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How high can mid size EPL clubs really go?
Posted on 4/27/14 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 8:34 pm
No club outside City, ManU, Arsenal, Liverpool or Chelsea have qualified for the Champions League in 7 years with the sole exception of Spurs, who only did it once and Everton would have been bumped out that year under the current rules, which would push this trend back even farther.
All told: ManU, Liverpool, City, Chelsea and Arsenal have claimed 52 of 57 Champions League spots since 1998 while Newcastle (3) and Leeds (2) are the only clubs to have broken the trend more than once since the European ban was lifted on English clubs in 1992.
With financial fair play consolidating the position of the big money clubs is there any reason to think that say Aston Villa, even with a great manager, could crack that level regardless of what moves they make? That's the one thing that's tough about watching from an American sports fan's POV where every team has at least some hope of eventual upward mobility if they hire a Sam Presti as GM or a Gregg Popovich as coach or whatever the case may be.
Even compared to the early 2000's when Leeds and Newcastle made CL appearances it seems like the inequality between clubs is becoming more and more pronounced. And with these FFP rules fans don't even have the hope of angel investors coming in and buying high end talent like we've seen with City and PSG among others.
All told: ManU, Liverpool, City, Chelsea and Arsenal have claimed 52 of 57 Champions League spots since 1998 while Newcastle (3) and Leeds (2) are the only clubs to have broken the trend more than once since the European ban was lifted on English clubs in 1992.
With financial fair play consolidating the position of the big money clubs is there any reason to think that say Aston Villa, even with a great manager, could crack that level regardless of what moves they make? That's the one thing that's tough about watching from an American sports fan's POV where every team has at least some hope of eventual upward mobility if they hire a Sam Presti as GM or a Gregg Popovich as coach or whatever the case may be.
Even compared to the early 2000's when Leeds and Newcastle made CL appearances it seems like the inequality between clubs is becoming more and more pronounced. And with these FFP rules fans don't even have the hope of angel investors coming in and buying high end talent like we've seen with City and PSG among others.
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 9:03 pm
6
Posted on 4/27/14 at 8:37 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
is there any reason to think that say Aston Villa, even with a great manager, could crack that level regardless of what moves they make?
the problem is that England doesn't have enough domestic talent to really give you a shot at building a title team via academy/youth players. if an English club could amass an army of young talent, like BvB recently, sure...but i think it's unlikely
sustained success is all but impossible, though
Posted on 4/27/14 at 8:48 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
No club outside City, ManU, Spurs, Liverpool or Chelsea have qualified for the Champions League in 7 years
ARSENAL FANS INCOMING
Posted on 4/27/14 at 9:00 pm to WarSlamEagle
edited 
Posted on 4/27/14 at 9:21 pm to Draconian Sanctions
Not very high... But at least we seem to be beating Newcastle on the reg these days and may get another crack at it next year if this keeps up. 
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 9:31 pm to St Augustine
quote:
How high can mid size EPL clubs really go?
Liverpool might win the league, so pretty high I guess?
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:06 pm to Draconian Sanctions
To be fair, Tottenham would have made it after the 11/12 season, but Chelsea fricked them by winning it that year.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:11 pm to Sophandros
Go read Soccernomics. This point is discussed thoroughly. In short, the big clubs are always going to dominate and it is an aspect of the sport that isn't going to change.
The only thing that can change it is an influx of money where you become one of the big clubs.
For the billionaires of the world, the barriers to entry are actually quite low as long as they are willing to open up the pocket book and make it rain, rain, rain.
The only thing that can change it is an influx of money where you become one of the big clubs.
For the billionaires of the world, the barriers to entry are actually quite low as long as they are willing to open up the pocket book and make it rain, rain, rain.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:19 pm to lynxcat
Honestly if Southhampton and Everton can keep their teams intact, which is a huge if, next year Man City, Man U, Everton, Pool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, Everton, and Southampton will all have at least dark horse CL aspirations at the start of the season. That's 9 out of 20 teams in the league. Obviously if a couple of the dark horses stumble early that number could be down to 5 or 6 realistic contenders by November but still, pretty competitive. If you count the bottom six teams as relegation battlers and teams that bounce back and forth between promotion and relegation, you're really only talking 4 or 5 teams stuck in that mid table zone
This post was edited on 4/27/14 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:21 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
edited
Nice. Arsenal just sticks around the fringes and qualifies for the knock outs. In the round of 16 we have drawn Barca, Bayern and Bayern. Talk about bad luck.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:22 pm to tigerfan88
quote:
Honestly if Southhampton and Everton can keep their teams intact, which is a huge if, next year Man City, Man U, Everton, Pool, Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea, Everton, and Southampton will all have at least dark horse CL aspirations at the start of the season. That's 9 out of 20 teams in the league. Obviously if a couple of the dark horses stumble early that number could be down to 5 or 6 realistic contenders by November but still.
No way Southampton keeps the top tier of the squad.
Even with 6 very good teams in the league, there is a tremendous amount of competition. The NBA rarely ever has that large of a percentage of the teams in the league that have a legitimate shot at winning the title. By default more are going to have a chance at the playoffs because they are 16 teams and only 4 CL spots.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:42 pm to lynxcat
Everton could have a decent shot at being a top 4 contender if they can keep Lukaku and maybe bring on a couple more guys.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:43 pm to itawambadog
they have to keep lukaku and defelou, which is a tall order (and impossible to sustain long term)
Posted on 4/27/14 at 10:54 pm to SlowFlowPro
A mid-table team needs a lot of luck. A great manager, a deep enough team or no major injuries, and either a great player who the big teams haven't picked up or good players who have played together long enough to be unbeatable.
Southampton have a major shot with the production line they have. I think it with Crewe Alexandria is the best youth academy in England in terms of producing players for the first team. Pochettino is a good coach. Who knows where they would be if Gaston Ramirez and Danny Osvaldo worked out? Those are two solid players on paper that could push them to the next level. Alas I doubt that team can last another year before being broken apart.
Southampton have a major shot with the production line they have. I think it with Crewe Alexandria is the best youth academy in England in terms of producing players for the first team. Pochettino is a good coach. Who knows where they would be if Gaston Ramirez and Danny Osvaldo worked out? Those are two solid players on paper that could push them to the next level. Alas I doubt that team can last another year before being broken apart.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:05 pm to lynxcat
quote:
Even with 6 very good teams in the league, there is a tremendous amount of competition. The NBA rarely ever has that large of a percentage of the teams in the league that have a legitimate shot at winning the title.
sure but in the NBA the identity of those teams changes. Every team feels like with a little luck and a strong organization, they too can be up at that level. That's the difference and that's what this thread is all about.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:06 pm to Sophandros
quote:
To be fair, Tottenham would have made it after the 11/12 season, but Chelsea fricked them by winning it that year.
Eh, Chelsea didn't make the rule. UEFA and their dumb arse rule fricked Spurs that year.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:14 pm to GeauxColonels
quote:
Eh, Chelsea didn't make the rule. UEFA and their dumb arse rule fricked Spurs that year.
All started with Liverpool though when they won the Champions League and finished like 6th or 7th in the EPL.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:35 pm to itawambadog
The balance at the top of the EPL is more skewed by Chelsea and Man City having had billionaires fund them. Now, there's not the space there is in other leagues for clubs with less funding to make a great run and get a CL spot when traditional powers have bad spells.
I think FFP won't have quite the teeth some think but it does seem to prevent a, say, Southampton from paying all their young talent to keep them and also adding a few world class players even if the owner would want to and competing for a title.
I think FFP won't have quite the teeth some think but it does seem to prevent a, say, Southampton from paying all their young talent to keep them and also adding a few world class players even if the owner would want to and competing for a title.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:39 pm to itawambadog
quote:
All started with Liverpool though when they won the Champions League and finished like 6th or 7th in the EPL.
Real Madrid (2000) and Liverpool (2005) finished outside of the top 4 (5th place) the years they won the Champions League.
Posted on 4/27/14 at 11:48 pm to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
sure but in the NBA the identity of those teams changes. Every team feels like with a little luck and a strong organization, they too can be up at that level. That's the difference and that's what this thread is all about.
I don't know if it is necessarily a bad thing or not. The sports are organized in completely different ways that makes each unique.
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