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Posted on 2/23/23 at 8:20 pm to Jim Rockford
ISW Update
quote:
The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations on the Chernihiv Oblast international border and in Moldova ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian Northern Operational Command reported on February 23 that Russian forces are preparing possible false flag operations in the international border areas of Chernihiv Oblast.[1] The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian intelligence has already observed Russian convoys with unmarked military equipment and personnel dressed in uniforms resembling those worn by the Ukrainian military move to areas near the Chernihiv Oblast border. The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command stated that the purpose of these false flag operations would be to accuse Ukrainian forces of violating the territorial integrity of an unspecified country, very likely referring to Belarus. The Kremlin may be preparing false flag attacks to coerce Belarus into the war following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's February 16 statement that Belarus would only enter the war if attacked by Ukraine.[2] The Belarusian Ministry of Defense also notably claimed on February 21 that Belarusian forces observed a buildup of Ukrainian forces at its borders.[3] ISW continues to assess that Belarusian or Russian attack on northern Ukrainian regions is highly unlikely, but Russia seeks to force Lukashenko’s hand or blame Ukraine for expanding the war to undermine support for Kyiv. Such a false flag operation could also aim to fix Ukrainian forces at the northern border in an effort to weaken Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine and preparations for counter-offensive operations.
The Kremlin also appears to be setting information conditions to stage a false flag operation in occupied Transnistria, Moldova. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on February 23 that Ukrainian forces are planning to conduct an armed provocation against Transnistria in the near future.[4] The MoD claimed that Ukrainian forces would dress as Russian military personnel and stage an alleged Russian offensive from positions in Transnistria.[5] The Moldovan government denied the Russian MoD’s allegations.[6] The MoD likely sought to foster this false narrative to twist Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky‘s warning to Moldovan President Maia Sandu that the Kremlin was preparing provocations in Moldova and his offer to help Moldova if Russian forces in Transnistria threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deliver boilerplate rhetoric in public addresses that offered him opportunities he did not take to shape the Russian information space ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin marked Defenders of the Fatherland Day on February 23 with a video address in which he reiterated tired Kremlin talking points arguing that the Russian military is fighting neo-Nazism in Ukraine and protecting “our people in our historical lands.”[8] Putin delivered vague remarks that the Russian military is improving the training of its units and continuing to supply advanced equipment to its forces.[9] Putin also asserted that Russian industry is quickly increasing the production of a broad range of conventional weapons and preparing for the mass production of advanced models of military equipment, although ISW assesses that Russia continues to gradually prepare its defense industrial base (DIB) for a protracted war instead of engaging in wider rapid economic mobilization.[10] Putin’s speech did not offer specific goals or objectives for the war on Ukraine but instead continued generic rhetorical lines of effort aiming to prepare the Russian public for a protracted war in Ukraine. Putin’s refusal to use the public address to issue specific goals or policies ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine suggests that Putin remains uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space through a dramatic speech that represents a significant inflection in his rhetoric.[
quote:
Putin likely attempted to downplay recent surges of criticism regarding the integration of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR/LNR) into the Russian Armed Forces. Putin attended a wreath-laying ceremony to mark Defenders of the Fatherland Day, during which a Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Lieutenant Colonel Roman Cheremukhin asked him questions concerning the status of DNR and LNR militias and their inability to access state benefits for combat veterans.[12] Putin responded that the Russian government will include DNR and LNR militia personnel who served from 2014 onward to the list of those eligible for combat veteran benefits, in what was likely an orchestrated performance similar to past exchanges between Putin and servicemembers.[13] Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Andrey Turchak’s announcement that DNR and LNR personnel who fought in Ukraine since 2014 would receive the status of combat participant further suggests that the incident was staged.[14] The Kremlin is likely attempting to gain favor with the newly-integrated DNR and LNR militias – who have expressed concern over the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) imposing military command changes within their units – by offering them the prospect of having state benefits.
quote:
Putin seems more concerned with appealing to ultranationalist pro-war ideologues and tired rhetorical gestures than with presenting any new approach to achieving the Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine. Putin’s only specific remark in his public address concerned the operation of the Borei-A nuclear-powered submarine and how it would allow the Russian Navy’s strategic nuclear forces to operate at 100 percent capacity.[15] Putin’s remarks concerning the Russian Navy‘s strategic nuclear forces were likely meant to support ongoing Russian information operations aimed at discouraging Western support to Ukraine by fueling hyperbolic concerns about nuclear escalation, as well as to display Russian military might to a domestic audience by highlighting capabilities that are not involved with Russian military failures in Ukraine.[16] Putin also engaged in a likely staged interaction with a representative from the Russian Orthodox Church in which he stated that he would do everything to address the concerns of the Orthodox clergy serving with Russian forces in Ukraine.[17] Putin’s appeals to nuclear armaments, DNR and LNR proxy forces, and Orthodoxy indicate that he is continuing to rely on rhetoric that he knows appeals to the Russian ultranationalist pro-war community.
Posted on 2/23/23 at 8:22 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russian President Vladimir Putin likely continues to suffer from confirmation bias in his belief that Russia’s will to fight will outlast the West’s will to support Ukraine. The Financial Times (FT) cited unnamed officials close to the Kremlin stating that Putin assesses that “Russia is more committed to the war than the West is to Ukraine and [is] resilient enough to see out the economic pain.”[18] Unnamed Kremlin sources also told FT that Putin’s demands for loyalty over competence among elites is forcing them to refrain from being honest with him about the progress of the war, and noted that Putin gets information of “poor” quality as a result. Sources also revealed that most of Putin’s presidential administration and economic cabinet expressed that they do not support this war but use lies as a survival tactic, with only a small number of officials resigning since the start of the invasion. One longtime insider also observed that Putin is of “sound mind” and is “reasonable,” which supports ISW’s February 5 assessment that he is a highly calculated actor who places considerable emphasis on eliminating risks.[19] Insiders also revealed that Putin also withheld his plans to launch a full-scale invasion in February 2022 and his plans to occupy Crimea in 2014 from his closest advisors, with his circle of advisors recently tightening even more. The insider information indicates that Putin is prepared for Russia to suffer through a costly and exhausting protracted war under the conviction that the war will tire out Western support. Putin is also likely misinformed about the effectiveness of the Western equipment on the frontlines and its ability to impede his plans for a protracted war of attrition. The combination of Putin’s beliefs about Russian staying power and expectations of the collapse of Western will with the shrinking circle of advisors and the apparent unwillingness of insiders to contradict him likely create a strong confirmation bias in Putin’s observations of Western statements and outreach. Putin is likely to prioritize any indications of waning Western support or hesitancy over statements or indications of Western toughness or determination if this hypothesis is correct. Western leaders would do well to consider the likelihood that confirmation bias of this sort is shaping Putin’s perceptions in their own public and private statements and actions.
quote:
A Russian source attempted to preempt Western discussions about releasing classified information regarding China’s considerations to provide lethal aid to Russia. A prominent Russian milblogger responded to Chinese Foreign Minister Yi Wang’s denial that China intends to supply weapons to Russia and stated that China provides Russia the opportunity to purchase various types of ammunition, industrial drones, field medicine, and protective gear on a commercial basis.[20] The Russian milblogger claimed that Chinese-made equipment is abundantly available in Russia and is present throughout the front in Ukraine.
quote:
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) fulfilled Wagner Group’s complete artillery ammunition request on February 23 following immense support for Prigozhin in the Russian information space.[24] Prigozhin thanked many unspecified figures for helping to solve Wagner’s ammunition shortage problems, including unspecified individuals in positions of power who “exerted pressure and made decisions” in favor of Wagner, and claimed these individuals helped save hundreds of Wagner personnel from dying in combat operations. Prigozhin likely aimed to further undermine the Russian MoD by thanking individuals rather than the MoD itself for providing Wagner with all its requested ammunition. Prigozhin’s February 23 resolution did not generate significant discussion within the information space, unlike Prigozhin’s escalation on February 22.[25] Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of Ukrainian General Staff, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov stated on February 23 that the Russian military command is trying to oust Prigozhin from the information space after his continuous resistance to subordinate to the Russian MoD
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for false flag operations in Chernihiv Oblast and Moldova ahead of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deliver boilerplate rhetoric in public events that present him opportunities to shape the Russian information space ahead of the year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Putin likely attempted to downplay recent surges of criticism regarding the integration of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR/LNR) into the Russian Armed Forces.
Putin seems more concerned with appealing to ultranationalist pro-war ideologues with meaningless gestures than with presenting any new approach to achieving the Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine.
Putin likely continues to suffer from confirmation bias in his belief that Russia’s will to fight will outlast the West’s will to support Ukraine.
A Russian source attempted to preempt Western discussions of releasing classified information regarding China’s considerations to provide lethal aid to Russia.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) fulfilled Wagner Group’s complete artillery ammunition request on February 23 following immense support for Prigozhin in the Russian information space.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Svatove and Kreminna.
Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
Russian authorities announced that they completed the repair of the Kerch Strait Bridge road spans ahead of schedule.
Russian officials continue to offer incremental and insufficient benefits to support Russian military personnel and defense manufacturers.
Russian occupation officials continue efforts to militarize Ukrainian children through the installation of military-patriotic educational programs in occupied areas.
Posted on 2/23/23 at 8:33 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
NEW: The Kremlin may be preparing false flag attacks on the Chernihiv Oblast international border to coerce Belarus into the war - Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine’s operational command north mentioned unmarked military convoys and Russians wearing similar style uniforms that Ukraine uses were seen recently in this area.
Posted on 2/23/23 at 8:41 pm to Burhead
Posted on 2/23/23 at 9:04 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
Respectfully asking, Can we leave the poli board stuff on the poli board?
Posted on 2/23/23 at 9:12 pm to Chromdome35
Agree. It’s so tiring to see the same lame arse stuff over and over about the politics
Posted on 2/23/23 at 9:17 pm to notiger1997
Posted on 2/23/23 at 9:25 pm to LeroyBrown
CNN:
Hmm. That doesn't sound like $2 billion. I wonder what else is included.
quote:
The Biden administration is expected to announce another $2 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds on Friday, the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion, a US official said Thursday.
Unlike drawdown packages, which are pulled directly from US weapons stocks and can be shipped quickly to Ukraine, USAI packages are purchased or contracted from the industry. Though the aid can take far longer to arrive in Ukraine, it also signals a longer-term commitment to providing assistance to Kyiv in what the US sees as a protracted conflict against Russia.
This is new funding for purchases and new contracts for equipment for Ukraine, including:
HIMARS rockets
155m artillery ammunition
multiple types of drones (UAVS)
Counter UAV equipment
Mine clearing equipment
Secure communications equipment
Funding for training and maintenance
Hmm. That doesn't sound like $2 billion. I wonder what else is included.
Posted on 2/23/23 at 9:29 pm to LeroyBrown
quote:
Friend or foe?
Foe. Modi is an awful wannabe dictator who could give two shits about us.
Posted on 2/23/23 at 11:02 pm to LeroyBrown
quote:
India. Friend or foe?
To hell with India.
Posted on 2/24/23 at 12:29 am to Chromdome35
Deal. That just irked me.
Posted on 2/24/23 at 12:58 am to SteelerBravesDawg
I get it, there are days some of the comments make my head want to explode.
I found this to be an interesting thread on the tactics being used.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1628289157461078018
I found this to be an interesting thread on the tactics being used.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1628289157461078018
quote:
1/17 You don't hear as much about the advancement of regular russian brigades, but you see reports about Wagner advancing in certain areas. While it's true that it's achieved due to extrajudicial executions and irrational losses, the situation is a little bit more complex
2/17 One of the biggest threats posed by Wagner is that they have much more freedom in assaults than regular forces, whose officers must follow rules defined by military regulations, based on the soviet military doctrine. Let's take a closer look at Wagner's tactics.
3/17 Let's imagine a situation where a Ukrainian squad, possibly 9 people, is tasked with securing a tree line in trenches - a quite common occurrence in this war.
4/17 Before the attack, the enemy dispatches a quadcopter to gather intelligence about defenders - the number of people, their armament, trench, and dugout disposition. Based on this information, wagnerites would adjust the number of assault teams, to have a numerical advantage.
5/17 Once targets are determined, the enemy artillery or mortars shell trenches, sometimes for a few days, suppressing the ability of defenders to fight or observe. Covered by this fire, the assault teams start moving closer to the trenches without any significant resistance.
6/17 Wagnerites usually break down into small assault teams consisting of 3-4 people. The first team is usually led by a "scout" who is tasked to observe and locate mined areas ahead. He is followed by two regular riflemen and a machine gunner.
7/17 At the same time, they are usually also covered by the "support" team, armed either with mortar, or automatic grenade launchers such as AGS-17 or AGS-30. Given that not every assault group has one, they can be replaced with a few soldiers armed with RPG-7s instead.
8/17 Once the artillery fire ends, before defenders can take any measures, the support team armed with AGS or RPGs and a machine gun, opens suppressive fire, allowing assault teams to move even closer to trenches. They usually try to engage and outflank the defenders.
9/17 Once close enough to the trenches, the enemy uses hand grenades to cause damage and then assaults the trenches.
I would like to emphasize that this is a generalization, because situations may vary, so treat this just as a general summary.
10/17 Are there ways to fight this? Yes, there are plenty of ways to counter such assaults with minimal losses, however, I would like to focus on what mistakes should be avoided.
11/17 Since I haven't been to the Bakhmut area myself, I spoke to multiple people from a soldier to a lieutenant colonel instead. To exclude personal anecdotes, I included only the most commonly mentioned issues that hinder the ability of units to defend positions effectively:
12/17 Some units are not allowed to determine armament for themselves based on their needs. Their resources are limited based on regulations, papers, and bureaucracy rather than tactical needs. It doesn’t work from the bottom to the top – mostly from the top to the bottom.
13/17 Insufficient freedom to select defensive positions. Positions are selected by officers in a remote command center, rather than by units on the ground. Officers might avoid challenging ridiculous orders from the CC, fearing repercussions, resulting in a lack of initiative.
14/17 Some senior officers remotely micromanage and intervene in the processes on a platoon, company, and battalion level, often worsening the situation significantly.
15/17 Immobile units limited in weapons, tied to specific positions, deprived of maneuver, and having little leeway in actions are much easier targets for wagnerite cannon-fodder assaults, which are designed to fight against such soviet-styled defenses.
16/17 In the areas where these mistakes were avoided, units performed greatly. While the Ukrainian army improved a lot, it's not always possible to turn a colonel or a general with 30 years of soviet-style experience into a NATO-like commander by performing a 3-month course.
17/17 As Bakhmut experience shows, the system needs to be less top-to-bottom but bottom-to-top. The initiative should be encouraged. Centralized, soviet-style management should be replaced with a NATO-style leadership. To win, we need to be flexible, and adapt soon as possible
Posted on 2/24/23 at 1:01 am to Chromdome35
What exactly could Russia do? Go to war with Ukraine?
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1628876984653688834
https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1628876984653688834
quote:
RU MOD statement on the Transnistria situation:
This post was edited on 2/24/23 at 1:03 am
Posted on 2/24/23 at 5:33 am to LeroyBrown
They are constantly trying to steal technology from US companies.
Posted on 2/24/23 at 5:49 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Respectfully asking, Can we leave the poli board stuff on the poli board?
Respectfully responding: Why isn't THIS thread on the poli-board and not the OT?
Posted on 2/24/23 at 5:53 am to Swamp Angel
quote:admins trying to keep the peace
Respectfully responding: Why isn't THIS thread on the poli-board and not the OT?
They’re doing a better job than Biden
Posted on 2/24/23 at 5:54 am to Swamp Angel
quote:
Respectfully responding: Why isn't THIS thread on the poli-board and not the OT?
because this thread is of purity and virtue, filled by mighty warriors
Posted on 2/24/23 at 6:21 am to Swamp Angel
quote:
Respectfully responding: Why isn't THIS thread on the poli-board and not the OT?
This thread has been on the OT for over a year, outside of 2-3 other posts it has been the only one that stays current. On the PT board there have been 400+ threads that die in a few hours to a couple of days. Over 90% of the posts are not political in nature (at least the majority of the post) and the majority of the ones that are mostly political were precipitated by regular PT posters coming over and interjecting politics (most not all).
War obviously is political at its root but it can be discussed in an apolitical way and it has been in the majority of this thread with the majority of the political discussion being centered around Russian politics and not US politics.
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