764

quote:
I just find it impossible to rank 11-1 Tennessee behind 11-2 LSU. Especially considering they destroyed us at home.

We beat UGA and win the conference, we're in. It is what it is. Earning the extra game means something.

quote:
I think Georgia is the odd man out.

No fricking shot

Tennessee is 100% out when we beat UGA.

Posted by PhiTiger1764

Lurker since Aug 2003

Member since Oct 2009

13961 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:03 am to LNCHBOX

How do you put LSU ahead of Tennessee?

The extra loss AND blowout head to head is bigger than the SEC Championship.

Posted by LNCHBOX

70448

Member since Jun 2009

84535 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:04 am to PhiTiger1764

quote:
How do you put LSU ahead of Tennessee?

By them winning their division and their conference by beating the #1 team. It's pretty fricking simple.

Posted by EasterEgg

New Orleans Metro

Member since Sep 2018

4810 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:04 am to Hurricane2020

Well TCU is going to lose to Texas, so that was a lot of words for nothing.

Posted by PhiTiger1764

Lurker since Aug 2003

Member since Oct 2009

13961 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:04 am to LNCHBOX

It’s anything but simple. Hence the discussion.

This is the nightmare scenario for the committee.

2 ...

Posted by LNCHBOX

70448

Member since Jun 2009

84535 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:06 am to PhiTiger1764

quote:
It’s anything but simple.

To you maybe. Tennessee is officially on the outside looking in. They have no more ranked teams to play. They have nothing to improve their case. Their only path in is UGA winning the SEC

quote:
This is the nightmare scenario for the committee.

It's not though. UGA loses to LSU, LSU and UGA are in.

Posted by PhiTiger1764

Lurker since Aug 2003

Member since Oct 2009

13961 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:09 am to LNCHBOX

lol right. I’m the only one who thinks this isn’t obvious.

Posted by Lester Earl

Member since Nov 2003

279495 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:15 am to PhiTiger1764

It’s definitely not simple but it will be hard to keep lsu out especially because they are ascending up the polls already. Their losses have already become an afterthought, oddly enough.

This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 9:19 am

Posted by LNCHBOX

70448

Member since Jun 2009

84535 posts

Posted on 11/7/22 at 9:16 am to PhiTiger1764

quote:
lol right.

You're free to lay out your argument. Here are the facts. LSU will be at worst #6 after this week. If we were to win the SEC, that means we win out, including a win over #1 while Tennessee sits at home. Your argument would require the committee to not move LSU up two spots after beating #1 while #5 sat at home.

That's crazy talk. TH e committee putting LSU at 10 this past week has already told you how they think about us right now.

In conclusion, it is simple to anyone paying attention. LSU is controls their destiny. Tennessee needs UGA to win out.