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This is what I think the final CFP poll will look like if LSU wins out.

Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:01 am
Posted by Hurricane2020
Member since Apr 2020
2472 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:01 am
I want to start this by showing there is already precedent with the college football playoff committee ranking 10-2 Auburn as the #2 team in the country the week of conference championship games. For one they think the SEC is an entirely different level of play than any other conference, and if they feel LSU is a top 4 team with 2 losses we will still make it.



Let's say this is you final rankings prior to conference championships

#1 Georgia 12-0
#2 Ohio State 12-0
#3 TCU 12-0
#4 Tennessee 11-1
#5 Oregon 11-1
#7 LSU 10-2
#7 USC 11-1
#8 Michigan 11-1

Post Conference championship games
The easy ones in this scenario:

#1 Ohio State 13-0 Big-10 champ
#2 TCU 13-0 Big-12 champ

Now we have to figure it out

Oregon 12-1 Pac-12 champ
LSU 11-2 SEC champ
Clemson 12-1 blowout by ND champ
Georgia 12-1 SEC runner up
Tennessee 11-1

So let's talk about it:

Oregon:
Only loss is to a very good Georgia but since then they have turned their season around blew out and won their conference, and the craziest part is bo nix is a Heisman candidate.

LSU:
Lost by a blocked extra point in game 1 of the season. Was hot and cold to start. Got blewout by Tennessee at home after making tons of mistakes. Then proceeds to put on big boy pants, whoops Florida, embarrasses ole miss, shocks Bama, proceeds to sweep up the trash at the end of the schedule before knocking off the unanimous #1 team in the country and won the SEC Championship game.

Clemson:
frick Clemson and Dabo Swiney's pity party. They just got blown out by the worst Notre Dame team in 10 years. Who cares if they won a cripple fight in the All Cripple Conference championship game.

Georgia:
They ANNIHILATED Oregon to open the season. Got lazy against a lot of really bad teams throughout the season but still won. Proceeded to Stomp Tennessee in November and went to the SEC championship game before losing to a surging LSU team.

Tennessee:
They beat by Bama as underdogs. Stomped an LSU team that wasn't playing consistently good football, but proceeded to be embarrassed by Georgia and missed the SEC championship game.

So with that said here are your picks for top 4 in my opinion:

Scenario 1:

#1 Ohio State 13-0 Big-10 champ
#2 TCU 13-0 Big-12 champ
#3 Oregon 12-1 Pac 12 champ
#4 LSU 11-2 SEC champ

#5 Georgia 12-1 SEC runner up
#6 Tennessee 11-1
#7 Clemson 12-1 ACC champ
#8 Michigan 11-1

Scenario 2:

But let's say TCU drops a game, they haven't been a good team all year and have been squeaking games out. Being undefeated is the only thing propping their resume up right now:

#1 Ohio State 13-0 Big-10 champ
#2 Oregon 12-1 Pac 12 champ
#3 LSU 11-2 SEC champ
#4 Georgia 12-1 SEC runner up

#5 Tennessee 11-1
#6 TCU 12-1 Big-12 champ
#7 Clemson 12-1 ACC champ
#8 Michigan 11-1

The CFP committee more credit for how good a team is playing in November vs how a team played in September and October. The SEC is also by far the best conference top to bottom in the country. Should LSU win the SEC championship game, the committee will be forced to place LSU above the team they beat and the team the runner up blew out. The committee will hold significantly more weight for LSUs win over Georgia, vs Tennessees October win over LSU. LSU will have beaten 2 top 10 teams and the #1 team in the country by the final week of the season. If LSU doesn't get in then no SEC team will.

I do want to follow this by saying I think TCU drops a game and scenario 2 is more likely.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 12:35 pm
Posted by TL
Perry, Louisiana
Member since Jul 2011
336 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:06 am to
That's some serious work right there.
Posted by ShaneTheMaster
Tampa, FL
Member since Nov 2009
2929 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:07 am to
No way 1 loss Georgia is left out
Posted by ForeverEllisHugh
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2016
14814 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:14 am to
Best 4 teams would be UGA/LSU/Tenn and the Big10 champ.

TCU and Oregon would lose by 14+ to any of them.
Posted by blowmeauburn
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2006
7885 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:17 am to
Agree. Think Georgia is in no matter what. It becomes LSU or Oregon.

Posted by Hurricane2020
Member since Apr 2020
2472 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:18 am to
Who do you put Georgia in over?

Undefeated Ohio State?
Undefeated TCU?
SEC Champ LSU?
Pac-12 Champ Oregon?

Going in over Oregon is the only one I could justify. You can't put Georgia over LSU, LSU just beat them in the game that mattered most. But I also can't justify putting LSU over Oregon very much, Oregon has played way too good this season, especially when they beat top 10 Caleb Williams lead USC Pac-12 championship game. Yea Georgia beat them early, but once again the playoff committee rates you more on how you're playing now vs how you're playing then. Also, don't forget that Georgia would have just lost to a 2 loss team so it will slightly discredit the SEC SOS as a whole.
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 7:30 am
Posted by justsaygeaux2
Member since Feb 2017
2210 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:20 am to
quote:

But let's say TCU drops a game, they haven't been a good team all year and have been squeaking games out. Being undefeated is the only thing propping their resume up right now:


TCU still has to get through UT and Baylor. I wouldn't be shocked if they lost both of those games.
Posted by RawDog7984
Member since Oct 2019
1367 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:20 am to
In no scenario ever does a a one loss team who loses in their conference championship not go in over another 1 loss team that they blew out by 40 points. That scenario is beyond comical. Georgia wins out and goes 12-0 it doesn’t matter what happens in the SECCG. They’re a lock. Plain and simple.
Posted by rattlebucket
SELA
Member since Feb 2009
11453 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:21 am to
quote:

That's some serious work right there.


It sure is. And I guarantee it will not play out like that

But cant a boy dream?!?
Posted by Htownbayubengal
Houston
Member since Oct 2022
1406 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:21 am to
They won't put 3 SEC teams there, but absolutely should be Ohio State, Michigan and Two from the SEC. If we win out obviously us and Ga. If Ga beats us, then GA and Tenn.
Posted by novabill
Crossville, TN
Member since Sep 2005
10446 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:22 am to
quote:

Agree. Think Georgia is in no matter what. It becomes LSU or Oregon.


LSU beats GA and is SEC Champs and they may or may not get in and the team they beat for the championship is in for sure?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123945 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:23 am to
No way Oregon gets in over UGA. 49-3 ... and it wasn't that close.
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
95344 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:25 am to
quote:

In no scenario ever does a a one loss team who loses in their conference championship not go in over another 1 loss team that they blew out by 40 points. That scenario is beyond comical. Georgia wins out and goes 12-0 it doesn’t matter what happens in the SECCG. They’re a lock. Plain and simple.
So Tennessee would be a lock too over us with this logic
Posted by Hurricane2020
Member since Apr 2020
2472 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:27 am to
We lost by 1pt to a mediocre Florida state and it wasn't that close either. they could've kneeled the ball, kicked a FG and beat us by 10pts. LSU would be favored by 20-30pts in a rematch today.
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
10354 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:27 am to
Yeah, TCU is not winning out. That said, neither is LSU. 10-3 & a Sugar Bowl is a hell of a year for this team. But we are not on Georgia’s level—yet!
I think Oregon stubs their toe again, too. My best guess:
1) Georgia
2) Ohio State
3) Tennessee
4) Michigan
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 7:31 am
Posted by Htownbayubengal
Houston
Member since Oct 2022
1406 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:29 am to
quote:

LSU would be favored by 20-30pts in a rematch today.



and yet we are only a 3 point favorite over Arkansas. Yeah, little exaggeration there I suspect.
Posted by Tigersonfire
Pville
Member since Oct 2018
3027 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:31 am to
Your second model. IF and I mean IF we were to somehow miraculously beat UGA. SEC gets two in then Ohio St and whoever the best of the rest is. Tenn will be out because the world would melt with 3 SEC teams. Plus I think tenn loses again. The model is out now how to beat them.
Posted by budlight34
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
1149 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:34 am to
2 spots are locked in right now. Whoever wins out between Michigan and Ohio State and UGA, if they go 12-0. They dont need the SEC championship

The other 2 spots are up for grabs

Obviously TCU gets in if they run the table. Any loss knocks them out

The pac 12 , LSU (if they won out ), a 1 loss Tennesse would all have claim to the last spot.
Posted by Hurricane2020
Member since Apr 2020
2472 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:36 am to
Do you honestly think LSU is a 3pt favorite over Arkansas? Vegas thinks it's a trap game that's all that line is. Vegas thinks LSU will struggle to play at the same intensity as they did vs BAMA. Arkansas is Ole Miss with a worse QB (who probably won't play), worse run game and much worse defense. We blew out Ole Miss by 3 scores even after shitting the bed in the first quarter.
Posted by IAmTheTator
Frisco, TX
Member since Sep 2015
57 posts
Posted on 11/7/22 at 7:36 am to
You are not correctly accounting for how the committee will treat a 1-loss Michigan
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