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re: Trump is destroying China’s economy
Posted on 7/28/19 at 10:28 am to Lsujacket66
Posted on 7/28/19 at 10:28 am to Lsujacket66
What isn’t disclosed are the actual numbers that reflect the true debt which some analyst say could be as high as $6T.
Total debt relative to national output surged to 253 percent in mid-2018, from only 140 percent a decade earlier, according to the Bank for International Settlements. No emerging economy since the 1990s has had such an outsize debt expansion and survived a disaster (Bank for Int’l Settlements).
Total debt relative to national output surged to 253 percent in mid-2018, from only 140 percent a decade earlier, according to the Bank for International Settlements. No emerging economy since the 1990s has had such an outsize debt expansion and survived a disaster (Bank for Int’l Settlements).
1
Posted on 7/28/19 at 10:29 am to Wtxtiger
quote:
China is building 6 aircraft carriers. The only thing that is for is to intimidate countries like The Philippines and Vietnam. They are building subs like crazy and who knows how many nukes they have. They have been saying they have 300 nukes for 20 years.
China is using their industrial spying to gain military technology and are using the belt and road program to build naval bases to re-supply their ships.
China is in a NAZI Germany style military buildup now as we speak. We must stop them before they get too big to stop. They will be the end of us.
Only a fool does not see China for the threat they are.
Don't forget about their One Belt One Road strategy to link China and the rest of Asia to the EU. China says that it is building up its navy to protect the sea lanes to China but that also means that it can use that navy to harass those sea lanes and bully other asian countries to use the Belt Road, but that is Europe's and Asia's problem.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 10:33 am to WeeWee
Good thing Lord Trump is fighting for us.
This post was edited on 7/28/19 at 10:33 am
Posted on 7/28/19 at 10:41 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:
China's not going to take to kindly to being isolated.
Historically trade wars lead to real wars if one side feels cut-off or decimated.
China was dominating the market and no US leader was challenging the status quo among American companies selling out over there.
It's worth the gamble to isolate China, they have a history and DNA for it but so did Japan before they decided to take matters into their own hands.
We hold are the cards militarily speaking. In the next ten years China will only have three aircraft carriers and those only equal the power of one US carrier. We have eleven. The US has a lot more nukes and a much better ballistic missile shield. Unlike in 1941 when Japan was stronger than the USA, the USA is stronger than China. China would no bet suicidal enough to go to war with the US, but they might try to bully Vietnam, Thailand, etc but that is not our problem.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 10:48 am to WeeWee
Btw related to this... I saw a study that said a flat 25% tax on all China products would raise gdp like 167Billion and add 1 million jobs in 4 years with little to no price inflation.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 11:05 am to Lsujacket66
DJT is playing the economic angle. He knows they need us more than we need them.
Xi is playing the political angle. He doesn't have to answer to anyone. If a Democrat other than Gabbard wins in 2020, or a swamp creature from either party wins in 2025, the new President will put China's interests ahead of our own and they can get at least some of the manufacturing back. And if they can't hold out through 2025 they can bend the knee and cut their losses.
There is no economic downside for the US. If China bends the knee we're better off. If they hold out, manufacturing moves to other, less hostile countries and we recover some of our manufacturing base.
Xi is playing the political angle. He doesn't have to answer to anyone. If a Democrat other than Gabbard wins in 2020, or a swamp creature from either party wins in 2025, the new President will put China's interests ahead of our own and they can get at least some of the manufacturing back. And if they can't hold out through 2025 they can bend the knee and cut their losses.
There is no economic downside for the US. If China bends the knee we're better off. If they hold out, manufacturing moves to other, less hostile countries and we recover some of our manufacturing base.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 11:06 am to Lsujacket66
If you want a real indicator of what I’d happening to the Chinese economy, start looking at the unprecedented number of bank defaults that is happening and what are the underlying causes of that to happen.
Their banking system has always been heavily supported by the government and the amount of depth that is being carried local Chinese companies are astronomical. In the past their high annual GDP helped cover this up, but as it slows they are having to use a larger and larger percentage to pay this depth premium.
As the economy slides, companies default. As more default, it puts a greater strain on their baking system because they are all intertwined. This eventually forces bank default due to lack of liquidity.
We have already seen 2 rather large banks default and it is being hinted that there are multiple that will crash by the end of the year.
If the banks see a full scale bank run, there is no amount of government help that will stop it. Once that happens their issue will escalate and I would expect to their “real” GDP crash.
Their banking system has always been heavily supported by the government and the amount of depth that is being carried local Chinese companies are astronomical. In the past their high annual GDP helped cover this up, but as it slows they are having to use a larger and larger percentage to pay this depth premium.
As the economy slides, companies default. As more default, it puts a greater strain on their baking system because they are all intertwined. This eventually forces bank default due to lack of liquidity.
We have already seen 2 rather large banks default and it is being hinted that there are multiple that will crash by the end of the year.
If the banks see a full scale bank run, there is no amount of government help that will stop it. Once that happens their issue will escalate and I would expect to their “real” GDP crash.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 11:32 am to laxtonto
quote:
In the past their high annual GDP helped cover this up, but as it slows they are having to use a larger and larger percentage to pay this depth premium.
Its actually worse than that, most new loans are just to consolidate old debt and kick the can down the road cause they cant even pay the nut each quarter.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 11:35 am to CoachDon
quote:
Total debt relative to national output surged to 253 percent in mid-2018,
As of June 2019 it is now 304% and no one knows exact extent of the shadow banking so its not measured to the true extent.
And you are right, Japan lost a decade, and is still losing, and they were not close to these levels.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 12:11 pm to Gaspergou202
quote:
but the “wrong” customer takes all the “right” money to your competitors. This can lead to the “right” company “wrongly” having to file for bankruptcy.
Right, which is why my post says customers aren’t always right, BUT they are the customer.
Simple enough right?
Posted on 7/28/19 at 12:57 pm to Sunbeam
From what I’ve read, the subs are not deep water, oceanic subs like we have, but rather subs designed to own the seas around China.
They cannot compete with the US Navy and it would more than likely be prohibitively expensive to do so. However, it would be troubling if they owned the shallow waters that link the pacific to the Indian Ocean.
They cannot compete with the US Navy and it would more than likely be prohibitively expensive to do so. However, it would be troubling if they owned the shallow waters that link the pacific to the Indian Ocean.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 2:10 pm to Lsujacket66
and he is potentially f’ing with our economy too regarding the deficit. he does not care as long as he is making $$$$$. trump cares about trump——not you!!!
Posted on 7/28/19 at 2:14 pm to AlceeFortier
quote:
trump cares about trump——not you!!!
You mean trump possesses a staple of human nature?
THE HORROR!
Guess what buddy? Damn near EVERYONE is in it for themselves.
Quick. One of us has to die. Right now. Bullet to the dome. You, or me.
You get to choose.
Do I die? Or do you die?
Posted on 7/28/19 at 2:16 pm to Lsujacket66
You have to wonder how long Xi will let the bleeding continue.
His arrogance and pride must know no bounds if he's too Niave to realize the importance of the US buying demand and role in their previous financial success.
His arrogance and pride must know no bounds if he's too Niave to realize the importance of the US buying demand and role in their previous financial success.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 2:37 pm to AlceeFortier
Ha ha but you probably thought Obama and Hilldabeast cared about you more. Trump actually cares more about the people than any other president in a very very long time. Stop believing the lies you are fed and think for yourself.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 2:57 pm to Gaspergou202
quote:
The US handed them the gold ring
I have to believe that they paid somebody for it.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 2:59 pm to Lsujacket66
The only thing saving China at this point would be a Biden Presidency. He would bend right over for them for sure
Posted on 7/28/19 at 2:59 pm to keks tadpole
quote:
I have to believe that they paid somebody for it.
They sure did. This bitch!
Posted on 7/28/19 at 3:01 pm to Lsujacket66
The Dems are salivating over the dollars coming their way from Cook, if the USA exempts Apple.
Posted on 7/28/19 at 3:22 pm to Lsujacket66
The financial world is not political. The lefties I know are all in on combating the Xi regime. They are the most dangerous people in power since Hitler. And they are gunning for us. I fully support alienating communism despite the "neo con" label that comes with it.
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