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Started By
Message
re: US Oil Reserves Drop To Lowest Level In 44 Years
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:28 pm to Timeoday
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:28 pm to Timeoday
quote:
Can you compare 1982 domestic oil production to 2026 domestic oil production? If so, please let us know.
I will bet my last dollar on the fact the USA is not nearly as dependent on foreign oil sources as it was in 1982. Please prove me wrong.
You framed the question in a pretty messy way, likely because you don't really understand the intricacies of the situation.
The primary thing you need to understand is the US has an imbalance between the type of oil it produces and the type of oil it needs.
I didn't spend a lot of time gathering data to assure its accuracy, I did simple searches, the numbers point to you being incorrect. In 1982 we used about 28% imports to cover our petro needs in the US, in 2025 we used over 30% imports to cover our domestic needs.
From a pure petroleum dependence standpoint, we are in a slightly worse position than we were in 1982 but a lot better than we were in the mid-70s.
US crude production has been more or less increasing for about 17 years year over year. During the time, domestic usage has not climbed as much. The results are the US is a net petroleum exporter, but because of the imbalance mentioned earlier, we are still importing quite a bit (6.4 to 7.3 million barrels per day).
IMO we do need to focus on petroleum independence but to do that we need to build new refineries or refit current refineries to use the oil we produce. The problem with that is it is not deemed cost-effective by the petroleum companies in the US. It will require public incentives or a major shock to the system; the latter will take a long time to overcome.
1
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:30 pm to ChatGPT of LA
quote:
Higher production draws down reserves.
I'm nor gonna sit here and educate you. You're too far behind. Do some research and check back, kid. Then we can have a semi decent exchange because your thought process will be different. Instead of thinking its panic time over reserves. It isn't
I'm not sure what you don't understand.
Oil is priced based on the global market.
If the US has to replenish hundreds of millions of barrels it will put significant upward pressure on oil prices.
The US is still planning on releasing tens of millions of addition barrels of oil from the SPR over the next few months
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:49 pm to ChatGPT of LA
quote:
Higher production draws down reserves.
WTF
Posted on 8/18/26 at 7:55 pm to LuckyTiger
Trump has to find an exit ramp with Iran
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:41 pm to ChatGPT of LA
quote:
Higher production draws down reserves.
What? After this statement, you go on to flame someone, hilarious.
quote:
I'm nor gonna sit here and educate you. You're too far behind. Do some research and check back, kid. Then we can have a semi decent exchange because your thought process will be different. Instead of thinking its panic time over reserves. It isn't
There are two main shock absorbers that are keeping crude prices stabalized this are the US and Chinese SPRs. The Chinese SPR is larger than the US SPR but they don't publish data. It is clear by their reductions in imports they are leaning on their SPR just like we are to keep prices stabilized. When the Chinese get to the point they no longer can or are willing to tap their reserves thats when the shite hits the fan. The problem is we don't know when that point will be reached, it could be tomorrow, it could be next year.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 8:45 pm to LuckyTiger
I'm not going to sweat this. But I have an EV. And utility prices are good for me so far.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:17 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
..... likely because you don't really understand ....
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:47 pm to Timeoday
Your response just cements my feeling about how much you know about the subject.
In the post I replied to you conflated US domestic oil production with US dependence on US oil imports. While there is some connection there, you fail to understand that US production increases do not have a linear relationship with US dependence on other countries for oil imports. You have to add in the factors of usage, and in this case, most importantly the imbalance between refining capacity for US produced crude and end products the US needs. If you understood those things, you wouldn't have been so cavalier as to bet your last dollar.
In the post I replied to you conflated US domestic oil production with US dependence on US oil imports. While there is some connection there, you fail to understand that US production increases do not have a linear relationship with US dependence on other countries for oil imports. You have to add in the factors of usage, and in this case, most importantly the imbalance between refining capacity for US produced crude and end products the US needs. If you understood those things, you wouldn't have been so cavalier as to bet your last dollar.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 9:49 pm to LuckyTiger
The "damage to caverns" narrative is false.
How do they pump oil out of the reserve? They pump in water. There are no unfilled parts of the "cavern".
These articles are fake concern trolling.
How do they pump oil out of the reserve? They pump in water. There are no unfilled parts of the "cavern".
These articles are fake concern trolling.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:18 pm to Obtuse1
I'll help you out...geeez
quote:
IEA Requirements and the "Days of Import Protection" Formula
Shrinking Import Shield: Under International Energy Agency (IEA) rules, member nations must hold emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net crude oil imports. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The Production Impact: As domestic hydraulic fracturing and shale drilling surged, U.S. net oil imports dropped drastically. Because the U.S. relies less on foreign oil, the statutory obligation for how much oil the SPR must strictly hold for national security decreases.
Read that slowly, absorb it, learn it.
Production domestically increases. The %of reserves mandated drops because import oil volume DECREASES, so the amount of mandate reserves drops, so we can release it, no problem.
Sleep tight kid, long day tomorrow in kindergarten
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:20 pm to Bunk Moreland
Not even 1/3rd of what Pedo Joe used.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:34 pm to OU Guy
Brian Sullivan
@SullyCNBC
Energy hot take -->
Not enough is made of consistently low natural gas prices the last few years. Nat gas goes into so much of what we buy and consume - packaging, pharma, even cosmetics.
If nat gas popped, prices would rise even more.
We are well below a few years ago.
US Oil & Gas Association
@US_OGA
Natural gas prices 1985: $2.51
Today: about $2.80
After inflation, that $2.51 from 1985 is $7.80 in today’s money.
So natural gas is actually much cheaper - about one-third of what it really cost 40 years ago.
How different things would be if the Anti-Frackers had won.....
——
Low natural gas prices is why US based data centers can have an advantage over China the Chinese can't beat.
—-
NatGas needed a year to get through the LNG startup surge but it’s back being one of the Greatest deflationary forces in North America and a true key source in our economic competitiveness.
—-
Natural gas isn't just packaging and pharma—it's the backbone of fertilizer production. Cut off cheap gas and food costs climb everywhere, because ammonia for crops depends on it. That ripple reaches your grocery bill far more than people realize.
——
Well, in 2021 Governor Walz signed a DFL bill, the Natural Gas Innovation Act aka NGIA, that begins the process to phase out the residential natural gas use in Minnesota. This bill effectively forces long term residential adoption of much more expensive electricity based on wind and solar generation in Minnesota.
So the democrats found another way to stop natural gas.
@SullyCNBC
Energy hot take -->
Not enough is made of consistently low natural gas prices the last few years. Nat gas goes into so much of what we buy and consume - packaging, pharma, even cosmetics.
If nat gas popped, prices would rise even more.
We are well below a few years ago.
US Oil & Gas Association
@US_OGA
Natural gas prices 1985: $2.51
Today: about $2.80
After inflation, that $2.51 from 1985 is $7.80 in today’s money.
So natural gas is actually much cheaper - about one-third of what it really cost 40 years ago.
How different things would be if the Anti-Frackers had won.....
——
Low natural gas prices is why US based data centers can have an advantage over China the Chinese can't beat.
—-
NatGas needed a year to get through the LNG startup surge but it’s back being one of the Greatest deflationary forces in North America and a true key source in our economic competitiveness.
—-
Natural gas isn't just packaging and pharma—it's the backbone of fertilizer production. Cut off cheap gas and food costs climb everywhere, because ammonia for crops depends on it. That ripple reaches your grocery bill far more than people realize.
——
Well, in 2021 Governor Walz signed a DFL bill, the Natural Gas Innovation Act aka NGIA, that begins the process to phase out the residential natural gas use in Minnesota. This bill effectively forces long term residential adoption of much more expensive electricity based on wind and solar generation in Minnesota.
So the democrats found another way to stop natural gas.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:36 pm to ChatGPT of LA
quote:
Read that slowly, absorb it, learn it.
I did that exact thing with your initial statement:
quote:
Higher production draws down reserves.
Precision of language is important, especially when one is in the process of climbing onto a high horse.
You went to the trouble of including an IEA regulation, but it does not support your statement as written. Increased production does lower the mandatory minimum for the SPR; what it does not have is an accompanying regulation that requires the SPR to be drawn down to that minimum. Increased production does not "draw down reserves". It allows it but does not mandate it, so there is not a direct relationship as you suggested.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 10:58 pm to ragincajun03
This is correct.
Analysts are also projecting almost record oil supply by YE 2027. Oil prices are up now but are in backwardarion, and have been for a while.
Analysts are also projecting almost record oil supply by YE 2027. Oil prices are up now but are in backwardarion, and have been for a while.
This post was edited on 8/18/26 at 11:05 pm
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:03 pm to Potchafa
They most certainly have, thanks to Trump's war of his own making and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while continuing to tap the strategic oil reserve in an effort to relax escalating gas prices at the pump in lead-up to the midterm elections.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:09 pm to doubleb
The issue regarding the Srategic reserve concerning to me is not the drops/releases.
It is that in 2025, only 19m was added. According to google 200m can be added in a calender year.
How were we not max filling the Reserve while planning a war in the Middle East?
It is that in 2025, only 19m was added. According to google 200m can be added in a calender year.
How were we not max filling the Reserve while planning a war in the Middle East?
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:10 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
We still import 8 million bpd.
I don’t think it’s that much.
The kind of oil we import is needed for certain refineries since we can’t supply enough of certain kinds with our own production.
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:28 pm to Obtuse1
It allows the drawdown clown, which we do without issue.
Net result, lower reserves directly attributed to higher domestic production...cause/causation
So yes, my original comment stands...firmly.
Trump sold, and was able to, because we were above the mandatory, because high domestic production (less foreign import) creates it.
No panic needed, just a little forward thinking by our strong minded leadership
Net result, lower reserves directly attributed to higher domestic production...cause/causation
So yes, my original comment stands...firmly.
Trump sold, and was able to, because we were above the mandatory, because high domestic production (less foreign import) creates it.
No panic needed, just a little forward thinking by our strong minded leadership
Posted on 8/18/26 at 11:58 pm to ChatGPT of LA
You're conflating in every direction.
Increased domestic production does not necessarily lead to a decrease in foreign imports.
If we're importing less foreign oil, yes, the mandatory SPR minimum will reflect that, but there is no mandatory or typical "draw down" to that minimum. During times of stability, Congress may call for a sale of some of the SPR to fund legislation, etc.., but we're never drawing down for shits and giggles.
You got the how part right but you don't understand why he sold.
Increased domestic production does not necessarily lead to a decrease in foreign imports.
If we're importing less foreign oil, yes, the mandatory SPR minimum will reflect that, but there is no mandatory or typical "draw down" to that minimum. During times of stability, Congress may call for a sale of some of the SPR to fund legislation, etc.., but we're never drawing down for shits and giggles.
quote:
Trump sold, and was able to, because we were above the mandatory, because high domestic production (less foreign import) creates it.
You got the how part right but you don't understand why he sold.
This post was edited on 8/19/26 at 12:01 am
Posted on 8/19/26 at 12:23 am to LuckyTiger
You can Biden for this…
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