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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/8/24 at 1:18 pm to Houag80
BREAKING TRUMP UP FIVE POINTS ON CUM ALLAH!
Rasmussen
Trump 49
Harris 44
Rasmussen
Trump 49
Harris 44
Posted on 8/8/24 at 2:31 pm to AulderMagee
Posted on 8/8/24 at 3:36 pm to Jon Ham
Posted on 8/8/24 at 3:50 pm to TheBeezer
quote:
2 words... RESPONSE BIAS
This needs to be discussed
Election day 2020... Biden was supposed to win the rust belt states by like 7-10 points (WI, MI, PA)
They all ended up within like 2-3 points or less margins
If the current polling still replicates that 4-6 point miss towards the D side... that amounts to a Trump lead by respectable margins in all if those key states
And I still throw out that Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll that was a complete anomaly
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 4:17 pm
Posted on 8/8/24 at 3:54 pm to Jon Ham
Only Fun Bunch, roadGator, and Bucky Cheese will believe anything you post moving forward.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 3:59 pm to GumboPot
Yes, that CNBC and Rasmussen national polls released today are really good for Trump, but for whatever reason the betting market on PredIct seems unaffected with Harris currently maintaining an 11 cent lead, up from yesterday and this morning.
Decent chance I move it to “tossup” tomorrow morning if not before.
Decent chance I move it to “tossup” tomorrow morning if not before.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 4:13 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
I welcome others’ opinions
Liar
Posted on 8/8/24 at 4:17 pm to Jon Ham
run back to DU clown. nobody wants you here.
Posted on 8/8/24 at 4:20 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
Yes, that CNBC and Rasmussen national polls released today are really good for Trump, but for whatever reason the betting market on PredIct seems unaffected with Harris currently maintaining an 11 cent lead, up from yesterday and this morning.
PredictIt is reactionary and the "reaction" today has been the weird Marquette poll over those two (because it was the strangest). MU poll was taken at the end of July, while the CNBC and Rass were in August
Posted on 8/8/24 at 4:27 pm to Jon Ham
lol
Posted on 8/8/24 at 4:27 pm to Jon Ham
They’re just balancing the book
Posted on 8/9/24 at 8:43 am to Jon Ham
UPDATE
8/09 8:43 am CT: Tossup
New CNBC and Rasmussen polls have Trump up nationally +2 and +5 respectively.
New Reuters poll has Harris up 5 nationally.
If we toss out the Reuters and Rasmussen polls for being the recent outliers, the average of the recent national polls has Harris up 2. Trump won 2016 while losing the popular vote by 2%.
Betting markets on the balance show Harris as a slight favorite. Despite the Trump-favorable CNBC and Rasmussen polls, Harris has become a stronger favorite on PredictIt since yesterday’s update, now with a 10 cent lead.
8/09 8:43 am CT: Tossup
New CNBC and Rasmussen polls have Trump up nationally +2 and +5 respectively.
New Reuters poll has Harris up 5 nationally.
If we toss out the Reuters and Rasmussen polls for being the recent outliers, the average of the recent national polls has Harris up 2. Trump won 2016 while losing the popular vote by 2%.
Betting markets on the balance show Harris as a slight favorite. Despite the Trump-favorable CNBC and Rasmussen polls, Harris has become a stronger favorite on PredictIt since yesterday’s update, now with a 10 cent lead.
This post was edited on 8/9/24 at 8:44 am
Posted on 8/9/24 at 8:53 am to Jon Ham
I don’t think national polls are going to change betting markets that much. The polls coming out of AZ, GA, NC, PA, WI, MI, and NV are the things to watch
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:00 am to Jon Ham
Polling doesn’t matter until the second half of October.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:00 am to VOR
quote:
Polling doesn’t matter until the second half of October.
A full third of the electorate will have already voted by then.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:08 am to Indefatigable
quote:That fact is an absurdity. What a joke the election process has become.
A full third of the electorate will have already voted by then
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:09 am to Jake88
No disagreement there. I’m even fine with early in person voting windows. Key being in person.
Vote by mail except in rare exceptions for the elderly, etc., military/overseas voters is ridiculous to me.
Vote by mail except in rare exceptions for the elderly, etc., military/overseas voters is ridiculous to me.
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:10 am to Jon Ham
Literally nobody asked for this thread but go off twink
Posted on 8/9/24 at 9:11 am to AUbused
quote:
AUbused
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