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re: Twitter/Musk deal hanging on by a thread. Twitter fraud on bot #s may sink the deal.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:34 am to BayouBlitz
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:34 am to BayouBlitz
As some recall, I have a weekly meeting with our social and marketing teams.
This morning, I brought this topic up as a point of interest noting that the fake account numbers are certainly higher than 5% as pledged, realistically 25%, and not implausible over 50%.
Instead of concern about deception, overvalued ads, etc... I get...
Musk is crazy and stupid. Musk committed securities fraud. Musk violated NDA. Musk this musk that. I asked them to just reflect and think about why he would be doing this, and they absolutely cannot think out of their tiny little worldview.
This is what we are up against. People with the platform create the story, these users spread it, and their followers treat them as a reliable source (and so on). "I heard that..." The rest of us are consumers with barely any footprint to do much about it, and just get squashed by the volume of traffic from their side.
This morning, I brought this topic up as a point of interest noting that the fake account numbers are certainly higher than 5% as pledged, realistically 25%, and not implausible over 50%.
Instead of concern about deception, overvalued ads, etc... I get...
Musk is crazy and stupid. Musk committed securities fraud. Musk violated NDA. Musk this musk that. I asked them to just reflect and think about why he would be doing this, and they absolutely cannot think out of their tiny little worldview.
This is what we are up against. People with the platform create the story, these users spread it, and their followers treat them as a reliable source (and so on). "I heard that..." The rest of us are consumers with barely any footprint to do much about it, and just get squashed by the volume of traffic from their side.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:43 am to Gcockboi
quote:
What's funny is they cry about Russian bots, but these are all liberal bot. They literally accuse what they're doing on the other side.
ALWAYS.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:45 am to GumboPot
quote:
Twitter/Musk deal hanging on by a thread. Twitter fraud on bot #s may sink the deal.
i think he really does want to buy it, but he isnt stupid and will buy it at its real value and not its overly inflated numbers they claim it to be
i dont think they can survive now if he doesnt buy it so they must comply and open their books which will lead to a major comeuppance to those running it now
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:46 am to concrete_tiger
I pulled this from Twitter’s most recent annual report. LINK
Good luck using this as an excuse.
quote:
NOTE REGARDING KEY METRICS
We review a number of metrics, including monetizable daily active usage or users, or mDAU, changes in ad engagements and changes in cost per ad engagement, to evaluate our business, measure our performance, identify trends affecting our business, formulate business plans and make strategic decisions. See the section titled “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations— Key Metrics” for a discussion of how we calculate mDAU, changes in ad engagements and changes in cost per ad engagement.
We define mDAU as people, organizations, or other accounts who logged in or were otherwise authenticated and accessed Twitter on any given day through twitter.com or Twitter applications that are able to show ads. Average mDAU for a period represents the number of mDAU on each day of such period divided by the number of days for such period. Changes in mDAU are a measure of changes in the size of our daily logged in or otherwise authenticated active total accounts. To calculate the year-over-year change in mDAU, we subtract the average mDAU for the three months ended in the previous year from the average mDAU for the same three months ended in the current year and divide the result by the average mDAU for the three months ended in the previous year. Additionally, our calculation of mDAU is not based on any standardized industry methodology and is not necessarily calculated in the same manner or comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other companies. Similarly, our measures of mDAU growth and engagement may differ from estimates published by third parties or from similarly-titled metrics of our competitors due to differences in methodology.
The numbers of mDAU presented in this Annual Report on Form 10-K are based on internal company data. While these numbers are based on what we believe to be reasonable estimates for the applicable period of measurement, there are inherent challenges in measuring usage and engagement across our large number of total accounts around the world. Furthermore, our metrics may be impacted by our information quality efforts, which are our overall efforts to reduce malicious activity on the service, inclusive of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. For example, there are a number of false or spam accounts in existence on our platform. We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the fourth quarter of 2020 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter. In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated. We are continually seeking to improve our ability to estimate the total number of spam accounts and eliminate them from the calculation of our mDAU, and have made improvements in our spam detection capabilities that have resulted in the suspension of a large number of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. We intend to continue to make such improvements. After we determine an account is spam, malicious automation, or fake, we stop counting it in our mDAU, or other related metrics. We also treat multiple accounts held by a single person or organization as multiple mDAU because we permit people and organizations to have more than one account. Additionally, some accounts used by organizations are used by many people within the organization. As such, the calculations of our mDAU may not accurately reflect the actual number of people or organizations using our platform.
In addition, geographic location data collected for purposes of reporting the geographic location of our mDAU is based on the IP address or phone number associated with the account when an account is initially registered on Twitter. The IP address or phone number may not always accurately reflect a person’s actual location at the time they engaged with our platform. For example, someone accessing Twitter from the location of the proxy server that the person connects to rather than from the person’s actual location.
We regularly review and may adjust our processes for calculating our internal metrics to improve their accuracy.
Good luck using this as an excuse.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:46 am to SelaTiger
quote:
I don’t think he ever really wanted to buy.
Highly unlikely. I have some colleagues on the deal team for this and everyone is pretty surprised at what's coming out. Musk wouldn't have spun this whole thing up, which is costing him and investors quite a bit of money in DD alone, just to prove a point. And I say that not because he cares about wasting the money, but because Musk has regular people he deals with for financing and they would be wholly pissed if this was just a game. Every experience I've personally had with Musk (all via Tesla) tells me he doesn't roll like that.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:46 am to concrete_tiger
There has been quite a bit of activity analysis on it, and included largely inactive accounts the upper limit is usually around 20%.
If you don't include people who never tweet you end up around 12-15%.
50% is ... no.
If you don't include people who never tweet you end up around 12-15%.
50% is ... no.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:52 am to jonnyanony
quote:
There has been quite a bit of activity analysis on it, and included largely inactive accounts the upper limit is usually around 20%.
If you don't include people who never tweet you end up around 12-15%.
50% is ... no.
I am on twitter and have never sent a tweet. I am not a bot. I use it to see both sides of conversations.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:03 am to jonnyanony
quote:
There has been quite a bit of activity analysis on it, and included largely inactive accounts the upper limit is usually around 20%.
If you don't include people who never tweet you end up around 12-15%.
50% is ... no.
You cannot say, "no," but you can say "implausible."
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:16 am to Decatur
quote:
Good luck using this as an excuse.
This was their filing admitting to their fraud in previous filings.
Musk is implying that it's much, much higher...and he's implying that they know...and he's openly stating he is waiting for this information to be provided to him because his offer is dependent on it.
Twitter is in a really tough spot. If they lie again they are going to be sued into oblivion. If they tell the truth (assuming Musk is right), they are going to be sued into oblivion. What do you think Twitter's options are?
It's pretty obvious that your post is you wishing that is not the case. But, you are pretty clearly out of your element.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:19 am to moneyg
Rexcatur doesn't like Elon anymore. 
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:19 am to GumboPot
If anything he’s showing the incompetence of Twitter which is glorious
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:23 am to moneyg
quote:
This was their filing admitting to their fraud in previous filings.
It’s the same language in the previous reports I looked at.
quote:
he's openly stating he is waiting for this information to be provided to him because his offer is dependent on it.
His offer has already been accepted. This is something he should have considered prior to making his offer.
quote:
But, you are pretty clearly out of your element
I’m definitely no M&A expert. But common sense tells me Elon Musk already knew everything he knows or doesn’t know now yet he still signed a merger agreement. He could have done more due diligence but apparently made the decision not to do that before obligating himself.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:24 am to Gcockboi
quote:
What's funny is they cry about Russian bots, but these are all liberal bot. They literally accuse what they're doing on the other side.
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:25 am to GumboPot
Win/Win for Musk
Expose Twitter and/or get it cheaper
Expose Twitter and/or get it cheaper
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:28 am to GumboPot
Musk is a globalist he doesn’t care about your free speech or the people. He is a two face egotistical psychopath
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:30 am to Decatur
quote:
I’m definitely no M&A expert. But common sense tells me Elon Musk already knew everything he knows or doesn’t know now yet he still signed a merger agreement. He could have done more due diligence but apparently made the decision not to do that before obligating himself.
If the deal hasn't closed yet he would be stupid not to keep performing due diligence as new information comes to light
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:30 am to jchamil
quote:No No it's too late Rexcatur says so!
If the deal hasn't closed yet he would be stupid not to keep performing due diligence as new information comes to light
Posted on 5/17/22 at 12:36 pm to GumboPot
How many companies went woke or apologized due to pressure from twitter trends? When in reality it wasn’t even real consumers, just algorithms created by a handful of people pushing a radical agenda
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