re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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It’s pretty amazing that people can theoretically take in the same data… but spit out wildly different conclusions

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Carrying the water for Putin. I had to stop after the first 15 minutes. The water is going to recede in the river in a day or two. Even the Kremlin admits the defeat east of Kherson and the rout was obvious.

It's amazing how many people bought into this war..what a freaking joke.

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It's amazing how many people bought into this war..what a freaking joke.

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Bought in in what way? Was there some nefarious stuff going on behind the scenes?

Oh look another STDTiger, Stidham, Palmento alter.

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But Crimea and border towns like Belgorod are fair game.

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I get the motivation but sometimes you have to tighten the leash on the dogs of war. Those dogs are only fluent in death and destruction and at some point the statesmen fluent in geopolitics have to take over.

Crimea and the border areas are similar to the Kerch bridge in that for every good reason to take/attack them there are a dozen good reasons not to.

One of the big reasons is the one time costs. These are the costs once paid they can not be directly recouped. Everytime you force more one time costs of war on a country the less leverage you have at the negotiating table. You can only destroy the bridge once and if you do that leverage disappears and Russia will not be willing to give up anything to save a bridge that is destroyed. Leave it intact with the demonstrated ability to destroy it and it is valuable because Russia has not paid the price yet.

At some point you have to forgo targets to move toward peace.

Getting in a tit-for-tat with a nuclear power is probably not the wisest thing to do especially when you do have the direct deterrent available. I think the Donbas is doable but if you start bombing border settlements or drop the Kerch Bridge then Russia will want more blood.

I think Ukraine is well past the point of thinking about negotiation pieces and wants to drive Russia out completely.

That ship sailed when Russian troops were shelling civilians and kidnapping children.

If the Kerch Bridge is being used to re-supply Russian troops that are trying to destroy your country, then it’s a target.

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Disagree. Ukraine should never be satisfied until they are whole again.

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From the heart, I agree but if they try to take and hold Crimea the war will stay hot for many years. Ukraine can do what they are doing as a result of outside help, they help WILL dwindle.

Keep in mind Crimea was the closest vote in the original referendum for Ukraine to become independent. IIRC it was in the range of 56% for. Since 2014 it has become much more Russian with I think the highest percentage of Russian speakers in all of the pre-2014 Ukraine. It will be harder to take and hold.

Whether we like it or not at some point there will have to be negotiations. Crimea is the least likely for Ukraine to be able to take and hold so it is better as a bargaining chip and for it even to be a bargaining chip Ukraine has to have the perceived ability to take it by force. Ukraine has a ticking clock on Western aid.

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Keep in mind Crimea was the closest vote in the original referendum for Ukraine to become independent. IIRC it was in the range of 56% for. Since 2014 it has become much more Russian with I think the highest percentage of Russian speakers in all of the pre-2014 Ukraine. It will be harder to take and hold.

Whether we like it or not at some point there will have to be negotiations. Crimea is the least likely for Ukraine to be able to take and hold so it is better as a bargaining chip and for it even to be a bargaining chip Ukraine has to have the perceived ability to take it by force. Ukraine has a ticking clock on Western aid.

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This is why. From Wikipedia:

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Almost immediately after retaking of Crimea from Axis forces, in May 1944, the USSR State Defense Committee ordered the deportation of all of the Crimean Tatars from Crimea, including the families of Crimean Tatars who had served in the Soviet Army. The deportees were transported in trains and boxcars to Central Asia, primarily to Uzbekistan. The Crimean Tatars lost 18 to 46 percent of their population as a result of the deportations.[15] Starting in 1967, a few were allowed to return and in 1989 the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union condemned the removal of Crimean Tatars from their motherland as inhumane and lawless, but only a tiny percent were able to return before the full right of return became policy in 1989.

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After 2014, the "Russification" of the province began again. There are still hundreds of thousands of Crimean Tatars living in Uzbekistan, Turkey, Romania, etc.

After Ukraine retakes Crimea, all Russians who moved there after 2014 should be expelled. Ukraine's military will need the naval bases, but the rest of the peninsula should become an autonomous province, where Tatar language and culture can thrive.