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re: If UGA flames out in their first game, does that sour a potential run-heavy offense?

Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:08 pm to
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422062 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Did you watch the Ohio St. game?

It reminded me of 2011 when LSU hit the right gear against the right teams and ran em down.

Did you watch the Michigan State game? Michigan had to pass to keep up and lost because of it.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59094 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

The problem is elite teams and elite talent can stop a good running game. You can't stop an elite passing game for an entire game.


Not just elite teams, a good team with a good defense or elite DC can stop it. You have to have overwhelming talent which is increasingly rare.

quote:

And if UGA can't do that this year, when they're clearly the most talented team in a down year of CFB, then what does that say about that philosophy?


I think the fact this is the first year they went undefeated in the regular season is telling. They had Loses to LSU in 2018 USCe 2019
Posted by BayouBlogger
Left Coast
Member since Aug 2015
1025 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

Did you watch the Michigan State game? Michigan had to pass to keep up and lost because of it.



You brought up the scenario of Georgia losing. If Michigan can’t throw to keep up and they’re not winning on the ground, how do they win?
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59094 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

Did you watch the Michigan State game? Michigan had to pass to keep up and lost because of it.


Michigan was ahead or tied until the very end, they did throw for 400 yards. They got hosed on a couple of calls but really lost because they couldn’t stop Walker

Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422062 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

If Michigan can’t throw to keep up and they’re not winning on the ground, how do they win?

They can't and lose to the vastly more talented team.

UM beating UGA is a huge upset and would have been an insane one 2 weeks ago.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

I just fear that it's going to take a few years for him to realize that his run heavy preference isn't going to cut it.


tf

since when is brian kelly run-heavy lol

theyve also had consistently top 25 offenses over the last 5 years. not saying theyve been "elite" but the QB potential was never really high

an elite QB talent makes all the difference in college football and can turn hideous OCs into geniuses
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 3:45 pm to
BKs slight preference towards the run is because the OL talent has been near the best in college football while at the same time, the QB potential is really really average

youre not going to be pass heavy if you literally do not have a QB that can pass

im not even sure ian book can throw it 40 yards down the field

kizer
wimbush
rees
book
coan

you can not be "pass heavy" with this type of player

zaire, maybe? but thats still pushing the envelope
This post was edited on 12/10/21 at 3:48 pm
Posted by Tigertown in ATL
Georgia foothills
Member since Sep 2009
29177 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 6:21 pm to
quote:

blame UGA’s issues on JT Daniels being hurt and Kirby Smart being stubborn af


Their issues are that they have a Division III qb and AL has the player of the year. Nothing else.
But AL always has the best players at every position so what else is new.
Posted by TigerDawg1212
Member since Sep 2021
506 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 8:38 pm to
quote:

Literally the same stuff was said about me re: Les for about 10 years. Now it's commonly accepted.


I can't prove you wrong because I was on other LSU fansites back then, but heavy, heavy, heavy doubt. Every other LSU fansite was bitching about how Miles never threw the ball his entire tenure. I don't see why tigerdroppings would be different. If you truly got pushback for this, then you were almost assuredly being way less reasonable than you are saying right now.

quote:

It's by passing first and allowing that to open up the running game.


This is the whole crux of your argument and is just completely and utterly dead wrong. When I think modern, high powered offense, I think Lincoln Riley and Ryan Day. Both of them are run first guys who open up the passing game with power spread running. The systems are very dissimilar outside of that. Whether or not you run to set up the pass or vice versa literally does not matter. In a vacuum it's preferable to run to set up the pass because running will more consistently get you a significantly positive play because fewer people need to not frick up to make a run work/running back decision making is significantly easier than QB decision making in most systems, but that's not a big enough difference to get worked up about.

The whole point of "setting up" plays is that the defense can't sell out against anything because you could do anything on that particular play. Run up the middle, run to the outside, medium pass over the middle, homerun pass down field, quick screen, etc. Balance is what actually matters. This is literally the whole secret sauce of UGA's defense that was killing everyone. The LBers freeze at the snap to take away the "P" in the RPO on first down while still being close enough to their gap to get the tackle in the gap for a less than 2 yard gain. Then you're behind schedule and are forced to throw which is much easier to defend against. If you watch UGA play, they actually rarely get stops when the opposing offense has a successful first down play and is still on schedule second down. Not always of course, but the entire defense is literally designed to make opposing offenses one dimensional, and it's one of the best defenses college football has ever seen.

And I can't remember if this was you or someone else, but no, Denbrock does not run 3 TE sets. Maybe the wildcat goalline package has 3, I never counted because it's the wildcat, but that's the wildcat if it does. He spends most of his time in 12 or 11. You're straight up lying when you say he runs 3 TE sets. He has a very simple system which can be a blessing and a curse depending on details of how you introduce wrinkles, but it's very modern.
This post was edited on 12/10/21 at 8:38 pm
Posted by shinerfan
Duckworld(Earth-616)
Member since Sep 2009
22202 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 8:54 pm to
quote:

Miles “incompetence” was running an offense that was outdated and ineffective




That offence doesn't have to be run/run/play-action/punt. You can run that same system with more versatile playcalling than we saw with Les. And I'm not really hoping for a return to it, I'm just saying that it can and has been run far more effectively with better playcalling.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9298 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 10:30 pm to
quote:

As for running a balanced offense, “pass-first” or “run-first” is meaningless unless you are talking about Air Raid offenses on one side or Michigan and UCLA on the other. It’s being able to run or pass reliably and efficiently out of any formation that you run, on any down, and from any location on the field. Any offense reliant on doing one thing “first” is susceptible to predictability and to being shut down by a great defense with the right gameplan.

I 100% agree with this. I think this whole “run first” vs. “pass first” thing is a huge oversimplification - especially given the nature of modern spread offenses. Sure, the difference is obvious when you compare a Miles/Cameron toss dive offense to the Mike Leach air raid. But those are the extremes.

I’ve seen Lane Kiffin mentioned several times in this thread. Let’s look at his SEC offenses:
- 2014 Alabama: 56% of plays and 43% of yards were rushes.
- 2015 Alabama: 59% of plays and 47% of yards were rushes. Derrick Henry wins Heisman Trophy.
- 2016 Alabama: 61% of plays and 54% of yards were rushes.
- 2020 Ole Miss: 58% of plays and 38% of yards were rushes.
- 2021 Ole Miss: 58% of plays and 44% of yards were rushes.

Lane’s offenses are pretty run heavy compared to what we’ve seen at LSU the last few years. OP also mentioned Ohio State as an example of a modern, pass-first offense. Here’s what the rushing game accounted for at OSU for the past few years:
- 2016 (Meyer): 58% of plays, 54% of yards
- 2017 (Meyer): 57% of plays, 48% of yards
- 2018 (Meyer): 50% of plays, 33% of yards
- 2019 (Day): 63% of plays, 50% of yards
- 2020 (Day): 60% of plays, 49% of yards
- 2021 (Day): 47% of plays, 34% of yards

Ironically (in the context of this thread), 2021 is the first year in many that they haven’t been at least 50% rush, and also the first year since 2016 that they haven’t won the Big 10.

Contrast those numbers with LSU’s rushing contribution:
- 2018: 59% of plays, 43% of yards
- 2019: 47% of plays, 29% of yards
- 2020: 46% of plays, 28% of yards
- 2021: 49% of plays, 29% of yards

LSU’s 2019 success in a pass-heavy offense was not indicative of the current state of college football. That offense was the exception, not the rule.

It’s not about “running to open the pass” or “passing to open the run.” It’s about posing a credible threat to do either, on any down. That’s the entire reason the RPO works. Asking whether it’s the pass option that opens the run or the run option that opens the pass is a matter of semantics. The defense might respect either the run or pass more because the offense is more proficient in one of those areas but that’s a matter of proficiency, not philosophy.

The most effective modern offenses (again, with the exception of LSU in 2019) aren’t run first or pass first, they’re balanced and unpredictable.
Posted by GroundPati
Winchester Tn
Member since Jan 2021
381 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 10:39 pm to
about blank …. I feel about your take buddy
Posted by geauxpurple
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2014
12282 posts
Posted on 12/10/21 at 11:23 pm to
The only thing that means is that Georgia chokes every time they play a game that means anything.
Posted by WaterLink
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2015
17222 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 3:20 am to
Michigan has a higher run % than Georgia, so why would Michigan winning the game be a detriment to a run heavy offense's success in today's era? Honestly both of them being in the playoff is already a showing that a run heavy offense can succeed. In fact 3/4 teams in the playoffs run more than pass. The whole premise behind this thread is stupid.
This post was edited on 12/11/21 at 4:30 am
Posted by des4271
Member since Oct 2014
4028 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 5:59 am to
The question to ask yourself is, what teams have won championships lately and did that team have a prolific QB and passing game? Burrow, Lawrence and Tua come to mind. That’s why a run heavy offense isn’t a good idea, just like it wasn’t a good idea for Kirby not to blitz against Bama, you have to be proficient in the passing game nowadays to win championships.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422062 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 8:19 am to
quote:

This is literally the whole secret sauce of UGA's defense that was killing everyone.

UGA's defense appears to be a paper tiger that feasted on an absolutely shitty schedule. They've been tested once and failed.

They have a really good D but not some elite/historic D

quote:

but the entire defense is literally designed to make opposing offenses one dimensional,

Much easier to do when you face crappy offenses all year long like Clemson or the SEC East
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422062 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 8:24 am to
quote:

That’s the entire reason the RPO works. Asking whether it’s the pass option that opens the run or the run option that opens the pass is a matter of semantics. The defense might respect either the run or pass more because the offense is more proficient in one of those areas but that’s a matter of proficiency, not philosophy.

The RPO is basically a modern play action. It's effectively a play action but with the ability to actually run and not just be a fake.

Play action (across the board) is always effective, whether you are running well or not. NFL teams are using play action to open lanes for the running game. It's a legit 180 philosophically from traditional football thought.

If the RPO is making the run read the best option, that's because the pass threat is leaving the defense exposed to the run. You will only achieve this with the threat of your passing concepts. The amount you do run/pass isn't really this discussion. Miles/Cam could have thrown it 85% of the time and it would have been worse because the fundamentals and philosophy behind the playcalls was shite and still based in a run-first mindset.

I don't think anyone in this thread is saying not to run the ball. The people who agree with me are saying that you pass to set up the run. If the D sells out to stop the pass, I'm fine with running it 100% of the time as long as the output is efficient.
Posted by P bean
br
Member since Dec 2006
4059 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 8:30 am to
Enjoy your down votes
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422062 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 8:33 am to
I don't think I've ever looked at my up/down votes
Posted by Festus
With Skillet
Member since Nov 2009
84989 posts
Posted on 12/11/21 at 9:27 am to
IMO, it’s all about balance. And when I say balance, I don’t mean 50/50 pass/run. I mean the ability to do either of them well.

If a DC decides he’s not going to let us beat them with the pass, and shows 3 man fronts dropping 8 into coverage, I’m gonna pound the ball until they relent. If they put 8 in the box, I’m spreading and going air raid. And that may go back and forth all game.

So the key is not being pass heavy, or run heavy. It’s being able to take what the D gives you. And you have to do both well. So when I note that BK has a history of having a plethora of giant, mobile, disciplined OL, knowing they can run and pass block, I get excited.

Great coaches field teams that do both well, depending on what the defense gives them. Because if you can’t do one well, you’ll be forced to depend on the other for the majority of plays. And become one dimensional.

I don’t want to watch a team force “pass heavy” against a team that’s playing the pass. An innovative offense isn’t simply pass heavy. It’s the ability to adjust and do both well, despite the ratio numbers.
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