re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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really shows the magnitude of Putin's mistake in invading Ukraine. The future version of that map will have Sweden, Finland, and Ukraine all in NATO.

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NATO was formed to defend post-war Western Europe from the Soviet Union. That no longer exists. Russia couldn't whip aTm's Corps of Cadets. Plus, as pointed out, NATO has brought more members into the fold. They have the population, economic and technological means, and military capability to defend themselves. What is the point, exactly, for us to spend our capital to defend those who won't pony up to defend themselves?

ISW Update

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ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, November 13. This report discusses the likely evolution of the war following Ukraine’s operational success in regaining control of western Kherson Oblast. The Russians are not setting conditions for a relaxation of hostilities for the rest of the fall and into the winter but rather are launching a new offensive in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainians will likely use combat power recouped from the liberation of western Kherson to reinforce their ongoing counter-offensive in Luhansk Oblast or to open a new counter-offensive drive elsewhere. This is not the time to slow down aid or press for ceasefires or negotiations, but rather the time to help Ukraine take advantage of its momentum in conditions that favor Kyiv rather than Moscow.

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Ukraine has won an important victory in the campaign that liberated western Kherson Oblast, culminating in the withdrawal of Russian forces completed on November 11

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Ukraine’s success resulted in large part from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (UAF’s) innovative use of the US-provided HIMARS precision rocket system to disrupt Russian supply lines.

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It was clear that the Russians would be unable to defend that lodgment by the time Russian Army General Sergey Surovikin took command of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on October 8.

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Putin likely elevated Surovikin and let him withdraw from western Kherson on condition that he take the rest of Donetsk Oblast using Russian forces recouped from western Kherson as well as newly-arriving mobilized servicemen.

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Russian offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast will intensify in the coming weeks as additional mobilized servicemen arrive along with forces withdrawn from western Kherson

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Russian forces operating in Donetsk Oblast include conventional units of the regular Russian Armed Forces, mobilized servicemen, Wagner Private Military Company troops, BARS (Russian volunteer reserve) formations, militia units from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, soldiers from Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechen units, and volunteer battalions.[16] This bizarre congeries of combat forces will have considerably less effective combat power than would a grouping of regular units of similar size. It is extremely unlikely that Surovikin will be able to forge it into a force able to conduct large-scale offensive mechanized maneuver warfare, particularly since he is not even taking (or being allowed to take) the time to build a coherent strike force before hurling it into the attack. This weird mix of forces will likely make some gains through sheer weight of numbers, but Ukrainian defenders, likely reinforced, will most probably force it to a halt over the next few months not far from its starting points.

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Ukraine will also likely recoup combat power from western Kherson and redeploy it to other areas for both defensive and counter-offensive operations.

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Ukrainian forces have continued to make limited gains in Luhansk Oblast and will likely be able to make more gains if they are reinforced by troops from western Kherson

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A cessation or prolonged slowing of combat operations over the next few months is therefore very unlikely. The Russians are emphatically not attempting to establish and strengthen defensive positions all along the line but are rather renewing offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.[17] The Ukrainians will almost certainly continue their counter-offensive operations already underway. Both sides are already fighting in very muddy conditions. They will not likely stop fighting when winter freezes the ground and makes it even more conducive to large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare. Combat is more likely to intensify than to slacken as temperatures drop.

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Any attempt at a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities at this time would overwhelmingly favor Russia.

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Napoleon famously quipped: Never interrupt your enemy whilst he is in the midst of making a mistake. That aphorism has never been truer—Ukraine and its backers should take advantage of Putin’s error by continuing to press the counter-offensive in circumstances far more favorable to Kyiv than to Moscow.

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Ukraine has by no means liberated the minimum territory essential to its future security and economic survival even with the victory in western Kherson, finally.

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Ukrainians and the West must bend every effort to enabling the liberation of those lands as rapidly as possible before worrying about what lies beyond them. Momentum is an important factor in war. Ukraine has it now. Kyiv and its partners must make the most of it.

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Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 13:

Wagner Group Financer Yevgeny Prigozhin asked the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to open a case against St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov for high treason amid viral footage of Wagner forces murdering one of their own.[19] Prigozhin and Russian nationalist milbloggers largely supported the murder of the alleged traitor.[20]

The Russian military grouping stationed in Belarus continues to generate social tensions among Belarusians.[21]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.[22]

Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate control over the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[23] Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military base in Chaplynka, Kherson Oblast, 50km south of Beryslav on the eastern bank of the Dnipro.[24]

Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the directions of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.[25] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces captured Mayorsk, southeast of Bakhmut.[26]

Russian forces continued routine indirect fire against frontline settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[27] Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City with an Iskander missile.[28]

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the demobilization of mobilized students in Russian-occupied Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, likely as part of an ongoing effort to integrate proxy forces into the Russian Armed Forces.[29]

Russian forces and occupation officials are forcibly mobilizing men in Russian-occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and forcing them to construct trenches and defensive fortifications in the city.[30]

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are withdrawing from the left bank of the Dnipro River and concentrating forces and equipment in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.[31]

Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed an amendment to a draft law that would allow Russian officials to revoke Russian citizenship for disseminating “false” information about the Russian military, participating in extremist or undesirable organizations, or calling for violations of Russian “territorial integrity.”[32]

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War drives innovation. In response to Russia’s use of long range “suicide” drones,

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Ukraine is also about to receive a batch of newly described mobile air defense vehicles.

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Czech company Excalibur army has started producing a Czechnical called "Viktor" for the Ukrainians, apparently primarily to counter loitering munitions/drones.

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These should be able to provide point defense against loitering drones to critical infrastructure without using expensive SAMs.

Solovyov and crew discuss Russian lands being invaded for the first time since WWII and Vlad brings up the issue of the CSTO.

YT

I hope it has at least some sort of targeting mechanism with it and not just an AA gun that relies purely on the shooter to aim manually. Probably not though since drones are tough to lock into anyway. Still a nifty idea though. When all else fails throw lead down range at it and hope it hits something. Downside of those Iranian drones are they are loud and slow so a shooter at least has a fighting chance of getting a hit.

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I am 100 percent on Ukraine's side but jeez, these guys sound like the definition of if he didn't have bad luck he would have no luck at all...

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They would have been much better of running forward with their hands up waving a white flag or underwear, though I imagine their underwear was brown.

I saw an @Solovyov tweet yesterday telling him when he was at the front lines to listen to the Russians screaming out from basements, I guess this sort of info was the genesis.

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 14 November 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Winter will bring a change in conflict conditions for both Russian and Ukrainian forces. Changes to daylight hours, temperature and weather will present unique challenges for fighting soldiers. Any decisions that the Russian General Staff make will be in part informed by the onset of winter.

Daylight will reduce to fewer than 9 hours a day, compared to 15-16 in the height of summer. This results in fewer offensives and more static defensive frontlines. 'Night vision capability is a precious commodity, further exacerbating the unwillingness to fight at night.

The average high temperature will drop from 13 degrees Celsius through September to November, to zero through December to February. Forces lacking in winter weather clothing and accommodation are highly likely to suffer from non-freezing cold injuries. Additionally, the 'golden hour' window in which to save a critically wounded soldier is reduced by approximately half, making the risk of contact with the enemy much greater.

The weather itself is likely to see an increase in rainfall, wind speed and snowfall. Each of these will provide additional challenges to the already low morale of Russian forces, but also present problems for kit maintenance. Basic drills such as weapon cleaning must be adjusted to the conditions and the risk of weapon malfunctions increase.

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So, a globalist in Bush, favored committing American $$$ to protect the world? I'm shocked. What benefit does that enhanced "political economy" impart to the American citizen? Sounds like a nebulous reason to justify shipping American resources elsewhere.

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A vacuum allows for bad actors to gather steam. As for free trade there is no actual such thing which only gets worse with a vacuum. The US fills that vacuum. Would you prefer China to fill that vacuum? Would you prefer that everything costs a lot more for your daily living?

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Because, numbnuts, the US is the one who wants to pay for their defense because the US is the one who built the organization, and has been the primary benefactor. In the 1990s, there is an internal Bush I cable that refers to the possibility of some other Central European nation gaining power in the vacuum of the USSR's downfall, and the US specifically didn't want that to happen, because it's explicit policy has been that it should be the only hegemon. In that regard, our entire political economy is oriented around the fact that we are the country that is the de facto protector of trade around the world.

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Personally I think this line of thinking is outdated. And even if it weren’t, it’s just simply not true anymore, or at best it’s waning. Europe as a whole has completely recovered from the two world wars and is more than capable of protecting the continent from Russia. China is a legit superpower now that can project economic and increasing military might across the globe. The US is simply not the global hegemony it was 30 years ago.