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re: Twitter/Musk deal hanging on by a thread. Twitter fraud on bot #s may sink the deal.

Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:34 am to
Posted by concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
7477 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:34 am to
As some recall, I have a weekly meeting with our social and marketing teams.

This morning, I brought this topic up as a point of interest noting that the fake account numbers are certainly higher than 5% as pledged, realistically 25%, and not implausible over 50%.

Instead of concern about deception, overvalued ads, etc... I get...

Musk is crazy and stupid. Musk committed securities fraud. Musk violated NDA. Musk this musk that. I asked them to just reflect and think about why he would be doing this, and they absolutely cannot think out of their tiny little worldview.

This is what we are up against. People with the platform create the story, these users spread it, and their followers treat them as a reliable source (and so on). "I heard that..." The rest of us are consumers with barely any footprint to do much about it, and just get squashed by the volume of traffic from their side.
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa-Here to Serve
Member since Aug 2012
17137 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:43 am to
quote:

What's funny is they cry about Russian bots, but these are all liberal bot. They literally accuse what they're doing on the other side.




ALWAYS.
Posted by bamarep
Member since Nov 2013
52562 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:45 am to
Willfully ignorant
Posted by keakar
Member since Jan 2017
30152 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:45 am to
quote:

Twitter/Musk deal hanging on by a thread. Twitter fraud on bot #s may sink the deal.


i think he really does want to buy it, but he isnt stupid and will buy it at its real value and not its overly inflated numbers they claim it to be

i dont think they can survive now if he doesnt buy it so they must comply and open their books which will lead to a major comeuppance to those running it now
Posted by Decatur
Member since Mar 2007
32762 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:46 am to
I pulled this from Twitter’s most recent annual report. LINK

quote:

NOTE REGARDING KEY METRICS
We review a number of metrics, including monetizable daily active usage or users, or mDAU, changes in ad engagements and changes in cost per ad engagement, to evaluate our business, measure our performance, identify trends affecting our business, formulate business plans and make strategic decisions. See the section titled “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations— Key Metrics” for a discussion of how we calculate mDAU, changes in ad engagements and changes in cost per ad engagement.

We define mDAU as people, organizations, or other accounts who logged in or were otherwise authenticated and accessed Twitter on any given day through twitter.com or Twitter applications that are able to show ads. Average mDAU for a period represents the number of mDAU on each day of such period divided by the number of days for such period. Changes in mDAU are a measure of changes in the size of our daily logged in or otherwise authenticated active total accounts. To calculate the year-over-year change in mDAU, we subtract the average mDAU for the three months ended in the previous year from the average mDAU for the same three months ended in the current year and divide the result by the average mDAU for the three months ended in the previous year. Additionally, our calculation of mDAU is not based on any standardized industry methodology and is not necessarily calculated in the same manner or comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other companies. Similarly, our measures of mDAU growth and engagement may differ from estimates published by third parties or from similarly-titled metrics of our competitors due to differences in methodology.

The numbers of mDAU presented in this Annual Report on Form 10-K are based on internal company data. While these numbers are based on what we believe to be reasonable estimates for the applicable period of measurement, there are inherent challenges in measuring usage and engagement across our large number of total accounts around the world. Furthermore, our metrics may be impacted by our information quality efforts, which are our overall efforts to reduce malicious activity on the service, inclusive of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. For example, there are a number of false or spam accounts in existence on our platform. We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the fourth quarter of 2020 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter. In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated. We are continually seeking to improve our ability to estimate the total number of spam accounts and eliminate them from the calculation of our mDAU, and have made improvements in our spam detection capabilities that have resulted in the suspension of a large number of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. We intend to continue to make such improvements. After we determine an account is spam, malicious automation, or fake, we stop counting it in our mDAU, or other related metrics. We also treat multiple accounts held by a single person or organization as multiple mDAU because we permit people and organizations to have more than one account. Additionally, some accounts used by organizations are used by many people within the organization. As such, the calculations of our mDAU may not accurately reflect the actual number of people or organizations using our platform.

In addition, geographic location data collected for purposes of reporting the geographic location of our mDAU is based on the IP address or phone number associated with the account when an account is initially registered on Twitter. The IP address or phone number may not always accurately reflect a person’s actual location at the time they engaged with our platform. For example, someone accessing Twitter from the location of the proxy server that the person connects to rather than from the person’s actual location.

We regularly review and may adjust our processes for calculating our internal metrics to improve their accuracy.


Good luck using this as an excuse.
Posted by billjamin
Houston
Member since Jun 2019
18093 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:46 am to
quote:

I don’t think he ever really wanted to buy.

Highly unlikely. I have some colleagues on the deal team for this and everyone is pretty surprised at what's coming out. Musk wouldn't have spun this whole thing up, which is costing him and investors quite a bit of money in DD alone, just to prove a point. And I say that not because he cares about wasting the money, but because Musk has regular people he deals with for financing and they would be wholly pissed if this was just a game. Every experience I've personally had with Musk (all via Tesla) tells me he doesn't roll like that.
Posted by jonnyanony
Member since Nov 2020
15223 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:46 am to
There has been quite a bit of activity analysis on it, and included largely inactive accounts the upper limit is usually around 20%.

If you don't include people who never tweet you end up around 12-15%.

50% is ... no.
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa-Here to Serve
Member since Aug 2012
17137 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:52 am to
quote:

There has been quite a bit of activity analysis on it, and included largely inactive accounts the upper limit is usually around 20%.

If you don't include people who never tweet you end up around 12-15%.

50% is ... no.



I am on twitter and have never sent a tweet. I am not a bot. I use it to see both sides of conversations.
Posted by Decatur
Member since Mar 2007
32762 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 10:53 am to
Team #NeverTweet
Posted by concrete_tiger
Member since May 2020
7477 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:03 am to
quote:

There has been quite a bit of activity analysis on it, and included largely inactive accounts the upper limit is usually around 20%.

If you don't include people who never tweet you end up around 12-15%.

50% is ... no.


You cannot say, "no," but you can say "implausible."
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
63090 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:16 am to
quote:

Good luck using this as an excuse.



This was their filing admitting to their fraud in previous filings.

Musk is implying that it's much, much higher...and he's implying that they know...and he's openly stating he is waiting for this information to be provided to him because his offer is dependent on it.

Twitter is in a really tough spot. If they lie again they are going to be sued into oblivion. If they tell the truth (assuming Musk is right), they are going to be sued into oblivion. What do you think Twitter's options are?


It's pretty obvious that your post is you wishing that is not the case. But, you are pretty clearly out of your element.
Posted by Jbird
Shoot the tires out!
Member since Oct 2012
90772 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:19 am to
Rexcatur doesn't like Elon anymore.
Posted by lsuson
Metairie
Member since Oct 2013
15353 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:19 am to
If anything he’s showing the incompetence of Twitter which is glorious
Posted by Decatur
Member since Mar 2007
32762 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:23 am to
quote:

This was their filing admitting to their fraud in previous filings.


It’s the same language in the previous reports I looked at.

quote:

he's openly stating he is waiting for this information to be provided to him because his offer is dependent on it.


His offer has already been accepted. This is something he should have considered prior to making his offer.

quote:

But, you are pretty clearly out of your element


I’m definitely no M&A expert. But common sense tells me Elon Musk already knew everything he knows or doesn’t know now yet he still signed a merger agreement. He could have done more due diligence but apparently made the decision not to do that before obligating himself.
Posted by VoxDawg
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
77768 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:24 am to
quote:

What's funny is they cry about Russian bots, but these are all liberal bot. They literally accuse what they're doing on the other side.

Posted by jcaz
Laffy
Member since Aug 2014
19301 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:25 am to
Win/Win for Musk
Expose Twitter and/or get it cheaper
Posted by GeauxZone90
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2010
3639 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:28 am to
Musk is a globalist he doesn’t care about your free speech or the people. He is a two face egotistical psychopath
Posted by jchamil
Member since Nov 2009
19509 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:30 am to
quote:

I’m definitely no M&A expert. But common sense tells me Elon Musk already knew everything he knows or doesn’t know now yet he still signed a merger agreement. He could have done more due diligence but apparently made the decision not to do that before obligating himself.



If the deal hasn't closed yet he would be stupid not to keep performing due diligence as new information comes to light
Posted by Jbird
Shoot the tires out!
Member since Oct 2012
90772 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 11:30 am to
quote:

If the deal hasn't closed yet he would be stupid not to keep performing due diligence as new information comes to light
No No it's too late Rexcatur says so!
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102781 posts
Posted on 5/17/22 at 12:36 pm to
How many companies went woke or apologized due to pressure from twitter trends? When in reality it wasn’t even real consumers, just algorithms created by a handful of people pushing a radical agenda
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