Several items of note – TLDR warning up front for those of you who aren’t interesting in riding on the Train of Truth for a couple of minutes.
1. As noted previously, “Bama can’t play itself.”
2. Schedules are set years in advance. Some teams you can expect will be good five or six years from now… others not so much. There is a lot of unpredictable variability here. Take Louisville for this opener – Louisville had a Heisman Trophy QB – who only played three full years. They would be a top 20 team with Jackson still there. Or better. That's not something you could predict several years ago when this game was set.
3. Teams with expensive stadiums MUST – for economic reasons – fill their stadium as much as possible. Any SEC team will have four guaranteed home conference games as part of home-and-away’s – for Alabama, these include teams from the toughest division in college football (SEC West) and additional perm/rotating teams from the SEC East. The philosophy for the remaining four opportunities are to schedule a couple of directional schools for guaranteed cupcake home dates. Then out of the remaining two, one will almost always be a mid-tier team that ought to be a win 90% of the time – they are hungry to move up so they play anybody anywhere, anytime, and are considered road warriors (think Southerm Miss, East Carolina, Boise St, etc.) The remaining game will try to be scheduled with a Power 5 conference team either as a home-and-away or as a “kickoff” game at a neutral site. This formula will get you 7, maybe 8 home games. Which are important to your winning record and also your stadium/local town’s economy. Check out just about any major program… they all follow this formula if they can get away with it – at least every upper tier power 5 team. This year, Alabama has 7 home games.
4. Sometimes, the lower tier games really are determined by the available schedule flexibility of other teams. Say in March, a team drops out of a contracted game to be played that November. It’s rare, but it does happen. It’s hard to get a Notre Dame to fill that empty slot on a one-off basis. The Citadel and Arkansas St are a lot more flexible. And they get paid well for coming here to play.
5. Schedule strength constantly shifts during the season as teams do well or worse. For example, Bama’s schedule SHOULD show up as a bit light until later in the season, where they historically play a 4 out of 5 game stretch with really tough opponents.
6. It’s hard to hit a moving target. But… you can look back and see how it all ended up at the end. I fully understand that Bama usually gets a SoS bump at the end of the year with the playoff games, but then again, those were games that they had to play against similarly tough opponents – and Alabama has gone 6-1 in those extra playoff matchups. Here’s the way Alabama’s Strength of Schedule ended up over the last ten years – the Sagarin ratings are consistent in methodology and are readily available. You can look up a different system if you like, it will turn out close to being the same. Let’s look at the Saban era:
Year final Sagarin ranking final strength of schedule ranking
2007 31 30
2008 6 28
2009 1 2
2010 5 14
2011 1 15
2013 3 39
2014 3 2
2015 1 1
2016 2 1
2017 1 27
Alabama teams are always in the top side of the SoS ratings – if not at the very top. I don’t see anything over this time frame that wouldn’t be in the top third or quarter - over the last ten years, the average rating has been 15.9 on the strength of schedule. IMHO that’s actually very strong – there are very few teams who could say they have played tougher overall schedules over the same time decade.
7. Similarly, over that same time frame, the out of conference games has been:
Year OOC opponents
2007 W. Carolina, Florida St., Houston, Louisiana Monroe
2008 Clemson (9), Tulane, W. Kentucky, Arkansas St., Utah
2009 Virginia Tech (7), Florida Int., N. Texas, Chattanooga
2010 San Jose St., Penn St (18), Duke, Georgia St.
2011 Kent St., Penn St (23), N. Texas, Ga. Southern
2012 Michigan (8), W. Kentucky, Fla Atlantic, W. Carolina
2013 Virginia Tech, Colorado St., Georgia St., Chattanooga
2014 West Virginia, Fla Atlantic., Southern Miss, W. Carolina
2015 Wisconsin (20), Mid Tenn St., Louisiana Monroe, Charleston Southern
2016 USC (20), W. Kentucky, Kent St., Chattanooga
2017 Florida St (3), Fresno St., Colorado St., Mercer
That list includes a power 5 member every year.
The bottom line is that most of these guys find the schedule to be a convenient scapegoat – without examining the facts behind the system. I sorta of expect this lazy approach from Brando- he’s NEVER liked Bama. But I’m disappointed in Klatt, he’s normally a better analyst than this. JMHO.