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Started By
Message
re: Why is Trump trending so badly in the betting odds?
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:02 pm to RFK
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:02 pm to RFK
Yep. I want Trump to win. I mean a Harris presidency will be a disaster in so many ways...
But the truth is in the BG states where he must win he's not doing as well as he should be in a year when the economy blows and the border is out of control. Should be a layup for him especially considering his opponent...but it's not.
It is what it is. Hopefully he pulls it out but he is currently in trouble.
Needs to focus on the only 2 things that matter: the economy and the border. That's it.
But the truth is in the BG states where he must win he's not doing as well as he should be in a year when the economy blows and the border is out of control. Should be a layup for him especially considering his opponent...but it's not.
It is what it is. Hopefully he pulls it out but he is currently in trouble.
Needs to focus on the only 2 things that matter: the economy and the border. That's it.
2
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:07 pm to Draco Malfoy
quote:
I’m not trolling and I’m a huge Trump fan. I literally posted the updated odds
Average betting odds are about 52-46
Now compare that to 2016 and 2020
Some of y’all don’t remember how bad things looked back then. Trump is greatly out-performing 2016 and 2020.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:09 pm to The Boat
quote:
No she hasn’t. Some shitty quality polls came out after the debate showing her up 5. The thing is those polls already had her up 5 before the debate. There was no polling bump if the lead is the same after the debate.
Idk what all Silver uses in his models but Trump has gone from 64% to 48% probability since the debate.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:10 pm to Vandergriff
quote:
But the truth is in the BG states where he must win he's not doing as well as he should be in a year when the economy blows and the border is out of control. Should be a layup for him especially considering his opponent...but it's not.
Mainstream poll after mainstream poll has Trump within the MOE and in much better position than 16 or 20.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:14 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
Idk what all Silver uses in his models but Trump has gone from 64% to 48% probability since the debate.
Models aren’t polls. Nate jizzed over a few polls showing Kamala up in PA despite the last four polls from PA showing Trump winning or tied.
She has a commanding 1 point average lead in PA. Hillary and Biden were up 6.6 and 4 on Trump in PA on this date.
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:36 pm to Jake88
quote:
quote:How many people actually win at gambling
All of them, just ask.
Haaaaa
You win
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:38 pm to Rohan Gravy
She has zero hope of winning our country is not that stupid
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:41 pm to sabanisarustedspoke
Please explain how the house makes 10 points on all bets?
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:43 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:Trump was never ahead on Predictit (overtaken now in popularity by Polymarket) until the night of the election. Yes, you can still bet as results are coming in.
That is bad because betting odds historically slant Republican if my memory is correct
He surged ahead until I went asleep at midnight and we all know what happened next.
I follow this trend multiple times a day. There is no “smart money” on this right now. It’s ALL poll driven.
CNN very recently did a segment that took the current polls, adjusted for the level of poll misses in 2020 and he lands at 312 electoral.
I am very bullish on a Trump victory. We have historical data from 2 elections that both vastly underpolled Trumps support. They have not magically figured this out.
On one note, the popular poll aggregators that predict the outcome assign “high quality polls” and historical accuracy has nothing to do with it. Atlas, Rasmussen and Trafalgor were the best pollsters in 2020 and are shite on by the experts. Nate Silver adds some “fundamentals” that are favorable to Trump but weighs some really bad historical polling firms very highly.
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 9:47 pm
Posted on 9/20/24 at 9:46 pm to Draco Malfoy
I don’t really care about betting odds in this case. They have billions to spend and could easily manipulate the lines.
To be clear, I don’t consider betting lines for a political candidate a fair market.
To be clear, I don’t consider betting lines for a political candidate a fair market.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:24 pm to Vandergriff
quote:
he's not doing as well as he should be in a year when the economy blows and the border is out of control. Should be a layup for him especially considering his opponent...but it's not.
Turns out abortion creates a lot of single issue voters.
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:33 pm to NashvilleTider
Oh my sweet summer child.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:35 pm to Captain Rumbeard
quote:
Probably because there's a decent chance of him getting assassinated before he can '
This. The chances of that happening are baked into the current odds.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:40 pm to Draco Malfoy
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. sleep well sweet prince. Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:56 pm to Draco Malfoy
Go back to your handlers…
Posted on 9/21/24 at 1:22 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
quote:
Now I already have the preconceived notion baked in that no matter how many votes Trump gets they’re going to find enough Kamala votes to convince everyone she won.
This is a likely explanation. That a lot of Trump supporters, who would otherwise bet on him, are skeptical of the steal.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 2:21 am to Penrod
There is no better example of a feaux intellectual than you. You aren’t smart. You aren’t educated. Yet you come on here daily and pretend you are. If I could buy you for what you are actually worth and sell you for what you think you’re worth I’d be a rich man.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 3:54 am to PrayingMantis
quote:
He won the debate
Posted on 9/21/24 at 6:07 am to Draco Malfoy
There are many here that think Trump will win in a “Landslide”.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 6:40 am to DallasTiger11
quote:
She has been rising in the polls.
How do you raise in the polls when you answer every question with the same old lame arse rehearsed answer.
Well Okra you see I was raised in a middle class family blah blah blah blah
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