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Registered on:9/7/2021
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quote:

Would raise an eyebrow if they weren't highly thought of and not from a major conference. To say there aren't 5-10 good players on Purdue out of 85 is a stretch.


Not really. You are seriously underestimating how bad this Purdue team is. 3 SEC starting caliber players would make Purdue a much better team than they actually were. There might be one or two who are legit, but this team would have been bad in FCS.

And no, I don't care about ON3 rankings. They have more than proven to be useless for the transfer portal. Which makes sense because they have like 24 hours to figure it out and can't see any in person work outs in most cases.
I'm not going to pretend to have deeply studied his game, but Purdue is one of the worst teams in FBS and definitely the worst P4 team. Color me skeptical that anybody on that team is worth taking unless they're a super raw physical specimen. This better not be what CBK meant when he said he was going to hit the portal hard.
quote:

Honest question, cause I don't follow recruiting as closely as some of y'all, Is there really a difference between the 4th ranked class and the 7th? The 6th and the 10th?


It really depends a lot on the given year. This year there's a big gap after 5 with 6 to 10 being pretty similar before another significant gap. It's more typical for the gap to be after 3 with the next gap being somewhere in the 7-10 range.
quote:

the recruits will sort itself out.


Based off of what exactly? Our decommit class is elite. Apparently we're the favorites to give FSU their last swirly of the year which is nice I guess, but "sorting itself out" to date has been getting LSU ~.500 in the SEC talent, and that's by far the mode recruiting outcome yet again this year.
I guess this is a nice consolation prize if it happens, but it sure feels like spending 3x as much for an older Phillips...

re: This recruiting class

Posted by TigerDawg1212 on 12/3/24 at 10:49 am to
quote:

You keep saying this but it simply isn’t true. BK isn’t withholding funds for kids. We offer great packages and they keep getting final offers after our final offers.


Then explain all of the flips after we lost Underwood. That should have secured everybody else because we could have given all of these 5 stars another 400k a year while still being ahead financially, and yet they all flipped last second.
The portal is way more expensive. Maybe this is enough of a beating that it will spur donations, but you guys shouldn't hold your breath. There are three types of players in the portal.

1. G5 3 stars who are future NFL players. Ideally you get these guys, but they're not very common.

2. Great players going for the highest bidder. We will never be consistently the highest bidder. Especially for non QBs where people will gladly roster multiple elite players. Texas, A&M, UGA, Oregon, and Ohio State simply have more money than we do. We can maybe overpay for singular guys here vs them, but we're never building a team out of them.

3. Players who were pushed off their team for one reason or another. This is the vast majority of portal players. They don't usually work out and were not getting the playing time "they deserve" for a reason.
quote:

Nope as much as this sucks. I don’t miss that at all. That hurt way more.


I dunno. It feels pretty much exactly the same to me. Probably because we all knew it was the exact same thing happening. Some 5 star is all LSU until 11 PM the day before signing day where he's magically going to Bama and starts driving Dodge Chargers around.
quote:

It’s terrifying that a billionaire from Silicon Valley or god forbid a Saudi prince comes in and gives a billion to a collective. You might actually see one program never lose.


We're about to test that theory. That's exactly what happened with Underwood. I guess we'll see how long Ellison decides he actually likes his current wife, but for now he's going to straight up drop bags to steal several recruits.

re: Kade Phillips is gone

Posted by TigerDawg1212 on 12/3/24 at 10:02 am to
quote:

Who the coach is won’t matter anymore, the talent level on our roster will continue to drop well below standard and we won’t be able to compete for anything more than 7-9 win seasons.


You're going to get massacred, but for what it's worth, you're completely right. These have simply not been classes that can reasonably win national championships. Tennessee gets away with it because they run a gimmick offense that teams see 0 to 1 times a year, and even then Georgia has pretty clearly shown what happens there if your defense is simply better than the guys in front of them vs that offense. I'm not entirely sure on who Tennessee and Florida have their eyes on, but they're close enough to us after the two sure thing flips that LSU can easily be the bottom half of the conference this year.

Brian Kelly needs to do something. This current approach of recruiting like the 8th best team (but really the class is equal to everyone's from ~6 to ~15) and then getting jack shite in the portal will never work. Justin Jeffersons don't grow on trees. Either do whatever it takes to actually hold onto 5 stars, or completely change the strategy, recruit lousiana, recruit the trenches, and use the portal for everything else. I'd prefer recruiting, it sure seems to work better from what we've seen so far, but bottom line is if the last 3 classes are the new norm, then South Carolina's year this year is going to be the future "good year" for LSU. You can't be middle of conference talented and expect to not lose 3+ conference games.
quote:

#2 in sacks at LSU despite being a rotational DT 5.5


That just tells me that we pretty desperately need a good edge. I'm personally not really a believer in good trench players being available in the portal, but if you're not a Suh where you're crowned the first non QB taken multiple years out of the draft dominant, your DT should not be getting appreciable amount of sacks in modern defenses. That means you're basically always only getting coverage sacks. The DTs being the relative strength of the line is also actively a bad thing. It's obviously better to have good players than to not have good players, but it's just not a very important position in college where you'll play maybe 1 team that isn't 90% shotgun. You don't need world beaters to run stuff those anemic run concepts. Also see Michigan not being very good with both of their DTs being first rounders.
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Is it though? Because almost every team in the league is capable of beating anyone in the league, it makes the whole conference bad? I don't really see it that way.


Yes. With the amount of talent in the US, extreme parity almost always means nobody is good.

You can also take a look at your favorite efficiency metrics and the SEC is going to be as bad as it's been since the 2000s when those weren't really commonplace.
quote:


Larry paying Bryce 12 million dollars is akin to a Millionaire spending 50 dollars. There's plenty to criticize BK about, but there was nothing that could've gotten this done.


Yeah, the annoying/concerning thing is that apparently Larry Ellison cares about Michigan football, and that means the rest of us are screwed because he can singlehandedly outspend the combined efforts of everybody else.
quote:

The issue going in this route is that when a recruit proves himself he will see the money available and likely get offered big NIL to transfer.


No, the issue with it is that it doesn't fricking work. Just look at all those times Wisconsin beat Ohio State and one of OU/Texas didn't win the big 12. Oh wait...

Also, what those schools really do is recruit the character concerns and hope they don't frick up too bad while they're there.
Yes. I'll be very surprised if this team beats OU. It's a terrible matchup for us. Their defense is too good for "move between the 20s, have terrible redzone offense, go for it on 4th down and not convert because the redzone offense is terrible" to work, and the only thing they're okay at offense, inside zone read, is our defensive achilles heel. Which is wild because that is probably the easiest thing in modern college football to stop, but here we are...

re: Is Kelly really that bad?

Posted by TigerDawg1212 on 11/26/24 at 10:28 am to
Fine, if you're really insistent that it's some "gotcha" that people can't be assed to open up Sportsreference.

1. Kirby.

2. Ryan Day.

3. Dabo Swinney

4. Sark.

5. Dan Lanning.

6. Josh Heupel.

7. Lane Kiffin.

8. James Franklin.

9. Mike Gundy.

10. Shane Beamer.

11. Kyle Whittingham.

Not counting people who sure seem better but don't have the sample size yet in Curt Cignetti, Kalen Deboer, and Mike Elko. You'll also notice that 5 of those coaches are in the SEC.

It's year 3 and the the team is a worse version of the team he fielded after having 39 scholarship players. In a year that in retrospect should have been up for grabs because everybody not named Ohio State is pretty bad. Next year is looking fringe bowl eligible at the moment because all the bright spots are leaving and we're nearly a fringe bowl eligible team this year.

re: Is Kelly really that bad?

Posted by TigerDawg1212 on 11/26/24 at 9:58 am to
quote:

This is what I hate about wins like this.

We beat Vandy and suddenly people wanna act like “you know what, he’s pretty good”

That doesn’t change the fact he’s never prepared for big games, is an excuse machine, and doesn’t have us anywhere near where we’d thought we’d be in year 3


It's also frickin Vandy. Yes, they're not one of the worst teams in FBS football like they usually are this year, but they're not actually good. The fact that we're happy about beating a barely bowl eligible team that's under .500 in conference play just shows how far the team has fallen.
It's definitely not elite. If we can retain the dudes committed (though several are by all indications also gone already) this is still a decent class, but having a class of this caliber 4x is not anything more than a first round exit playoff team.
Obviously, but this is just Michigan/ECU wishcasting. Top end P5 coordinator jobs are better jobs than G5 head coaching jobs in 2025. They have the same pay but the coordinator job has better job growth and more stability.
It's a snapping and holder problem. Not a kicker problem. Sadly I think we're kind of just stuck with it. Brian Kelly historically has had poor special teams play because he doesn't devote much practice to it, and he clearly hasn't changed anything there at LSU.
quote:

The area around the University of Miami makes the area between I-10 and LSU look desirable. Just saying


What? Coral Gables is rich and gorgeous. You have to be talking about very specific neighborhoods to find anywhere that nice in Louisiana. That's like a third of the reason why Miami has so much trouble filling a stadium whenever they're not elite. The school itself is heavily international and NYC finance transplants, the area its around is full of yuppies and transplants because nobody else can afford it, and between the two there's not much ownership of the university in Miami.

I don't think Pickett is decommiting, but "the area sucks and you have to go to Wynnewood to go clubbing" is not why he's not going to end up at Miami.