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Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:41 am to JimEverett
quote:
What, exactly, are Israel's objectives and how long till they achieve them is the real question
Is it possible that US objectives and Israeli objectives happen to align here? I get why people have been of the opinion that this is Israel's war that the dragged us into, but should we not do an operation with Israel if it, in functionality, is beneficial to us both? Not to say we should always jump when Israel desires we do so, but, on the other hand, should we go so far as to not do things that maybe would benefit us just because Israel is involved?
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 9:43 am
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:41 am to AlterEd
Is that realistically achievable without ground troops?
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:42 am to geauxEdO
The bombing will last a good while. Between our military and Israel they will want to try to destroy every last piece of military hardware they can. They will want to kill every high ranking member hardline member of the regime as possible to give the people of Iran a legitimate shot at overthrowing this current regime. Sit back and relax because this will take a while.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:43 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Do you mean in terms of geography/travel or the population?
Meaning Shia radicals flooding in like an AQ/ISIS comparable
The most likely source of foreign fighters are going to be of minimal use. The proxies will have a lot of incentive to stay put I think.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:46 am to JimEverett
quote:
Is that realistically achievable without ground troops?
Remains to be seen. I would think that if they keep pummeling the upper command eventually the average soldier is going to realize there isn't any point in carrying on. This is different than previous conflicts. We have struck their upper command so hard and repeatedly that I'm pretty sure being the new Ayatollah is probably the least desired job title in the country right now. On top of that we have taken out their oil production and these troops are going to start losing their paychecks. There is also nobody in the country on the ground for them to fight.
What's the point of carrying on?
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:47 am to geauxEdO
quote:
Revolution is not happening. The Islamic regime doesn’t look to be going anywhere, whether it’s Mojtaba or his eventual successor(s).
It’s only been a week dude. We haven’t even sent in the ground forces yet.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:50 am to Pettifogger
The proxies are getting hit right now. Hamas is done and over with as a fighting group for now. Hezbollah is getting their shite pushed in right now by Israel in Lebanon. The proxies in Iraq has been bombed has been hit some. How bad I do not know but I think Israel has hit them a few times. That just leaves the Houthies and I have a feeling they will be getting hammered just as soon as the 3rd carrier group makes it to the region.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:50 am to geauxEdO
quote:
Revolution is not happening
There’s a stubborn refusal to believe the level of support that the regime has. Everyone agrees Iranians are dissatisfied, but that doesn’t negate the majority’s support for Islamism. We tend to underestimate how resilient religious cultures are.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:50 am to geauxEdO
I do believe the US military has informed the Iranian citizenry to sit tight until the US military is finished with killing the monsters and destroying everything attached to those monster. The monsters are the religious zealots and the IIRG.
It will be soon and then the Iranian people can rejoice and take back their country. I do believe they will rename it PERSIA.
It will be soon and then the Iranian people can rejoice and take back their country. I do believe they will rename it PERSIA.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:53 am to AlterEd
quote:
Remains to be seen. I would think that if they keep pummeling the upper command eventually the average soldier is going to realize there isn't any point in carrying on. This is different than previous conflicts. We have struck their upper command so hard and repeatedly that I'm pretty sure being the new Ayatollah is probably the least desired job title in the country right now. On top of that we have taken out their oil production and these troops are going to start losing their paychecks. There is also nobody in the country on the ground for them to fight.
What's the point of carrying on?
Belief is a potent thing for humans. Once the Germans lost belief that they could win in WWII, you saw massive numbers of surrendering troops. Of course, this isn't a 1 to 1 comparison because, as we all know, there were troops on the ground in Europe, but the point is that once people lose hope and belief, they tend to give up. If you can take out the entire leadership structure, seize their oil and energy production capabilities and all of this is done in a country full of people they've been bullying for decades, all while essentially doing it from the air which they're going to increasingly have less and less means to defend against, perhaps these IRGC members will start desiring to cut deals to save their own skin.
This post was edited on 3/9/26 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:53 am to geauxEdO
quote:
Revolution is not happening. The Islamic regime doesn’t look to be going anywhere, whether it’s Mojtaba or his eventual successor(s).
A counter-revolution and protests have been happening non-stop in iran since 1979... but the Mullahs have it down to a science, just go into the countryside and get the goatherders who hate the urban population with a passion and give them a uniform and guns and pay them more than they would otherwise make in a year to get on a bus into the city to murder people in the streets until they dissipate and quiet down. The more momentum to the protests, the more murders. That's what's been happening every week since 1979... it's just not constantly newsworthy to us. It would take the military turning on the Mullahs, which would then mean basically a civil war fighting those guys, and I guess the rank and file military aren't up to that... the military leadership is carefully chosen to be loyal to the Mullahs.
When arming the Kurds was mentioned, I let out a sad laugh... we just did that then abandoned them to be slaughtered in a few places over the past 20 years. They won't trust us again.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:55 am to geauxEdO
quote:
What’s the off-ramp in Iran?
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:57 am to geauxEdO
quote:Did you seriously expect to see Iranian's out & about in the streets carrying on a "full-on revolution" demanding liberation in midst of heavy bombing?
Revolution is not happening.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:57 am to RollingwiththeTide
The Lebanese are also taking out Hezbollah in Lebanon now. Iranian proxies will be finished in short order.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 9:57 am to soonerinlOUisiana
quote:
Keep killing them until they get tired of dying
Yeah, the problem with that is they live to die. They want to die for their cause.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 10:01 am to Lee B
And Iran is geographically blessed by being a kind of natural fortress... mountains with bottleneck passes in just a few places that makes invasions with armor pretty much impossible (see Iraq's attempts all through the 1980s) and on the other side, expanses of the hottest deserts on the planet, which in addition to making military convoys sitting ducks in the open screws with machinery and engines with super high temperatures, as well as creating the need for a lot of wtare and rations to cross them. If they are smart (and I don't think they are as stupid as many are assuming) they are saving air defense to repel an air invasion and not "wasting" it on repelling bombing raids... they don't care if the civilian population gets killed... they want the population to live like they're in the 9th Century, anyway, so destroying infrastructure is something they'd lprobably like to do, themselves, if it wouldn't piss off everybody and maybe cause a huge rebellion.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 10:02 am to AlterEd
It’s about time. Israel has been calling on them to disarm Hezbollah. I didn’t think they would actually do it though. Yeah if they are doing that then it’s over for Hezbollah. The regime in Iran is running out of friends that’s for sure.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 10:03 am to Judnnc
quote:
quote:
Keep killing them until they get tired of dying
Yeah, the problem with that is they live to die. They want to die for their cause.
The leaders... yes. And they couldn't care less about the lives of the population. Hamas thinks getting Gazans killed grants them martyrdom, so they try to get them killed.
Posted on 3/9/26 at 10:09 am to AlterEd
quote:
The Lebanese are also taking out Hezbollah in Lebanon now.
Where are you seeing this? Hezbollah is closely tied to their politics I don’t see this ever happening.
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